William H. Frey The Brookings Institution www.frey-demographer.org The Recent Migration Slowdown and America’s Changing Regional Demographics.

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Presentation transcript:

William H. Frey The Brookings Institution The Recent Migration Slowdown and America’s Changing Regional Demographics

Source: William H. Frey analysis US: Population by Race: 2000 and % 46.3%

Source: William H. Frey analysis US: Population by Age: 2000 and % 20.2%

Source: William H. Frey analysis New Demographic Regions n Melting Pot America n The New Sunbelt n The Heartland

Source: William H. Frey analysis Melting Pot, New Sunbelt and Heartland States New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States

Source: William H. Frey analysis Foreign Born 70% Asian Language at Home 68% Spanish at Home 76% Mixed Marriages 51% Native Born 37% English at Home 34% Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States

Source: William H. Frey analysis Demographic Components, (Rates per 1000) Demographic Components, (Rates per 1000)

Source: William H. Frey analysis Domestic Migration Magnets, Phoenix530,579 2 Riverside, CA 457,430 3Atlanta412,832 4Dallas307,907 5 Las Vegas 299,027 6Tampa254,650 7Charlotte243,399 8Houston242,573

Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, New York -1,920,745 2 Los Angeles -1,337,522 3Chicago-547,430 4Detroit-361,632 5 San Francisco -343,834 6 New Orleans - 298,721 7Miami-284,860 8 San Jose -233,133

Source: William H. Frey analysis Immigrant Magnet Metros, New York 1,079,016 2 Los Angeles 803, ,614 3Miami 506, ,423 4Chicago 363, ,134 5Dallas 323, ,941 6 Washington DC 310, ,222 7Houston 289, ,648 8 San Francisco 257, ,318

Source: William H. Frey analysis US County Growth

Source: William H. Frey analysis US County Growth

Source: William H. Frey analysis CA, West Growth vs

Source: William H. Frey analysis Florida Growth, vs

Source: William H. Frey analysis Annual Population Growth, Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Texas

Source: William H. Frey analysis Annual Population Growth, Los Angeles Metro, New York Metro

Source: William H. Frey analysis Annual Population Growth, Urban, Suburban, Exurban

Source: William H. Frey analysis Migration Slowdown to

Source: William H. Frey analysis Migration between States by Age versus

Source: William H. Frey analysis Reasons for Moving Between States versus

Source: William H. Frey analysis California versus Mountain West Annual Net Domestic Migration

Source: William H. Frey analysis Nevada: Greatest Net Migration Origins: Net Mig. Migration Share of total California192,38269% New York 15,2375% Illinois14,7345% Hawaii10,3584% Michigan10,1254%

Source: William H. Frey analysis California Net Migration by Education: versus California Net Migration by Education: versus

Source: William H. Frey analysis New York versus Florida Annual Net Domestic Migration

Source: William H. Frey analysis Top Metro Net Migration Gainers, Rank Metro Net Mig 1 Phoenix98,789 2 Riverside72,341 3 Tampa51,985 4 Orlando51,826 5 Atlanta51,305 6 Las Vegas 39,331

Source: William H. Frey analysis New and Old Net Migration Gainers, Rank Metro Net Mig 1 Houston49,662 2 Dallas45,241 3 Austin25,654 4 Raleigh20,095 5 Denver19,831 6 Charlotte19,211 9 Atlanta17, Phoenix12, Tampa4, Riverside Las Vegas -1, Orlando-4,279

Source: William H. Frey analysis Florida Metro Areas Annual Net Migration Florida Metro Areas Annual Net Migration

Source: William H. Frey analysis Texas Metro Areas Annual Net Migration

Source: William H. Frey analysis Metro Las Vegas Domestic and International Migration

Source: William H. Frey analysis Metro Phoenix Domestic and International Migration

Source: William H. Frey analysis Metro Riverside, CA Domestic and International Migration

Source: William H. Frey analysis Metro Los Angeles, CA Domestic and International Migration

Source: William H. Frey analysis Race Composition of Regions 2008 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

Hispanic Concentrations Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates Percent of County Population

Asian Concentrations Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

Black Concentrations Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

White Concentrations Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

Source: William H. Frey analysis CA and MT West: Race Change

Source: William H. Frey analysis Race Ethnic Profile: 1990, 2008 MOUNTAIN WESTCALIFORNIA

Source: William H. Frey analysis Annual Hispanic Growth Rates, : Selected West Metros

Source: William H. Frey analysis State Growth in Child Population*, Under age 18

Source: William H. Frey analysis Percent Non White Children*, 2015 * Under age 15

Source: William H. Frey analysis Percent Children with Immigrant Parents 51% 35% 34% 32% 31% 23%

Source: William H. Frey analysis US Growth by Age

Source: William H. Frey analysis Age 65 + Growth, , US States 25% & above 20% -24% 10% -19% under 10%

Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest 65+ Growth, Metros over 500,000 1Provo Raleigh38.6 3Austin36.8 4Atlanta Boise City Orlando Las Vegas Dallas28.6 9Tucson Houston28.1

Source: William H. Frey analysis Percent 65+ population for States, % & above 12% -13% 11% -11.9% under 12%

Source: William H. Frey analysis 140% & above 100% -139% 70% -99% under 69% Projected Age 65+ Growth , US States

Source: William H. Frey analysis Projected Age 65+ Growth, FloridaCaliforniaNew York percent growth

Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: US

Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: California

Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: Nevada

Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: Arizona

Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: Minnesota

Source: William H. Frey analysis United States United States Projected Race Compositions, 2025 Under Age % whiteblackIndianAsianHispanic 62 % Age % Age 65+

Source: William H. Frey analysis Projected State Population Growth % and above 10% to 15% 5% to 10% Under 5%

Source: William H. Frey analysis Projected Changes in Congressional Seats after 2010 Census

Source: William H. Frey analysis Fast-Growing Purple States, 2008 Purple-Dem Purple-Rep All Other

Source: William H. Frey analysis Slow-Growing Purple States, 2008 Purple-Dem Purple-Rep All Other

Source: William H. Frey analysis Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements “Fast-Growing” vs “Slow-Growing” Purple State Growth,

Source: William H. Frey analysis 2008 Blue States: Won by Whites and Minorities

Source: William H. Frey analysis Nevada, New Mexico Voters: 2004, 2008 NevadaNew Mexico

Source: William H. Frey analysis Nevada – Democratic Margins

Source: William H. Frey analysis New Mexico – Democratic Margins

Source: William H. Frey analysis Useful Websites Useful Websites