WECC PCC Meeting Salt Lake City, UT July 16, 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

WECC PCC Meeting Salt Lake City, UT July 16, 2014

Q January 2 Regional Transmission Plan (RTP) Data Gathering and Economic Study Request (ESR) Window Opens January 31 1 st Data Submission Deadline (NTTG Footprint requirements) June 11 (Boise, ID) Q2 public meeting to present Draft Biennial Study Plan to stakeholders and discuss updates on FERC Orders January 22 (Portland, OR) Q1 public meeting to discuss NTTG Regional Order 1000 RTP and ESR Process April 15 Deadline to cure Q1 data submission deficiencies June 24 ( SLC, UT) Steering Committee meeting approved Draft Biennial Study Plan June 1 Regional Economic Study Plan developed Q Regional Transmission Plan Timeline May 15 Draft Study Plan, including cost allocation scenarios, February 28 (Folsom, CA) Interregional information exchange Draft Schedule - subject to change March 30 and 31 2 nd Data Submission Deadline (ESR’s and project and cost allocation data) 2

12 September 16 (Location: TBD) Q3 public meeting to discuss development of the RTP, updates on FERC Orders, and Economic Study Results December 2 (SLC, UT ) Q4 public meeting to present status report on development of RTP and receive comments Q5 Planning Committee facilitates stakeholder review and comment on the Draft RTP Plus Q5 ESR deliverables Q7 Draft Final Regional Transmission Plan Review Plus Q6 ESR deliverables September 30 Regional Economic Study Complete; or Sponsor notified with explanation and estimated completion date Q6 Cost Allocation Committee allocates costs of projects selected into the draft RTP. Draft Final Regional Transmission Plan Produced, Plus Q7 ESR Deliverables Q8 Regional Transmission Plan Approval Plus Q8 ESR Deliverables Q3-Q4: 2014 Q5-Q8: Regional Transmission Plan Timeline December 31 Planning Committee produces a Draft Regional Transmission Plan, including Economic Study Results Draft Schedule - subject to change 3

●Loads forecasted for Balancing Areas internal to the NTTG footprint ●Resources projected for Balancing Areas within NTTG footprint ●Transmission Projects ●Full Funder Local Transmission Plan, Sponsored Project, Unsponsored Project, or Merchant Transmission Developer ●A listing of applicable Public Policy Requirements for the NTTG footprint is included in Study Plan - Attachment 1 Study Assumptions 4

Balancing Area Loads 5 Balancing Area 2013 Actual Peak Demand (MW) 2021 Summer Load Data Submitted in Q (MW) 2024 Summer Load Data Submitted in Q (MW) Difference (MW) Basin Electric No Data Submitted 476No Data Submitted Black Hills No Data Submitted 465No Data Submitted Idaho Power3,4074,3834, NorthWestern1,7071,6801,77494 PacifiCorp East No Data Submitted 9,84210, PacifiCorp West No Data Submitted 3,7953, Portland General3,9004,1193, TOTAL*23,81923,89273

Resource Changes 6

Resource Additions 7 State Resource Additions (MW) California-81 Idaho81 Montana584 Oregon68 Utah1,467 Washington278 Wyoming*708

Transmission Additions 8 SponsorTypeProjectsVoltageCircuits Idaho Power LTPGateway West Project500 kV2 LTPB2H Project500 kV – 230 kV2 Great Basin TransmissionSponsored Southwest Intertie Project North 500 kV1 NorthWestern Energy LTPBroadview – Garrison Upgrade500 kV1 LTPMillcreek – Amps Upgrade230 kV1 PacifiCorp East LTPGateway South Project500 kV1 LTPGateway West Project500 kV – 230 kV5 Portland GeneralLTPBlue Lake - Gresham230 kV1 TransWest Express Merchant Transmission Developer TransWest Express600 kV DC1

●Base cases will be developed using a production cost model to determine the hours when load and resource conditions are likely to stress the NTTG transmission system ●Power flow analysis of the Initial Regional Plan for the chosen hours will check compliance with the system performance requirements and transmission needs associated with Public Policy Requirements 9 Analysis Method

●Change Cases will be developed by replacing one or more uncommitted projects in the Initial Regional Plan with an Alternative Project that may meet the transmission need ●Power flow analysis of the Change Case for the chosen hours will check compliance with the system performance requirements and transmission needs associated with Public Policy Requirements 10 Alternative Analysis

●Projects that are more efficient or cost effective will be selected into the Regional Transmission Plan use the following metrices: ●Capital cost ●Energy Losses ●Reserves 11 Selection of Projects into the Plan

Capital Cost Validation The TEPPC Transmission Capital Cost Calculator (MS Excel spreadsheet) will be used to validate submitted project costs –If the submitted costs vary from the Calculator output by 20%, the Project Sponsor will be contacted to resolved differences –If the difference cannot be resolved, the TWG will determine the appropriate cost to apply 12

Energy Losses Analysis Power flow software will be used to compare losses before and after a project is added to the system. A reduction in losses after a project is added represents the benefit. The energy loss valuation will be based on average energy price for the study year 13

Reserves Analysis Evaluate a number of capacity sharing opportunities among the various combinations of Balancing Areas The reserve metric will be accessed on a Balancing Area basis and is based on the incremental load and generation submitted by Transmission Providers The calculation will be performed using a spreadsheet which will consider the savings between each Balancing Area providing its own incremental reserve requirement and a combination of balancing areas sharing a reserve resource facilitated by uncommitted transmission capacity 14

Using the TEPPC 2024 common case production cost model with the GridView production cost software, the TWG will identify the hourly data for several system conditions, such as: a.peak coincident NTTG summer load condition; b.peak coincident NTTG winter load condition; c.conditions with maximum coincident NTTG net export; d.conditions with minimum coincident NTTG export; and e.additional system conditions as needed to meet the needs of specific areas of the NTTG footprint 15 System Conditions to Study

16 Common Case Transmission Assumptions

Will monitor the BES voltage and thermal loading in ColumbiaGrid, WestConnect and CAISO to identify potential violations of NERC, WECC or neighboring planning regions system performance criteria Will coordinate with the affected planning region to verify results and, if necessary, identify potential mitigation of violations within NTTG or the impacted region 17 Impacts on Neighboring Regions

The Cost Allocation Committee, with stakeholder inputs, will evaluate allocation scenarios for those parameters that will likely affect the amount of total benefits and their distribution among Beneficiaries To the extent feasible, the Cost Allocation Committee will look to the data underlying local transmission plans, integrated resource planning studies of LSEs within the NTTG footprint, the assumptions and the forecasts used to develop the alternative scenarios for each allocation metric 18 Cost Allocation Scenarios

The robustness analysis will use power flow analysis and input from production cost analysis as needed to test whether or not the 2024 Draft Regional Transmission Plan transmission system performance will remain acceptable assuming deviations from the base case assumption The TWG will use its discretion to define the deviations from base case assumptions to test and may draw on assumptions used in change cases or allocation scenarios and will seek input from stakeholders through the Planning Committee 19 Robustness of Initial Regional Plan

The Planning Committee should proceed only with the proposal from RNP to retire Colstrip units 1 and 2 and replace with Montana wind resources in The RNP proposal to study the effects of retiring Colstrip Units 1, 2, 3 and 4 in 2027 are beyond the NTTG 10 year planning horizon and outside the scope of the Regional Planning Cycle 2.The Northwest Energy Coalition request has already been studied by the WECC Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC) ●Since NTTG would use the same base case (as proposed by the submitter) and the same modeling techniques, different results would not be expected 20 Public Policy Considerations Scenario

Questions?