Biobased Products Value Chain - Feedstocks, Products & Markets - RRM-Meeting Brussels, 2 nd April 2014 Rainer Busch, T+I Consulting Dietrich Wittmeyer, ERRMA 1

2 Bio-based products‘ value chains

3 Value Chain 1: From lignocellulosic feedstock to advanced biofuels, bio-based chemicals and biomaterials: realising the feedstock and technology base for the next generation of fuels, chemicals and materials Value Chain 2: The next generation forest-based value chains: utilisation of the full potential of forestry biomass by improved mobilisation and realisation of new added value products and markets Value Chain 3: The next generation agro-based value chains: realising the highest sustainability and added value by improved agricultural production, and new added value products and markets Value Chain 4: Emergence of new value chains from (organic) waste: from waste problems to economic opportunities by realising sustainable technologies to convert waste into valuable products Value Chain 5: The integrated energy, pulp and chemicals biorefineries: realising sustainable bio-energy production, by backwards integration with biorefinery operations isolating higher added value components Biobased Industries Consortium: Five Value Chains

4 Biobased Solvents - Update 2013 bio-based solvents market Total European solvents market is estimated with 5 million tonnes yearly. Different sources (Dechema, Fraunhofer Institute, ESIG) estimate today’s bio-based solvents volume with 50 to 100 KT (1 to 2%) JRC Report 2013 (EUR EN) gives a market of 630 KT bio- based solvents. Difference is identified to be related to the ethanol supply chain. An European market of 630 KT bio-based solvents can be confirmed considering bio-ethanol used directly as a solvent or as a feedstock for other solvents.

5 Biobased Solvents - Update Solvents and the Ethanol case (source NNFCC and industry): Ethanol global production 2008: 61 million tonnes (> 90% bio-based) Most applications in fuels and food & beverages Ca. 6 million tonnes for the industry Part of ethanol is used directly as a solvent, part blended with other solvents (e.g. ETOH/ETAC blend for inks), part used for downstream products (solvents like ETAC or non-solvents like ethylene, acetic acid…) Applications may switch back and forward considering market conditions The solvents application of ETOH, being bio-based or not, is very low compared with biofuel but as well industrial applications considering for example the chain ethanol  ethylene  polyethylene Bio-ethanol from biomass is a mature market being highly impacted by policies and incentives.

6 Biobased Solvents - Update Prediction (what can we reasonably say today) Main solvents application are ethanol and downstream products or blends Development of ethanol will remain highly affected by regional and local policies Other bio-based solvents (alcohols, acetates) are mainly oxygenated solvents and have very low volumes representing no more than 1% of the market Their development will depend on competitive production conditions Today, it is not possible for the solvents industry to give serious fact based prediction of bio-based solvents market.

7 Biobased Solvents - Update Some additional considerations in the bio-based solvents context Feedstock availability at competitive conditions Competitive production process Pull from downstream users Long term predictability of legal and incentives conditions Standardization will give the frame for companies and downstream users to develop their own bio-based strategies

8 Surfactants - Update

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10 Source: Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU , European Commission Agricultural Products & Markets - Update

11 Table 6.10 EU rice market balance, (million tonnes milled equivalent) Table 6.11 EU oilseed* (grains and beans) market balance, (million tonnes) Table 6.13 EU oilseed oil* market balance, (million tonnes) Table 6.14 EU vegetable oil* market balance, (million tonnes Table 6.15 EU sugar market balance, (million tonnes white sugar equivalent) Table 6.17 EU biofuels market balance, (million tonnes oil equivalent) Agricultural Products & Markets - Update

12 Source: nova-institute Starch: European Starch Production & Trade EU-27

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19 Table 1Sugar Table 2Starch Table 3Cellulosic Materials Table 4, 5, 6 Plant Oils Table 7 Animal Fats Table 8Biobased Platform Chemicals and selected biobased products

OIL SEEDS & VEGETABLE OILS 20

Feedstock Inter- mediates Raw Materials (Platform) Chemicals Materials, Products Oil seeds Animals Oils Fats SurfactantsFatty acids Fatty alcohols Glycerine Markets Paints & Inks Lubricants Detergents

22 Oilseeds: European Production & Trade EU-27 Source: Fediol

23 Plant Oils: European Production & Trade EU-27 Source: Fediol

24 Plant Oils: European Consumption per Sector EU-27 Source: Fediol

25 Plant Oils: Consumption in other industrial application EU-27

26 Also available: Global production of Palm & Palm Kernel oil Global production of Soybean oil Global production of Rapeseed oil Global production of sunflower oil Source: FAO

27 Plant Oil Derivatives: European Production EU-27 Source: EUROSTAT

28 Plant Oil Derivatives: European Trade EU-27 Source: EUROSTAT

29 Plant Oil Derivatives: European Consumption EU-27

30 Plant Oil Derivatives: Consumption per Sector EU-27

SUGAR 31

32 Sugar: European Sugar Crops Production EU-27 Source: FAOSTAT

33 Sugar: European Sugar Crops Trade EU-27

34 Sugar: European Sugar Production EU-27 Source: CEFS, FAOSTAT, EU Commssion (DG Agri)

35 Sugar: European Sugar Trade EU-27

36 Sugar: European Sugar Consumption per Sector EU-27

STARCH 37

38 Starch: European Starch Plants Production & Trade EU-27 Source: AAF Source: EUROSTAT

39 Source: nova-institute Starch: European Starch Production & Trade EU-27

40 Starch: European Starch Consumption per Sector EU-27

CELLULOSE 41

42 Starch: European Lignocellulose Feedstock Consumption EU-27 Source: CEPI

43 Starch: European Starch Plants Production & Trade EU-27 Source: CEPI

44 Starch: European Starch Plants Production & Trade EU-27 Source: CEPI

PRODUCTS & MARKETS 45

46 Source: FUCHS AG Lubricants

47 Data provided by BASF SA Platform Chemicals

48 Composites

49 Plastics

50 Solvents Consolidated data from ESIG and IAR will be provided by ESIG in December 2013