SUTRA June 2003 Indicators and Scenarios

Today The objectives of SUTRA SUTRA and the DPSIR framework The set of indicators The set of scenarios The methodology for the economic assessment

The objectives of SUTRA Model-based elaborations of scenarios of urban development using transport, emission, air quality, energy system analysis, health and economic assessment modules Set of indicators used for baseline analysis, ranking and benchmarking

Questions How to define the set of indicators? How to define the set of scenarios?

DPSIR: a conceptual framework

Markal Visum Ofis ESS Vadis Public Health Concentrations (O 3 ) Economic Assess. Morbidity, mortality (pollution and direct and indirect costs of transportation Emissions Consumption of fossil fuelsExposition to noise Stress indicators time loss for congestion Demography Land-use Economy Technology Demand Emissions (OD matrix) Concentrations (CO et al) TREM IN  DRIVING FORCES  RESPONSES OUT  PRESSURES  STATE  IMPACTS

The set of indicators Consistent with the DPSIR framework and the current literature Summarising all the information contained in the input and output of all models otraffic, emission, air quality, energy system analysis, health, economic assessment used in SUTRA

The set of indicators Driving forces Economic, demographic, land-use variables Pressures Transport demand and emissions (CO2, NOx, VOC, CO, PM10) State Air quality (concentration of pollutants), noise and stress indicators (jams, overcrowded public transports) Impacts Mortality and morbidity, direct and external costs Responses Car occupancy, public vs. private transport, market penetration of new technologies (EV, HEV, FCEV)

The set of indicators Driving forces Economic, demographic, land-use variables Pressures Transport demand and emissions (CO 2, NO x, VOC, CO, PM 10 ) State Air quality (concentration of pollutants), noise and stress indicators (jams, overcrowded public transports) Impacts Mortality and morbidity, direct and external costs Responses Car occupancy, public vs. private transport, market penetration of new technologies (EV, HEV, FCEV)

The set of indicators Driving forces Economic, demographic, land-use variables Pressures Transport demand and emissions (CO 2, NO x, VOC, CO, PM 10 ) State Air quality (concentration of pollutants), noise and stress indicators (jams, overcrowded public transports) Impacts Mortality and morbidity, direct and external costs Responses Car occupancy, public vs. private transport, market penetration of new technologies (EV, HEV, FCEV)

The set of indicators Driving forces Economic, demographic, land-use variables Pressures Transport demand and emissions (CO 2, NO x, VOC, CO, PM 10 ) State Air quality (concentration of pollutants), noise and stress indicators (jams, overcrowded public transports) Impacts Mortality and morbidity, direct and external costs Responses Car occupancy, public vs. private transport, market penetration of new technologies (EV, HEV, FCEV)

The set of indicators Driving forces Economic, demographic, land-use variables Pressures Transport demand and emissions (CO 2, NO x, VOC, CO, PM 10 ) State Air quality (concentration of pollutants), noise and stress indicators (jams, overcrowded public transports) Impacts Mortality and morbidity, direct and external costs Responses Car occupancy, public vs. private transport, market penetration of new technologies (EV, HEV, FCEV)

The set of indicators Driving forces Economic, demographic, land-use variables Pressures Transport demand and emissions State Air quality (concentration of pollutants), noise and stress indicators Impacts Mortality and morbidity, direct and external costs Responses Car occupancy, public vs. private transport, market penetration of new technologies (EV, HEV, FCEV)

Scenarios Changes in a set of external driving forces and policy decisions Translation into model input variables and parameters

Defining future urban scenarios: 4 big issues Demographic changes Economic structure changes Technological changes Land-use changes Each issue is defined by a set of parameters which vary within a interval of sensible values

Demographic scenarios Two issues oDemographic urban growth and decline oThe ageing of urban population

Urban growth and decline 156%74% Source: Camb. Econometrics

Urban ageing Source: UNDP

Economic scenarios Three issues oEconomic growth oShift towards services oIncreasing use of telework

Towards a 100% service economy Source: Camb. Econometrics

Increasing teleworking? Home based-teleworkers one full day per week Occasional teleworkers less than one full day per week In Europe (ECaTT, % of total labour force) % teleworkers, 2% home-based % teleworkers, 4.2% home-based High variety of situations Finland home-based, from 6.7% to 16.7% Spainhome-based from 1.3% to 2.7%

