International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Planned Forestry For the Desired Future of our Forests Issues facing forest planning in the southern United States Pete Bettinger Professor School of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Georgia Athens, GA USA

For pulp and paper purposes, the southern region provides most (75%) of the domestic commercial roundwood used in the USA. The forests of the South have a long history of development, and have been closely tied to environmental and economic challenges facing the agricultural sector.  Continuously forested areas have been harvested 2–5 times.  Recent changes in forested area have been slightly positive. International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Southern USA Forest Planning

Nearly 88% of the forest land is privately owned, and each owner may have different objectives and constraints that influence planning. International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Southern USA Forest Planning

Ownership is diverse across the landscape. International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Southern USA Forest Planning

Management planning for forest lands in the United States is not necessarily mandatory, and is not coordinated at any level (County, State, Region). All industrial or corporate landowners have at least a short-term management plan. All public lands are guided by a long-term management plan. 97% of the private landowners have no formal management plan. Most advice received by private landowners comes through state forestry agents, private consultants, other landowners, and loggers. International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Southern USA Forest Planning

If performed, forest planning processes in the southern USA typically involve.....  Database development  Modeling  Synthesis and development of knowledge  Acknowledgement of risk and economics  Technology  People  Organizational issues Unfortunately, the perfect forest management model has not been developed, and thus each landowner may use a model or process that they have developed independently of others. International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Southern USA Forest Planning

Management policies are influenced by State and federal regulations Guidance from forest certification programs Organizational decisions These affect the ability of an organization to recognize and model complex functional relationships among forests, the environment, and various socio-economic institutions. International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Southern USA Forest Planning

In assessing the value of owning forests and practicing forestry, landowners must acknowledge the spread of human civilization... This is perhaps the most important issue facing forest management in the southern USA. Most southern states do not have comprehensive land use plans that limit the type of development that can occur along the urban / rural edges of cities. The addition of homes in rural areas can influence land prices and the fragmentation of forests. Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

.... the risks posed by weather.... Damage to forests and natural resources during a tropical cyclone will occur primarily as a result of winds and storm surges generated by the storm. Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

.... the risks posed by fire.... The main causes of wildfires in the southern United States are primarily human actions and lightning. The impact of wildfires on forests will vary depending on the intensity and extent of the fire, and whether the forested ecosystem is sensitive to fire, influenced by fire, or independent in any regard. Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

... and the risks posed by insects and diseases. Examples: Cogongrass - an aggressive plant species that out-competes native vegetation. Kudzu - another plant species that grows aggressively, covering plants and trees. Southern pine beetle - Outbreaks can last from two to three years. Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

In general, there are three levels of forest planning in the southern United States. Strategic  year time horizon.  Goal is to assess sustainability of the management approach. Tactical  1-20 year time horizon.  Goal is to assess when, where, and how to implement the management strategy, given economic, commodity production, and environmental constraints. Operational  Weekly, monthly, annual time horizon.  Goal is to manage people, equipment, and budgets so that the forest plan can be followed.  This plan is influenced most by weather and market conditions. Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

However, there are many types of "optimization" processes that occur. Optimal stand establishment processes  Specific site preparation methods and stand establishment treatments Optimal management intensity  Specific decisions herbicide treatments, pre-commercial, thinning, pruning, etc. Optimal nutrient regimes  Specific fertilizer treatments to combat nutrient deficiencies Optimal stand-level management regimes  Broader stand-level optimization of sets of treatments Optimal forest-level management regimes  Broad forest-wide considerations, such as wood flows, income, and spatial constraints are recognized Optimal supply chains  Region-wide transportation, supply, demand analyses Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

General Scope Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Public Land Planning Ecosystem processes Multiple uses Forest health Climate change Forest Industry Planning Economics Wood flow Spatial placement of activities Recreation Carbon Wildlife habitat Private Land Planning Recreation Economics Other uses

National Forest Planning There are 5.38 million hectares of National Forest System lands in the Southern USA. Three key focus areas of management: 1. Returning ecological systems to their natural resilience and sustaining them. 2. Protecting human, natural and physical resources from degradation and harm. 3. Responding to social needs in an environmentally sensitive manner. Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

