Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 1/NNN Operational Center Presentations National Centers for Environmental Prediction Environmental.

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Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 1/NNN Operational Center Presentations National Centers for Environmental Prediction Environmental Modeling Center NCEP Central Operations Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Hendrik L. Tolman Chief, Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch NOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC

Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 2/NNN NCEP  National Centers for Environmental Prediction  of the National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)  Development and monitoring of operational model suites (weather, hydrology, ocean, cryosphere, ….)  In-house expertise on modeling systems.  Interface with NCO for externally developed modeling systems. Other NWS, OAR, NOS, Tsunami, …. NCEP Central Operations (NCO)  Running of operational model suite including data ingest and data dissemination.  Mostly with EMC.  Also directly or indirectly with above partners. Models provide GUIDANCE, never FORECASTS.

Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 3/NNN NCEP Seven service centers  Ocean Prediction Center (OPC)  Offshore Marine Forecasting (Weather, Ice, Waves, Ocean).  Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)  As OPC + hurricanes.  Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) …. Serving the public directly as well as the Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). Forecasters at Service Centers and WFOs produce FORECASTS, based on model GUIDANCE and observations.

Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 4/NNN NCEP and Oceans  Why does NWS do Oceans? 2004 SAB report and NOAA response: Three-level National Backbone Capability  Global and Basin scale modeling at NCEP on computer managed by NCO,  (National) coastal scale bay NOS, to be transitioned to NCO computing.  Regional focus on IOOS RAs, no clear path for operational computing paradigm. Integrated system design rather than stovepipes within NOAA. Part of larger National Backbone Capability with Navy and USACE (USGS, …..). Evolve into ecosystems capability in next 20 years.

Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 5/NNN NCEP / EMC models  Our resources force us to focus on a single model.  Several years ago HYCOM was chosen, not in the last place due to consortium approach. HYCOM is base of Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) of NCEP. Eddy resolving models for support of OPC, TPC, WFOs ….  RTOFS-Atlantic starting  RTOFS-Global starting (Directly adopted from Navy-NRL, co-dependent by 2014). Specialized eddy resolving for coupled weather forecast.  HWRF-HYCOM real time testing Non-eddy resolving ocean for coupling to global weather models. Testing to start  Wave modeling at all scales with in-house model.

Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 6/NNN Model deficiencies  General issues with RTOFS: Sufficient data to constrain model (altimetry, profiles). Suitable metrics to assess model quality and direct model development. Effective data dissemination in context of building backbone capability.  NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework.  NOMADS / THREADDS servers with three-tiered approach (NWS-NCDDC-NODC)  Technical issues Tides and internal tides for our users (OPC, TPC). Assimilation techniques  NOAA-Navy ODA plan under development. Mixed layer / coastal behavior in the context of coupling.

Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 7/NNN Bottlenecks for improvement  Resources: Human resources at NCEP.  Team still in building stage.  Funding catching up but still below full support of entire mission. Computer resources for operations:  We can do development on other than NCO computing.  RTOFS-Global was accelerated by accepting NRL live model initialization until sufficient resources are available at NCEP for in-house initialization.  Effective external collaboration. Effective transition to operations (T2O) goes hand-in-hand with using operations for research (O2R).  See next slide

Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 8/NNN Transition to operations (timeline)  New models: Key is not setting up model, but achieving maturity consistent with 99+% on-time product delivery rate. Effort ratio may be as bad as 25% for model development, 75% for bullet-proofing. Can take five or more years !!!  Existing models: 1-2 system upgrades per year. Implementation process can take up to six months, including retrospective testing and real-time testing,  Introduce a new model in an existing modeling framework: Closer to upgrading existing model than to introducing a new model. O2R speeds up T2O enormously

Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 9/NNN Working with academia  “NCEP only wants to work on their own models”  is a myth that needs to be debunked. The wave model is a NCEP model, but also the de-facto community research model.  At least 7 international teams work on this model.  It took 10 years to get this established. HYCOM is a community model that was accepted by NCEP as the next generation operational model, replacing POM/  We are minor contributor to code.  Adoption of 1/12° global model of NRL/NAVO that was developed by the consortium. NOS and IOOS will be our main interface with the coastal modeling community (COMF). We will rely on NOS and their interactions with the community for support of storm surge models (ADCIRC, FVCOM, ….)

Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 10/NNN Working with academia  There are many ways of collaborating. Modeling and assimilation (previous slide). Data dissemination  Three-tiered approach Model evaluation.  We benefit greatly from external assessment of our model results, as this can guide or focus fur model development. Defining and development of appropriate metrics.  GODAE Ocean View, focus on intercomparison of similar models.  Testbed, where I hope to see metrics that identify how successful our model are in forcing regional models, and can help us identify high-impact model improvements.

Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 11/NNN Training of staff  Still building HYCOM group. We started with a group experienced in ocean modeling using POM, and using a (now discontinued) attempt at developing an in-house model. We were involved with development of the model from an early stage. We hired several scientists from within the consortium (NRL, RSMAS). There is a close interaction between members of the consortium. Once the group is sufficiently staffed to cover the base requirements, we intend to use resources to establish visiting scientist positions to improve the T2O process.

Tolman, June 23, 2010IOOS Testbed Kickoff SURA, 12/NNN Impact of testbed on NCEP  Short term impact on NCEP/EMC: Better establish National Backbone Capability.  NOS COMF better established as framework to force IOOS RA models.  Moving toward unified data dissemination. More data available for constraining models (real-time availability). Metrics to more effectively guide model development.  Long term impact on NCEP/EMC: As above, plus … Possible co-development of modeling / assimilation approaches using O2R. Moving toward modeling framework that allows for easier adoption of next generations model engines. Ensembles …. ?