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1 A SUMMARY UPDATE OF THE IRISH GROCERY MARKET TO 21 ST MARCH 2010 A Presentation to the National Consumer Agency May 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel 2 Headlines The market declined by 5% in value, losing over €460 million over 52 weeks Household grocery spend shrunk by 7.5% in the same period Move away from premium to budget products Huge shift to products priced under €3 Cross Border share falling back 1 2 3 4 5
© Kantar Worldpanel 3 The grocery market has shrunk by 5% year-on-year, falling below 2008 value 52 we €000’s +3.2%- 5% 12 we €000’s -1.1%-7.5%
© Kantar Worldpanel 4 HOW IS THE MARKET PERFORMING ON TRENDED BASIS? % VALUE CHANGE VS. LAST YEAR, 12 WEEKLY AND 4 WEEKLY TRENDED
© Kantar Worldpanel 5 Annual Grocery SpendQuarterly Grocery SpendMonthly Grocery Spend -7.5% -7% Each household spent €456 less on groceries in the year to 21 ST March 2010 versus same period last year
© Kantar Worldpanel 66 Why are households spending less? Contribution to % Change -7.5% -6.3% +4% -5.1% Deflation Volume per Household Store Choice Promotion or Product Choice Spend per Household
© Kantar Worldpanel 7 58.1% of basket spend now on items priced under €3 – an increase of 5 points on last year 5 point shift to items under €3 Average grocery basket price bands
© Kantar Worldpanel 88 Budget products are the only ones showing sales growth within total grocery % Change in sales Share of sales Median -75%Median -25%Median PriceMedian +25%Median +75%
© Kantar Worldpanel 9 Trading down retailer is becoming less important in driving down household spend Contribution to % Change How are shopper coping strategies changing over time?
© Kantar Worldpanel 10 So the gap between deflation and household spend is reducing 10 6 point gap 1 point gap
© Kantar Worldpanel 11 Why are shoppers staying down South? They stocked up over the Christmas period 1 Spend per Trip in December €60 Spend per Trip in March €53
© Kantar Worldpanel 12 Why are shoppers staying down South? Exchange rate advantage continued to erode 2 Source: www.x-rates.com
© Kantar Worldpanel 13 Why are shoppers staying down South? Shopping in the Republic is becoming cheaper still 3 Cost of basket of 85 commonly purchased branded goods and fresh produce fell by 7% last year
© Kantar Worldpanel 14 Why are shoppers staying down South? The Big Freeze 4
© Kantar Worldpanel 15 Brief Overview of UK Market
© Kantar Worldpanel 16 Inflation And Household Spend Growth Trading up not as high as in previous months Grocery (RST) 12we 21 Mar 2010 (KWP P04)
© Kantar Worldpanel 17 While in the UK Standard and Super-Premium offerings are showing strongest growth as shoppers are beginning to trade back up into brands % Change in salesShare of sales Median -75%Median -25%Median PriceMedian +25%Median +75%
© Kantar Worldpanel 18 Grocery Coping Strategies Consumers using promotions to trade up in volume and quality - Grocery (RST) 12we 21 Mar 2010 (KWP P04)
© Kantar Worldpanel 19 Grocery Coping Strategies Trading up increasingly driven by volume and less about quality Grocery (RST) 12we 21 Mar 2010 (KWP P04)
© Kantar Worldpanel 20 Promotional Mechanics Contribution To Growth % extra free and price cuts drive growth, as full price sales continue to fall Grocery (RST) 12we 21 Mar 2010 (KWP P04)
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