© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 A summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market Data to 12 th June 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 A summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market Data to 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 Grocery Performance Summary The 52 week market value sales have turned around and is showing growth of +1.1% year on year. The latest quarter shows market value growth at +0.9% year on year. Price inflation continues to bring value into the market but shoppers cut back on volume bought. Shoppers continue to battle price inflation by reducing spend by trading down to a cheaper product, shopping in cheaper stores, buying on promotion or buying own label products.

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? The grocery market has returned to 52 week growth, with short terms sales ahead of last year 52 we €000’s -6.1%+1.1% 12 we €000’s -5.2%+0.9%

© Kantar Worldpanel HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? 4 W/E The market shows 4 week value growth at +1% year on year 4 we €000’s -3.6% +1.0% KANTAR WORLDPANEL: 4 W/E 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE GROCERY MARKET IN 12 & 4 WEEK GROWTH The grocery market continues in growth over shorter periods % Value Growth in Total Grocery

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 % Markets in Inflation vs Deflation 6 12w/e 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 TOTAL GROCERY MARKET 12w VALUE GROWTH & INFLATION? ROI grocery market has seen price inflation ahead of value sales growth 12w/e 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 SHOPPERS ARE MAKING THE SAME NUMBER OF TRIPS THIS YEAR, BUT SPENDING 50c LESS ON EACH OCCASION WHEN COMPARED TO THIS PERIOD LAST YEAR What has been the Effect on Shopper Behaviour?

© Kantar Worldpanel How are consumers reducing their spend? 1.Reducing quantity purchased- Less per trip 2.Cheaper Brands/Formats 3.More Own label 4.Promotions 5.Cheaper stores

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 How are consumers reducing spend? Spend -2.41% Volume -1.54%Price paid -0.73% Trade down -4.75%Inflation +3.88% Store -0.54%Product /Promo -4.21% 12 w/e 12 Jun 2011 *Slight definitional difference in Price paid

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE Contributions of Change % 12w DRIVERS OF TOTAL MARKET PERFORMANCE Price inflation now at +4% with shoppers reacting by buying more on offer, or trading down to a cheaper option 12w/e 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 As shoppers buy less, basket missions gain from trolleys Trolley Basket Destination % of grocery spend % 36.8% 4.3% % 38.0% 4.5%

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE w/e 12 th June 2011 Shoppers are trading down in 69% of markets to a cheaper format

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 Private Label Value Share of Grocery 12w PRIVATE LABEL VALUE SHARE OF TOTAL GROCERY MARKET Private label value share is at 35% of market sales, and has not dropped back after the new year pickup 12w/e 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 Grocery Packs Growth by Private Label Tier Budget private label products see an increase in Pack sales Growth in Grocery sales (Packs) Change in sales Share of sales

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 TOTAL GROCERY – 52w % PERCEIVED PACKS SOLD ON DEAL Although promotional activity has slowed slightly, consumers still choose to buy 14% of their grocery volume on deal

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY IN THE TOTAL GROCERY SECTOR % Value sold on deal remaining steady this period 17 % Value € 12w/e 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITY IN THE TOTAL GROCERY SECTOR 18 % Packs Sold on Deal in Total Grocery, 12w/e 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 TOTAL GROCERY – 52w % PERVEIVED PACKS SOLD ON DEAL – PROMO TYPE Pickup in MultiBuy packs this year, but less Money off and Extra Free promotions

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 Grocery Sector Analysis - Summary

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 TOTAL FOOD YEARLY AND QUARTERLY SALES The food market comes back into positive growth vs the same time last year 52 we €000’s -5.3% 1.6% 12 we €000’s -5.1%1.8% 52w/e 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 HOW IS THE FOOD MARKET PERFORMING ON TRENDED BASIS? % VALUE GROWTH VS LAST YEAR, 12 WEEKLY TRENDED 12w/e 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 WHICH SECTOR IS DRIVING MARKET RETURN TO GROWTH? Ambient and Fresh foods are driving market performance this period Value share Value change 12w/e 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel KANTAR WORLDPANEL: data to 12 TH JUNE 2011 UK Overview & Consumer coping strategies.

© Kantar Worldpanel 25 GROWTH AND INFLATION Growth plateaus creating a divergence from inflation Grocery (RST) 12we 12 June 2011 (KWP P7) 12w/e 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel Trading-up and Trading-down Strategies Shoppers manage their spend mainly by promotions. Grocery (RST) 12we 12 June 2011 (KWP P7) 12w/e 12 th June 2011

© Kantar Worldpanel UK Grocery Packs Growth by Price Brand UK also continue to see rise in budget pack sales as they trade down from standard and Good options Growth in Grocery sales (Packs) Change in salesShare of sales 12 W/e 12 Jun 11

MARKET VIEW - UK KANTAR WORLDPANEL –MARKET TRENDS –Market growth levels now at 4.4%, just behind inflation at 4.6% –Inflation rate at 4.6% for this period, is due to an increase in the number of markets displaying inflation within 5-10% range (rather than a few markets in the double digit range). In particular, alcohol and cereal dependent markets have seen significant rises. These latest rises mean we now anticipate inflation rising towards 5%. –The growth in budget sales indicate shoppers choosing to buy cheaper products. The inexorable growth in promotions is showing signs of slowing, though it is still the most significant factor driving change in shoppers’ choice.