1. Southern Forest Sustainability David Wear Project Leader Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service

2. Objective Provide an overview of southern forests— conditions, trends, and possible futures. Provide an overview of southern forests— conditions, trends, and possible futures. …provide a foundation of credible information upon which to build further dialogue… …provide a foundation of credible information upon which to build further dialogue…

3. Scope…

5. Organization Criteria from the Montreal Process Criteria from the Montreal Process Biological Diversity Biological Diversity Productive Capacity Productive Capacity Ecosystem Health and Vitality Ecosystem Health and Vitality Soil and water resources Soil and water resources Global carbon cycles Global carbon cycles Socio-economic benefits Socio-economic benefits Institutional frameworks Institutional frameworks

6. Conservation of biological diversity Ecosystem Ecosystem Species Species Genetic Genetic

7. Trends in Forest Area for the South

8. Rare Forest Communities Focus of concerns Focus of concerns Disproportionately high ecological / conservation values (scarcity=value) Disproportionately high ecological / conservation values (scarcity=value) Spruce-fir impacted by multiple changes Spruce-fir impacted by multiple changes Wetlands/bog complexes and pocosins Wetlands/bog complexes and pocosins Bottomland and floodplain forests Bottomland and floodplain forests Glades, barrens, and prairies Glades, barrens, and prairies Longleaf pine ecosystems. Longleaf pine ecosystems. Atlantic White Cedar Swamps Atlantic White Cedar Swamps Old-growth Old-growth Spruce-fir forests Spruce-fir forests

9. Forest Type Trends

10. Forecast Forest Types, 1995-2040

11. Forest Structure

12. Forecasting fragmentation…

13. Terrestrial Species

14. Amphibians

15. Biological diversity Observations Observations Highly diverse region Highly diverse region Demonstration of resilience Demonstration of resilience Wildlife species Wildlife species Afforestation Afforestation Scarcity—rare communities Scarcity—rare communities Focus on forest-water interface Focus on forest-water interface Questions Questions Do we have data to track forest types of conservation concern? Landscape level assessment of species viability Scale dependent—think endemics Forecasts of ecosystem function Understanding genetic diversity

16. Conservation and maintenance of soil and water resources

17. Water Quality by Watershed

18. Number of Species by Region 1 - 9 10 - 24 25 - 49 50 - 99 100 - 104 Regional Concentrations of At-Risk Fish and Mussel Species

19. Water Quality

20. Soil and Water Resources Observations Observations Highest quality water flows from forested landscapes. Highest quality water flows from forested landscapes. Silvicultural BMP’s do protect soil and water quality Silvicultural BMP’s do protect soil and water quality Concerns focus on mountains and on wetlands Concerns focus on mountains and on wetlands Questions Questions Limited core data Application of BMP’s across an increasingly fragmented landscape? Landscape level linkages between land cover and water quantity Water demand in the South Links between forest condition and ocean fisheries

21. Maintenance of Productive Capacity

22. Timber Production in the South

23. Trends in Forest Area for the South Current timberland area only 3 million acres lower than 1952. Forest acreage stable or increasing in last decade.

24. Inventory volumes

25. Softwood Inventory Growth and Removals 1995-2040

26. Hardwood Inventory, Growth and Removals

27. Changed perspective on timber markets Observations Observations From a premise of timber scarcity… From a premise of timber scarcity… …to a premise of market order …to a premise of market order Private landowners are rational Private landowners are rational Investment proceeds in spite of long production periods Investment proceeds in spite of long production periods Orderly change Orderly change Questions Questions Recent shifts in ownership

28. Maintenance of Forest Ecosystem Health and Viability

29. Nonnative species

30. Native insects and diseases with host dynamics… Intensified management increases availability and contiguity of pine—host species for Southern Pine Beetle and fusiform rust. Intensified management increases availability and contiguity of pine—host species for Southern Pine Beetle and fusiform rust.

31. Mortality

32. Forest ecosystem health and viability Observations Observations Collection of factors will influence certain forest types Collection of factors will influence certain forest types Hardwood types Hardwood types Mountains Mountains Fire is an important factor Fire is an important factor Interactions between neighbors--especially private and public land Interactions between neighbors--especially private and public land Questions Questions System-level effects of multiple assaults Defining range of variability Managing with fire

33. Maintenance of forest contributions to global carbon cycles

34. Potential response to tree planting programs

35. Maintenance and enhancement of long-term multiple socio-economic benefits to meet the needs of society

36. Trends in Human Population

39. Socio-economic benefits Observations Observations Population growth will outstrip the US average Population growth will outstrip the US average Recreation demand growth strong Recreation demand growth strong Shift from utilitarian to biocentric perspective on natural resources Shift from utilitarian to biocentric perspective on natural resources Timber and recreation are important sources of income in rural areas Timber and recreation are important sources of income in rural areas Questions Questions Changing demographics and demands? Social impacts in new production areas? Ability to manage in the WUI Social impacts of production declines?

40. Legal, institutional, and economic framework for forest conservation and sustainable management

41. Forest Ownership in the South

42. Taxes Inheritance taxes… Inheritance taxes… Liquidation or parcelization Liquidation or parcelization Income taxes Income taxes Mixed effects on forest management Mixed effects on forest management Property taxes Property taxes Differential effects on ownerships Differential effects on ownerships

43. Subsidies Subsidies Subsidies Influence behavior Influence behavior Small programs Small programs Agriculture dominates Agriculture dominates

44. Direct Regulation Limited in the South Limited in the South Voluntary BMP programs Voluntary BMP programs Local ordinances Local ordinances Responses to losses of green space Responses to losses of green space Doubled between 1992 and 2000 Doubled between 1992 and 2000

45. Economic Structure Price information Price information Risk mitigation—e.g., fire Risk mitigation—e.g., fire Investment in long run production Investment in long run production

46. Institutions FederalState Nongovernmental organizations Frameworks for assessment and broad scale evaluations Certification programs

47. Legal, institutional, and economic frameworks Observations Observations Well functioning markets for timber products Well functioning markets for timber products Responsiveness demonstrated Responsiveness demonstrated Longleaf restoration Longleaf restoration Conservation easements Conservation easements Red Cockaded woodpecker Red Cockaded woodpecker Ecological concerns have not been avoided Ecological concerns have not been avoided Questions Questions Can institutional arrangement work to avoid problems? Can current institutions work in a fragmented landscape? Does rural-focused delivery work in a wildland urban interface?

48. Concluding... More than data More than data But C and I can help focus data collection… But C and I can help focus data collection…

49. Criteria and Indicator Crosswalk Criterion Number of Indicators Available in SFRA 1 Diversity 97 2 Productive Capacity 55 3 Health and vitality 32 4 Soil and Water 82 5 Carbon 33 6 Socioeconomic 198 7 Institutions 203

50. Concluding… (really) Aggregate analysis can mask important dynamics—what is the best scale? Aggregate analysis can mask important dynamics—what is the best scale? Nation Nation Region Region ???? ???? Current changes may progress rapidly Current changes may progress rapidly Argues for ongoing discussion… Argues for ongoing discussion…

51. Thanks for Listening…