National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Lance Wood Science and Operations Officer Assessing the Impact of SPoRT Datasets Utilizing a local WRF.

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Presentation transcript:

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Lance Wood Science and Operations Officer Assessing the Impact of SPoRT Datasets Utilizing a local WRF

HGX Local WRF (Winter ) Workstation Cluster: Two Dell Precision 690 Workstations Intel Quad Xeon Processor with four 2.33 GHz CPUs (8 CPUs) RAM: 4 GB OS: RHEL 5.4 Model: WRF EMS v beta2 Dimension: 129 X 129 Spacing: 4 KM Levels: 35 Length: 30 HR Timestep: 24 seconds Initialized with: NAM218 2 runs every 6 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) First run utilizes MODIS SST Second run utilizes RTG SST HR Only testing MODIS SST

HGX Local WRF (July-August 2011) Workstation Cluster: Two Dell Precision 690 Workstations Intel Quad Xeon Processor with four 2.33 GHz CPUs (8 CPUs) RAM: 4 GB OS: RHEL 5.4 Model: WRF EMS v Dimension: 150 X 150 (larger) Spacing: 4 KM Levels: 35 Length: 36 HR (6 hours longer) Timestep: 24 seconds Initialized with: NAM218 2 runs every 12 hours (00,12 UTC) (fewer runs) First run utilizes SPoRT Composite SST, NASA LIS Second run utilizes RTG SST HR, NAM PTILE Testing SPoRT Composite SST, NASA LIS

HGX Local WRF (November Present) Workstation Cluster: Two Dell Precision 690 Workstations Intel Quad Xeon Processor with four 2.33 GHz CPUs (8 CPUs) RAM: 4 GB OS: RHEL 5.4 Model: WRF EMS v Dimension: 98 X 133 (smaller) Spacing: 3 KM Levels: 40 Length: 24 HR (12 hours shorter) Timestep: 50 seconds Initialized with: GFS 4 runs every 6 hours (00, 06,12, 18 UTC) HGX/MOB run utilizes SPoRT SST, LIS, GVF SPoRT provides control run (6Z) ! Testing SST, LIS, GVF and at two sites (HGX, MOB)

WFO Houston/Galveston Forecast Area Most of Southeast Texas

Winter : Focused on the seabreeze and convection in general. Focused on the seabreeze and convection in general. Examined surface dew point, winds, temperatures. Examined surface dew point, winds, temperatures. Examined WRF forecast reflectivity and compared to the observed reflectivity. Examined WRF forecast reflectivity and compared to the observed reflectivity. Focused at different flow regimes (onshore - WAA, offshore- CAA, near coast surface low development ). Focused at different flow regimes (onshore - WAA, offshore- CAA, near coast surface low development ). Examined surface temps and winds. Examined surface temps and winds. Summer July-August 2011:

Orientation/timing similar across coastal zones. Orientation/timing similar across coastal zones. The SPoRT SST/LIS initialized WRF was slightly faster moving the boundary well inland, and appeared to be more accurate. The SPoRT SST/LIS initialized WRF was slightly faster moving the boundary well inland, and appeared to be more accurate. Can have affect on convection developing well inland in the vicinity of the northward advancing boundary. Can have affect on convection developing well inland in the vicinity of the northward advancing boundary. Seabreeze

August 12 8 PM SPoRT WRF Control WRF

August 12 9 PM

August PM

In general, both versions of the WRF models tended to over develop convection on non- active days, especially in west/southwest areas that were often strongly capped. In general, both versions of the WRF models tended to over develop convection on non- active days, especially in west/southwest areas that were often strongly capped. Both versions had some timing issues, but in general, provide useful guidance to forecasters, particularly on the possible degree of coverage. Both versions had some timing issues, but in general, provide useful guidance to forecasters, particularly on the possible degree of coverage. The SPoRT SST/LIS initialized WRF was better on most active convective days. The SPoRT SST/LIS initialized WRF was better on most active convective days. Convection

Some convective examples…. August 10 th 1 PMAugust 10 th 5 PM SPoRT WRF Control WRF

August 12 th 5 PM Control WRF SPoRT WRF

August 12 th 6 PM

August 12 th 7 PM

Summer It was HOT !!

Southern Region Modeling Collaboration (SPoRT, WFO Mobile, WFO Houston/Galveston) Develop a methodology for an organized, modeling collaboration effort that can expand to other WFOs. Targeting two primary forecast challenges of interest: heavy precipitation, and convective initiation. Produce experimental (with SPoRT data) and control forecasts (no SPoRT data) that are similar in dynamical core, initialization, and physics. Real-time control run provided by SPoRT, as well as hard drive for local WRF archive. SPoRT assists with model sensitivity comparisons by examining other physics packages for specific events related to the forecast challenges. SPoRT provides expertise with MET (Model Evaluation Tools) package for quantitative evaluation.

First case with SR Modeing Collaboration configuration in place November 8 th 2011 – Severe and Heavy Rainfall Case - 11AM SPoRT WRF

November 8 th 2011 – Severe and Heavy Rainfall Case – 1 PM EF1 Tornado occurred at Kingwood, Texas at 137 PM Developing supercell from SPoRT WRF lining up with reality!

November 8 th 2011 – Severe and Heavy Rainfall Case – 2 PM

Questions ? Thanks for support from: Mark Keehn, Scott Overpeck (WFO HGX) Brad Zavodsky, Jonathan Case, Andrew Molthan (SPoRT) Jeffrey Medlin (WFO MOB)