Regional Emission-free Technology Implementation (RETI): Diversifying the U.S. Electricity Portfolio Marc Santos 2008 ASME WISE Intern University of Massachusetts.

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Presentation transcript:

Regional Emission-free Technology Implementation (RETI): Diversifying the U.S. Electricity Portfolio Marc Santos 2008 ASME WISE Intern University of Massachusetts Amherst

Overview Climate Change Action Issue Definition Status of US Electricity Portfolio Transition Options Electricity Portfolio Projections Recommendations

Climate Change Action In 2007 report: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  “Warming of the climate system is Unequivocal”  Reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by % Sept 2007: President Bush states climate action needed 110 th Congress produces 195 pieces of climate change legislation Both Presidential candidates support a cap on GHG emissions

Rise in Electricity Energy Information Administration states electricity will increase by 30% by % increase per year will mean 45% increase by 2050  120 million digital converter boxes = half refrigerator  Plasma TVs use 3-4 times more power  Cell phone, laptop, and video game plug-in power supplies have 40-50% power losses  Potentially plug-in hybrid vehicles

Issue Definition GHG emissions should be reduced to 80% of current levels by US electricity demand to increase 45% by Can the U.S. meet this amount of emission- free generation capacity by 2050? And, if so how?

Why Focus on Electricity? Electricity sector is the largest producer of CO2

Current US Electricity Portfolio Mostly fossil fuels, especially coal No new nuclear facilities built for 30 years Natural gas has been largest recent growth Non-hydroelectric renewables are minimal 2006 production: 4065 billion kilowatt hours

Regional Electricity Use

Nuclear Hydroelectric Geothermal Wind Solar Biomass Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) Current Non-Emitting Technologies

Potential Renewables

Current Population Distribution Energy production should be regional

Evaluating Existing Projections Energy Information Administration (EIA)  2008 Annual Energy Outlook for 2030 Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)  2008 “Prism” Full Portfolio Projection for 2030 International Energy Agency (IEA)  Energy Technology Perspectives Blue Map for 2050

Energy Information Administration Increase in coal use No CCS technology Renewables grow slightly New nuclear plants are built to meet 19% 2008 Annual Energy Outlook projection for 2030

Electric Power Research Institute CCS is developed for fossil fuels Nuclear grows substantially Renewables grow more rapidly than EIA projection PRISM projection for 2030

International Energy Agency Derived from 2008 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios Strategies to 2050

Regional Emission-Free Technology Implementation (RETI) Scenario Adapting the IEA global projections for the US domestic electricity portfolio results in: 25% nuclear 46% renewable  Wind, Solar, Hydroelectric, Biomass, Geothermal 50% CCS technology for fossil fuels End-Use efficiency

Regional Emission-free Technology Implementation (RETI)

RETI Projected Results for 2050 W/ CCS we reach a 73% reduction of 2006 emission levels RETI 2050 RETI scenario

Development Needed for RETI Large increase in Nuclear, Wind, and Solar capacities

Hurdles to Overcome Nuclear  Reprocessing and waste disposal  Rebuilding infrastructure Renewables  Large scale energy storage  Advanced transmission systems “smart grids”  System reliability CCS (Fossil fuels)  Sequestration of Carbon

Recommendations Emission-free Technology Advancement Implement a national emission standard which allows for regional flexibility Implement a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) which allows regional portfolio development Continue production tax credits for investment of renewable technologies. Allocate a substantial percentage of R & D funding to clean power generation technologies without specific inclusion or exclusion of particular emission-free systems.

Recommendations Infrastructure Revision Upgrade current transmission lines to allow for additional capacity of electricity and efficient grid use Create new programs to redevelop US infrastructure by increasing worker training and facility construction to support the manufacture and installation of emission-free technologies.

Recommendations Energy Efficiency Improve financial incentives for energy reduction through economic programs such as federal tax credits and feed in tariffs. Promote the development of efficiency standards in consumer products.

Questions?