Outline 1.Background on risk and decision research 2.Research methods, findings, and issues 3.Example questions

1.How do people make decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty? What is important information to attend to? What’s a worthwhile risk to take? How do we trade off risks and benefits? 2.Do people in different settings vary in their risk perceptions and decision processes? 3.What is the role of psychological and socio-cultural factors in risk perceptions and decision processes? Research Motivations

Decision Making under Uncertainty: Tricky Questions Are communities’ reactions to risk legitimate? Why do people’s perceptions differ? Why do differences persist, despite education? Fatality Risk 5 x 10 -6

Importance  Practical Importance  Articulate gaps between different stakeholder values  Facilitate risk debates and communications  Improve decision processes and outcomes  Theoretical Importance  Accurately describe underlying processes  Explain individual and group differences  Generalize across risk domains, contexts  Predict how DM, task, and context characteristics influence risk perceptions and behavioral responses

Lay people overestimate rare events & underestimate frequent events Relationship between judged frequency & actual number of deaths/year (Lichtenstein et al., 1978) 5

Dimensions of Risk UNKNOWN DREADED KNOWN NOT DREADED Source: Slovic 1987

Attitudes Toward Regulation of Hazards The larger the point the greater the desire for strict regulation to reduce risk

Cultural Differences in Risk Preferences  Chinese less risk averse than Americans (Hsee & Weber, 1999; Weber & Hsee, 1998)  Cushion hypothesis  More help available in a socially collectivist society so more risky gambles OK  Less risk aversion among Chinese only for investment decisions  Risk preferences related to size and quality of social networks

Risk Perceptions Reflect Deep-Seated Values  People with low risk perceptions are more likely:  to agree with statements reflecting hierarchical views “When a risk is very small, it is OK for society to impose that risk on individuals without their consent”  to disagree with egalitarian statements “The world needs more equal distribution of wealth”  to disagree with community-based decision making “People living near a nuclear power plant should be able to vote and to close the plant if they think it is not being run safely”

Policy Implications  Different worldviews matter because they determine which approach to safety will be supported  Sheehy et al (1996):  Hierarchists prefer expert groups  Egalitarians prefer personal choice and endorse labeling  All want to be involved in DM, but some more willing to trust the judgment of others  Focusing only on socio-ecological variables will not reveal socio-psychological differentiation of those more or less successful in responding to AI

Empirical Research on the Perceived Risk of HPAI  Most research done in Western countries  Focus on AI in humans (rather than poultry)  Studies in Asia show perceived risk correlated with:  Gender (women perceive more risk)  Age (older people perceive more risk)  Efficacy (greater ability to protect related to lower perceived risk)  Control (higher perceived personal control related to lower PR)  Trust in public authorities  Protective behavior more likely with:  Higher education  Urban living  Knowledge of HPAI  Owning poultry

Perceptions of HPAI Risk in Poultry  Takeuchi (2006), Thailand (urban, suburban, rural)  6% of rural ppts with backyard chickens aware of symptoms in poultry  No testing for AI  Reporting system not easily accessible  Optimistic bias (aware of AI reports, but thought unlikely in their flocks)  Barennes et al. (2007), Laos (urban, semi-urban, rural)  <50% had knowledge of symptoms in poultry  50% believed their poultry not at risk for AI  No-one notified authorities of poultry deaths  Ly et al. (2007), Cambodia (rural)  62% experienced poultry deaths, 7% reported deaths to authorities  Important to report deaths because due to AI (61%), get advice (39%)  Non-reporting due to lack of knowledge of reporting procedure, not being in habit, fears of problem selling, fears of culling  Dead poultry buried (62%), prepared for food (53%), thrown away (22%), used as feed (3%), sold/given away (2%)

Risk Perception Hypotheses  H0: Perceived risk not related to setting.  H1a: Perceived risk correlated with setting (à la Kuznets: highest in transitional setting).  H1b: Perceived risk correlated with setting (à la risk society: highest in most modern setting) because feelings of trust and control are eroded.  H2: A significant amount of setting-related RP variance can be accounted for by socio- ecological and socio-psychological (efficacy, affect, worldviews, etc) factors

Free Association What thoughts or images come to mind when you hear the phrase “avian influenza in poultry?” Very Negative NegativeNeutralPositive Very Positive Very Negative NegativeNeutralPositive Very Positive Please rate the valence of each thought/image on the scale below.

