1. Incorporation of TAMDAR into Real-time Local Modeling Tom Hultquist Science & Operations Officer NOAA/National Weather Service Marquette, MI

2. In a nutshell… Modeling system setup Modeling system setup Distribution of model output Distribution of model output Subjective impressions of model output Subjective impressions of model output Data deprivation experiments Data deprivation experiments Upcoming presentations Upcoming presentations Future work Future work

3. Modeling System FSL’s Local Analysis & Prediction System (LAPS), version 0-24-3 used for data assimilation FSL’s Local Analysis & Prediction System (LAPS), version 0-24-3 used for data assimilation Input data from MADIS & AWIPS netCDF files (METAR, RAOB, ACARS, Satellite, Maritime, Profiler, Mesonet, etc…) Input data from MADIS & AWIPS netCDF files (METAR, RAOB, ACARS, Satellite, Maritime, Profiler, Mesonet, etc…) LAPS is cycled hourly with WRF-ARW (v 2.0.3.1), with 1- hour WRF-ARW forecast used as first guess in LAPS analysis (and subsequent LAPS analysis used to initialize WRF-ARW) LAPS is cycled hourly with WRF-ARW (v 2.0.3.1), with 1- hour WRF-ARW forecast used as first guess in LAPS analysis (and subsequent LAPS analysis used to initialize WRF-ARW) Boundary conditions obtained from NAM (32 km files) Boundary conditions obtained from NAM (32 km files) 2 runs per day (03 UTC & 15 UTC) to 30 hours (hourly cycling restarted every 12 hours, using operational RUC for initial first guess) 2 runs per day (03 UTC & 15 UTC) to 30 hours (hourly cycling restarted every 12 hours, using operational RUC for initial first guess)

4. Modeling System Runs performed on dual processor Intel Xeon (3.3 GHz) workstation with 2 Gb RAM Runs performed on dual processor Intel Xeon (3.3 GHz) workstation with 2 Gb RAM Output from 30-hour simulations is available around 19 UTC (for 15 UTC run) and 07 UTC (for 03 UTC run) Output from 30-hour simulations is available around 19 UTC (for 15 UTC run) and 07 UTC (for 03 UTC run) Output from intermediate (cycled) runs and analyses is not currently made available Output from intermediate (cycled) runs and analyses is not currently made available

5. Modeling System 15 km grid spacing 15 km grid spacing 31 vertical layers 31 vertical layers 50 mb model top 50 mb model top KF convective scheme KF convective scheme Lin et al. microphysics Lin et al. microphysics RRTM longwave RRTM longwave Goddard shortwave Goddard shortwave Noah land surface model Noah land surface model YSU PBL YSU PBL

6. Model Output Output from the simulations is currently available at: Output from the simulations is currently available at: http://wseta.mqt.noaa.gov/SOO/wrf_html/wrf.php http://wseta.mqt.noaa.gov/SOO/wrf_html/wrf.php http://wseta.mqt.noaa.gov/SOO/wrf_html/wrf.php http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/data/wrf_html/wrf.php http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/data/wrf_html/wrf.php http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mqt/data/wrf_html/wrf.php Output is in the form of RIP4 generated PNG images Output is in the form of RIP4 generated PNG images Output is hourly, with looping possible through javascript Output is hourly, with looping possible through javascript A variety of basic fields can be displayed as well as a few aviation specific fields and Skew-T diagrams for select locations A variety of basic fields can be displayed as well as a few aviation specific fields and Skew-T diagrams for select locations

8. Impressions Unable to perform any meaning objective verification Unable to perform any meaning objective verification Model output used somewhat frequently by local staff, but have received only minimal feedback from other offices (general consensus from SOOs is that forecasters are already overwhelmed with model output) Model output used somewhat frequently by local staff, but have received only minimal feedback from other offices (general consensus from SOOs is that forecasters are already overwhelmed with model output) Has been most useful in forecasting lack of convection (when operational models indicated convection) Has been most useful in forecasting lack of convection (when operational models indicated convection) Has also been useful in wind forecasts around Great Lakes Has also been useful in wind forecasts around Great Lakes LAPS balance routine often seems to remove detail/information which could prove useful LAPS balance routine often seems to remove detail/information which could prove useful

9. Data Deprivation Sought input from CR SOOs to help identify cases which could prove useful for data deprivation experiments Sought input from CR SOOs to help identify cases which could prove useful for data deprivation experiments Unfortunately, have received no recommendations, so only a few (locally identified) cases have be archived thus far Unfortunately, have received no recommendations, so only a few (locally identified) cases have be archived thus far Data from three cases has been archived, and these cases will be re- run identically, with the exception of TAMDAR data (which will be removed from one of the runs) Data from three cases has been archived, and these cases will be re- run identically, with the exception of TAMDAR data (which will be removed from one of the runs) February 27-28, 2005 – Significant winter storm and lake effect February 27-28, 2005 – Significant winter storm and lake effect June 24, 2005 – Non-event where real-time runs appeared to successfully capture overwhelming convective inhibition June 24, 2005 – Non-event where real-time runs appeared to successfully capture overwhelming convective inhibition August 9, 2005 – Widespread severe weather (bow echo) event in upper Michigan August 9, 2005 – Widespread severe weather (bow echo) event in upper Michigan Currently working on first case (preliminary results encouraging with regard to low track and placement of frontogenetically driven heavy snow band) ; Plan to complete these re-runs by early September Currently working on first case (preliminary results encouraging with regard to low track and placement of frontogenetically driven heavy snow band) ; Plan to complete these re-runs by early September Still interested in hearing about additional cases; A 14-day running archive is kept of all data, so cases can be “saved” within 2 weeks of their occurrence Still interested in hearing about additional cases; A 14-day running archive is kept of all data, so cases can be “saved” within 2 weeks of their occurrence

10. Sharing of Information Will present a summary of this TAMDAR modeling effort at the 14 th Annual U.S./Canada Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop Will present a summary of this TAMDAR modeling effort at the 14 th Annual U.S./Canada Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop Some information (particularly case examples) to be presented at the four NWS forecast offices in Michigan during this fall’s “traveling SOO show” in October Some information (particularly case examples) to be presented at the four NWS forecast offices in Michigan during this fall’s “traveling SOO show” in October

11. Future Work Try to get some additional cases identified Try to get some additional cases identified Possibly shrink domain and increase resolution of experiment prior to winter to better test performance during lake effect snow events Possibly shrink domain and increase resolution of experiment prior to winter to better test performance during lake effect snow events Update to latest versions of WRF-ARW and LAPS (should be able to get this done soon) Update to latest versions of WRF-ARW and LAPS (should be able to get this done soon) Cease local workstation Eta runs and replace with WRF-ARW (could allow for simultaneous runs with/without TAMDAR to provide real- time comparison) Cease local workstation Eta runs and replace with WRF-ARW (could allow for simultaneous runs with/without TAMDAR to provide real- time comparison)