Erik F. Øverland Trondheim, 11th of September 2003 Foresight as a tool for development within the Ministry for Labour and Government Administration - experiences from Norway2030 Norway EVA-Forum Sept. 2003

From Forecasts to Scenarios What was Norway2030? Objectives, process and organization Outcomes and learnings products methodology and tools Key Lessons process and organisation some thematic issues

What is Foresight? Foresight is the overall concept for most of the tools, practices and thinking oriented towards the future. Foresight represents a different approach than forecasts and prognoses Forecast = simple mechanical “predictions” Prognoses = weight upon probability Moving beyond Forecasts

Definition (a try): Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium-to-long term vision building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions (FOREN 2003) Moving beyond Forecasts

What kind of foresight tools do we got? Delphi and survey-methods Scenario methodology (expert, dialogue, learning, participative) Backcasting Panels Wild Cards Technology foresight/assessment Vision building Games and other methods Scenarios are aimed at demonstrating a multitude of possible futures Moving beyond Forecasts

TIME PERSPECTIVISM - a precondition for Ex ante Evaluation Futures Pasts Presents Figur 4. Time perspectivism in perspectivist scenariobuilding (Backcasting as a tool for ex-ante evaluation) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Moving beyond Forecasts

If it is important to be conscious about which decisions the evaluations are made for, and what kind of consequences the evaluations may have, foresight methodology might be a helpful tool. To develop a proper tools for making innovation policy real you need to go beyond Forecasts and Prognoses Orientation towards several possible Futures through foresight ie. scenario methodology is to recommend Experiences from Norway2030 may contribute to a such agenda Moving beyond Forecasts

A scenario project initiated by the Royal Ministry of Government Administration in 1998 Finished 31th of December of 16 Ministries participated More than 60 civil servants participated in addition to external participants from research institutes, media and work life Comprehensive experimentation with scenario tools and -methodologies Orientation towards public sector Gained an excellence status in an internat. benchmark by the Cabinet Office in UK 2001 What was Norway2030?

Primary objective: The process intend to strengthen the public administration’s preparedness for readjust- ment and development in relation to long- term challenges, and to improve the basis for the strategic planning of the Ministries What was Norway2030?

Secondary objectives: to provide five future views of public sector to develop a larger common understanding of future challenges within the ministries through active involvement being a major instrument for public management reform the scenarios being reference for work in other parts of the public administration What was Norway2030?

Organization: Steering group Reference group Working groups Project group Two phases1) scenariolearning with broad participation 2) scenariostudy in a smaller group What was Norway2030? Phase 1 Nov.98 Phase 2 Jan.00 Dec.00 Dec.99

Phase 1: scenariolearning through scenariobuilding with 4 working groups through 10 seminars - discussion of concepts - discussion of thematic issues - thematic ’situational diagnosis’ - open process for identifying actors&factors - assessment and ranking of A&Fs - development of mini-scenarios - construction of partial scenarios through making creative combinations of miniscenarios Result: first partial report with 4x5=20 partial scenarios What was Norway2030? Phase 1 Nov.98 Dec.99

Phase 2: scenariostudy through a minor group - writing the book - discussion of perspectives and main content - structuring the scenarios - how to be surprising? - reflecting on method&tools - writing the chapters of the book - open review process with more than 40 external ”experts” - making presentations and doing information work Result: a monography What was Norway2030? Phase 2 Jan.00 Dec.00

Phase 2: scenariostudy through a minor group - writing the book - discussion of perspectives and main content - structuring the scenarios - how to be surprising? - reflecting on method&tools - writing the chapters of the book - open review process with more than 40 external ”experts” - making presentations and doing information work Result: a monography What was Norway2030? Phase 2 Jan.00 Dec.00

The structure of the publication PASTS Process and methodology chapter PRESENTS Perspectives on the contemporary society What is public sector today? In what kind of landscape do we exist? FUTURES The five main scenarios The wild Card PRACTICES From scenarios to politics What is the possible use of the scenarios? Perspectivist scenariobuilding in practice How did we do it?

The structure of the scenarios: Situational scenario. The society in Norway 2030 Here is the surprise element supposed to come The story. Daily life in 2030 (meaning) How and why did things happen? (plausibility) economy welfare environment/culture security how do people live here? Public sector (dependent variable - relevance) democracy, politics and governance new structures between the national levels and the surroundings The social historian 2030 (backcasting) What was Norway2030?

what is foresight&scenario-building? what is policy development/ strategic planning? how to organise the relationship between them? Experiences from Norway2030 may be presented through three basic questions: What was Norway2030?

How to construct scenarios to make them effective means in strategic discourses and policy development? Outcomes and learnings - Methods

HOW TO ORGANIZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SCENARIOBUILDING AND STRATEGIC PLANNING? V. Scenarios and strategic focus (I. - V. = scenario-perspectives) I. II. III. IV. Strategic focus Outcomes and learnings - Methods

- important stakeholders should be involved (’broad participation’) - a clear distinction between ’actors’ and ’factors’ - a clear distinction between situational scenarios and development scenarios - show clearly who who have decide what in the scenarios, and then concretise consequences of such choices - Actors/change agents or decision makers should be appropriate for contemporary or future decision units (relevance for own enterprise/nation) Outcomes and learnings - Methods

-The scenarios should demonstrate real alternatives - the scenarios should demonstrate clearly what perspective the scenario is founded on -scenarios, then, are not universal scenarios, but always situational and special, or contextual -the demonstration of counter forces are important Outcomes and learnings - Methods

Good scenarios must represent: surprise meaning plausibility relevance Back-casting Outcomes and learnings - Methods

anchoring a project in a ministry have both positive and negative aspects –pos: close to politicians, acknowledged institution, contributed to real change across and within ministries –neg: it was necessary to fight against the stereotype of ”the boring bureaucrat” in the public, difficult to define a liberal arena, some kind of isolation from other societal arenas scenarios must be constructed according to defined quality criteria to be useful in strategy discourses Key Lessons

scenario- and foresight activities should be more integrated in in the national innovation system (which in Norway is very fragmented) much to much dependence on personal interest and idealism by single individuals difficult to achieve institutional results –may be changed when foresight/scenariobuild. are integrated in a national innovation policy scenarios must be constructed according to defined quality criteria to be useful in strategy discourses Key Lessons

Early stage analyses of the contemporary situation Actor orientation. Focus at current and potential future actors/decision makers Develop a central database with grand perspectives on future development at national, regional and global level A national Programme structure with several Sub-projects Key Lessons

Political institutionalisation ( eg. Committee for the Future in the finish Parliament) Involve Politicians, Academics and Representatives from the Media Differentiate clearly between the scenario activities and a following Vision building process/policy development Differentiate between situational scenarios (the situation in 2023) and development scenarios (the road from now to 2023) Key Lessons

International Profile. Aim at building international network as a part of the Programme Develop a pool of different foresight methodologies as a part of a national competence network for Foresight methodological development Key Lessons

Establish a Governance Project on innovation with extensive use of foresight! Don’t trust the past! Combine Innovation Policy and Scenario-tools Initialise a White Book on Innovation Explore the Potential of new generic Technologies! (Nano- Bio- & Gentechnologies) Key Lessons

End of Presentation The End