National Forest Planning Oconee National Forest (Georgia) Management prescription group Red-cockaded woodpecker habitat Management, maintenance, and restoration of plant communities Recreation Experimental forests Wild and scenic rivers Riparian areas Old growth forests Other Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Percent of land

National Forest Planning Modeling Systems Linear programming State-transition models  Parameterization within a model  Model assumptions or rules Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

Forest Industry Planning There are million hectares of forest industry, timberland investment organization, or real estate investment trust lands in the Southern USA. Three key focus areas of management: 1. Capturing value from the forest resource. 2. Supplying wood to local mills. 3. Managing land in an environmentally responsible manner. Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

Forest Industry Planning The clearcut harvest adjacency problem  Clearcut sizes and their impact on economic returns.  Green-up periods and their impact on economic returns.  Effect of constraint formulation type on time required to generate a solution. Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

Forest Industry Planning Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

Forest Industry Planning The wood flow problem  Different products desired each period.  Beginning / ending inventory constraints.  Even-flow, or deviation in flow allowed.  Biomass. Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

Forest Industry Planning Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Need to have available.....  An optimal stand-level regime for each stand  Multiple other alternative stand-level regimes

Forest Industry Planning Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Even-flow of wood volume produced

Forest Industry Planning Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey About 86% of beginning inventory About 96% of beginning inventory Ending inventory constraint

Forest Industry Planning Modeling Systems Ad-hoc methods Linear programming Mixed integer programming Binary search Heuristics  Parameterization within a model  Model assumptions or rules  Length of time allowed to develop a solution  Global optimum vs. local optimum  Relaxation of constraints  Sophistication of constraints Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

Private Land Planning There are million hectares of privately-owned forest lands in the Southern USA. Key focus areas of management: 1. Multiple use management. 2. Family investment. 3. Practice conservation. Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report NRS-27

Private Land Planning Modeling Systems Ad-hoc methods  Assumptions or rules  Sophistication of the model Southern USA Forest Planning

Organizational Problems or Barriers Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Public Land Planning Time Cost Budget Extensive scope of issues Data Public employees Forest Industry Planning Time Cost Budget Functional relationships Data Technology Private company employees Private Land Planning Not required Time Cost Budget Consultants or state foresters

Organizational Problems or Barriers Placed too much effort on data development Found that data were relatively unavailable Used old technology due to limited funds Failed to adapt to new technology Involved the wrong people  Needed the involvement of decision makers  Needed the involvement of stakeholders and users Were unsure of who were the future customers Had a limited budget for development Placed limited effort on documentation Applied limited effort to training Received no support from direct management Found that periodic timelines were too restrictive Data TechnologyPeople Organizational Commitment Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

Summary Land managers attempt "optimization" at many stages within the planning process. Optimal stand establishment processes Optimal management intensity Optimal nutrient regimes Optimal stand-level management regimes Optimal forest-level management regimes Optimal supply chains The processes employed the and successes obtained vary widely among the different land ownership groups. Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

Summary All land owners pose the same basic types of questions: How much of ________ do we have ? Where is (are the) __________ located ? What is the rate of _____ of ______ ? Is ___________ sustainable in the long-run ? Is _____ possible ? How good is ________ ? Should we use ________ ? Some planning models and processes can be used to address these questions. Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

Summary Many land owners and managers also pose challenges for forest planning efforts. With respect to optimization model development: Can we incorporate _____________ into a planning model ? Is the __________ model better than other models ? Does the ___________ model produce the desired quality of solutions ? How sensitive is the _____________ model to changes in parameters ? With respect to policy analyses: Can we evaluate trade-offs among varying levels of a single constraint ? Can we evaluate different scenarios and different collections of constraints ? Southern USA Forest Planning International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey

International Symposium for the 50th Anniversary of the Forestry Sector Planning in Turkey Planned Forestry For the Desired Future of our Forests Issues facing forest planning in the southern United States Pete Bettinger Professor School of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Georgia Athens, GA USA Teşekkür ederim