Direct Report on Affective Responses to Risk  How worried/fearful are you about avian influenza infecting birds in your commune? Not at all worried A little worried Moderately worried Very worried Extremely worried  How worried are you about you or your family getting sick with avian influenza?  How worried are you about you or your family being stigmatized by an outbreak of avian influenza in your birds?  How worried are you about being unable to sell your birds because of avian influenza?  How worried are you about income loss from culling your flock due to an outbreak of avian influenza? Need the right word here to capture feelings about risk Avoid optimistic bias?

Direct Report on AI Risk  How serious are the impacts of avian influenza in your commune?  How vulnerable are birds in your commune to avian influenza?

Direct Report on Relative Risk  Please rank these risks to Vietnamese society from most to least risky. _ Lacking enough food _ Natural hazards (such as earthquakes, floods, drought) _ Avian influenza in poultry _ Urbanization of the landscape _ Financial security

Qualitative Characteristics  Please tell us how familiar you are with avian influenza in birds in the sense that you feel you know something about it or know someone who has experienced it.  How dreaded is avian influenza in birds?  How much control do you think you have over avian influenza in birds?  How much of a burden on a family is avian influenza in birds?  How fatal is avian influenza for birds? Not at all familiar A little familiar Moderately familiar Very familiar 1234

Direct report of relative importance of system elements  According to your knowledge, give a rank to the following items in terms of their importance in contributing to an outbreak of avian influenza in poultry. Rank: Quality of feed Size of flock Farmer poultry management practices Waste management practices Government policies

Direct report of disease causation mental models  How important are each of the following as a cause of AI in birds? Not at all important A little important Moderately important Very important Don’t know Chance Contact with germs Contact with blood Genetic inheritance Poor diet and/or too little physical activity Stress Retribution Government policies Cultural practices (e.g., Tet Lunar New Year celebrations) 12349

Efficacy  How available is a vaccine for avian influenza in poultry? Not at all available A little available Moderately available Very available 1234  If a vaccine were available, how confident are you that it is effective? Not at all confident A little confident Moderately confident Very confident 1234  If a vaccine were available, how confident are you that you can secure and administer the vaccine? Not at all confident A little confident Moderately confident Very confident 1234

Protective behaviors (Y/N)  Participated in vaccination program?  Reported sick birds?  Culled sick birds?  Restricting the use of poultry manure?  Other…

Worldviews and Values Strongly disagree DisagreeAgreeStrongly agree Don’t know 1. In a good system, people who try harder should be rewarded financially The government should strictly limit people’s personal risk- taking activities When a risk to an individual is small but the benefits to society are large, it is OK for authorities to impose that risk on individuals without their consent Life’s ups and downs are mostly a matter of fate or divine will, not personal control

Support for Policies To manage HPAI risk, a poultry certification program has been proposed. This program would aim to improve food safety and animal health. It would include sampling, testing, labeling, veterinary inspections, fines, and ads. What would you be willing to pay for this program?

Paired Comparisons: Indirect assessment of the relative importance of information

Importance of Information  How important is each of the following as a source of information when judging the risk of avian influenza to poultry? _ Media reports _ Local health officials _ Friends and family _ Natural environment _ Built environment

Knowledge Avian influenza is transmitted from bird to bird by saliva. True/ False Avian influenza in poultry can be prevented by a vaccine. True/ False Other…

Background Demographics  Age  Gender  Education  Marital Status  Employment  Place you call home: rural or urban  How many people live with you?  Feeling about current income?  General health status (poor, fair, good, excellent)