Land use scenarios Two issues oUrban sprawl densification of less-developed areas and expansion at the urban fringe EEA, 1999, speaks of “increasing dispersal and sprawling of urban settlements with declining urban population densities and greater requirements for urban infrastructure” oMixing urban functions locates land uses with complementary functions close together

Technological scenarios Four issues oPassenger car occupancy rate oModal share: public and private transport oInformation Technology in traffic control & management oPenetration rates of new technologies

Technologies: towards a more efficient use of cleaner technologies? Traffic control Alternative fuels: Electric Vehicles, Hybrid Electric Vehicles, Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

Technologies: towards a more efficient use of cleaner technologies? Average urban occupancy rate in 10 European cities from 1990 to 2000 Source: Auto Oil II

Average modal shares in 10 European cities from 1990 to 2000 Source: Auto Oil II Technologies: towards a more efficient use of cleaner technologies?

Summary of scenarios ISSUES ADDRESSEDBaselineUpper endLower end Demographic changesThe city is growing and getting younger The city is shrinking and getting older Economic structural changes The city is changing fast towards a high-tech service- based economy The city is changing slowly towards a high-tech service- based economy Technological changesThe city is moving fast towards improving transport efficiency The city is moving slowly towards improving transport efficiency Land-use changes Current situation The city is densifying and mixing land uses The city is sprawling and separating land uses

Summary of scenarios SCENARIOS BASELINE CURRENT STATE LOWER END UPPER END DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES population size Average EU cities growth % pa GROWTH - 1 % pa [74% pop2000] GROWTH % [156% pop2000] DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES population age Expected changes (UNPD) YH – 2pp, WA –5pp, OAP +8pp YOUTH –5pp WA – 10pp OAP +15pp YOUTH 0pp WA – 3pp OAP +3pp ECONOMIC CHANGES Average EU cities changes SERVICES+ 11pp Teleworkers MIN 2.8% (Spain) MAX 16.8% (Finland) SERVICES + 5pp TELEW = 15% SERVICES + 20pp TELEW = 70% LAND USE CHANGES EU cities Increasing dispersal and sprawling of urban settlements City areas increases Three circles of urban functions City areas decreases Proportional distribution of urban function

Summary of scenarios -

Selection of common scenarios Dynamic, rich and virtuous city oa young and growing city moving fast to high-tech services jobs, which cares about the environment and adopts clean technologies and careful planning Dynamic, rich and vicious city oa young and growing city moving fast to high-tech services jobs, which, however, saves on clean technologies and grow chaotically into the countryside around Virtuous pensioners city oa city becoming a city of pensioners, it does not grow, does not change its economic structures, yet, it cares about the environment and adopts clean technologies and careful planning Vicious pensioner city oa city becoming a city of pensioners, it does not grow, does not change its economic structures. It does not adopt clean technologies or careful planning

Markal Visum Ofis ESS Vadis Public Health Concentrations (O 3 ) Economic Assess. Morbidity, mortality (pollution and direct and indirect costs of transportation Emissions Consumption of fossil fuelsExposition to noise Stress indicators time loss for congestion Demography Land-use Economy Technology Demand Emissions (OD matrix) Concentrations (CO et al) TREM IN  DRIVING FORCES  RESPONSES OUT  PRESSURES  STATE  IMPACTS

Economic assessment Source: Quinet (1997) Climate change Human health Landscape Buildings Noise Environment Congestion Accidents External costs Use of space Infrastructure costs Fuel Maintenance Repairs Insurance tax Cost of vehicle Full cost Direct costs Private costs Time Crops

Direct and external costs (per capita) Direct costs (Baseline=1) Genova 1 Genova 2 Genova 3 Genova 4

Direct and external costs Genova Thessaloniki Lisboa Tel Aviv Gdansk Genève Young virtuous Young vicious Old virtuous Old vicious

Direct and external costs (per pkm) 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 0,000,501,001,502,002,50 Direct costs (Baseline=1) External costs (Baseline=1) Young virtuous city Young vicious city Old virtuous Old vicious Genova 1 Genova 2 Genova 3 Genova 4