CLIMATE CHANGE: IT IS NOT TOO LATE IF FARMERS ACT NOW WMO/COST 718 ETWCF Meeting Geneva, 15-18 November, 2004 CLIMATE CHANGE: IT IS NOT TOO LATE IF FARMERS ACT NOW Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana Slovenia

Weather, Climate and Farmers

OBSERVED CHANGE

Observed Global Temperature Change 1861-2003

Annual surface temperature trends for periods 1901 to 2000, 1910 to 1945, 1946 to 1975, and 1976 to 2000 (°C/decade) Source: Folland et al. (2001)

More than Global Warming Changes in Extremes Summer 2003 in Europe But climate change is more than a steady global rise of temperature. There will be spatial and temporal variations. The changes in temperature are expected to be greatest over the continents, particularly in northern latitudes during winter - perhaps some 40% more than the global average. In addition, from simple statistics, we can expect changes in the frequency and variability of extreme events as this slide shows. To my mind, this is much more of a concern. It is often the extreme events, short though they may be in duration, that cause the most damage. The graph on the right-hand side shows just how extreme were last summer’s temperatures in Europe.

Regional temperature change 1900 to 2000 Models are based on physics and not history. Match is because climate must obey the laws of physics. The warming since 1950 is not natural… 1.0 0.5 -0.5 North America Asia Europe Temperature change C 1900 2000 2000 1900 1900 2000 model natural factors observations model natural + human factors Computer models versus observations: finding a human signal

PREDICTIONS

Global Temperature 1000 – 2100 AD (IPCC) 2.0 0.0 6.0 4.0 Change (°C) from 1961-90 average 1000 1500 2000 Observations (proxy data) Observations (instrumental) Projections

The SRES driving forces and storylines Nakicenovic et al. (2000)

IPCC Data Distribution Centre http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk Provides climate and related data, impact and adaptation assessment with emphasis on the needs of developing countries - climate model projections and observed climate data - socio-economic baseline and scenario data - other environmental information (atm. composition, sea level) - supporting documentation and guidance material

Hard copies available http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/asres/scatter_plots/scatterplots_home.html

South Europe and N Africa (Region 14): 2010-2039

Large area model General Circulation Model Climate change scenario Regional climate model Climate change scenario spatial variability Crop model model uncertainties Large area model crop forecast for future output processing

http://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/impacts_vulnerability_and_adaptation/items/570.php

http://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/impacts_vulnerability_and_adaptation/items/570.php

Changes in rainfall with doubled CO2 (CSIRO model) 160 40°N 40°S 140 120 100 Change in frequency (%) 80 60 40 20 –20 0.2-0.4 0.4-0.8 0.8-1.6 1.6-3.2 3.2-6.4 6.4-12.8 12.8-25.6 >25.6 Daily rainfall class (mm day –1 )

UNCERTAINTY

Cascade of uncertainty CO2 concentration Global-mean sea level Global-mean temperature Regional temperatures Regional temperature extremes Regional precipitation Cloud cover Climatic variability / extremes High confidence Low confidence

Cascade of Uncertainty in Assessment of Impacts

IMPACTS

The climate change affects on agriculture Productivity (quantity and quality) Agricultural practices (changes of water use, agricultural inputs -herbicides, insecticides, fertilizers) Environmental level (frequency and intensity of soil drainage -nitrogen leaching, soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity) Rural space (loss of cultivated lands, land speculation, land renunciation, hydraulic amenities)

Several changing parameters impact agriculture a direct effect is the composition of the earth atmosphere :CO2 and ozone (CH4, NO2 and CFC to have no impact on physiological processus). some indirect effects are climate parameters resulting from climate change : temperature, insolation, rainfall, humidity other indirect effects are the side effects due to the climatic changes : increase of the sea level, changes in ocean currents, tornadoes..

Additional People at Risk of Hunger under the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios, (Parry, et al. in Global Environmental Change, 2004) 200 180 160 140 120 Additional Millions of People 100 80 60 40 20 2020 2050 2080 A2 - Regional Enterprise B2 - Local Stewardship

Key impacts on wheat yields for different regions N. England + - % Yield S. Europe 0.5 1.0 Deg C N. India Local food production ? Regional food security ? Global food security ?

Why farmers in developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change 1) Impacts are worse Coastal vulnerability Closer to margin of tolerance Economic structure Poorer nutrition and health infrastructure 2) Lower capacity to adapt Availability of technology Institutional capacity Know-how and education Financial capacity

Climate Sensitivity Functions of the US and India Mendelsohn and Dinar (2000) US Response Function Impact on Farm Value/Net Income (billions of US $) -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 India Response Function -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.6 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Temperature Change, oC

MITIGATION no uncertainty on the need to stabilize GHG concentration in atmosphere need to initiate mitigation urgently

Agriculture has many unique opportunities to manage greenhouse gases Reduce Greenhouse gas emissions Atmospheric C to store in soils and perennial crops Remove Innovate to replace fossil fuels with bio-based energy, chemicals and materials Replace

Opportunities for mitigation in agriculture Carbon sequestration (possibly increasing N2O) Land management (tillage, irrigation management, fertilizer management, cover crops, eliminating fallow) Land use change to grassland, forest Emission reduction: CO2, N2O, methane Energy emissions (direct, induced energy use) Livestock: enteric fermentation, manure management Bio-energy products, renewables (reduces energy CO2 emissions)

GHG Mitigation Potential from Agriculture Sink Enhancing Management Practices Increase no-till Decrease summerfallow Increase hay in crop rotation Improve grazing management Increase permanent cover Increase shelterbelts GHG Source-Reducing Improve nutrient management Improve feeding management Improve manure management

REDUCE, REMOVE, REPLACE + RESPOND Greenhouse gas emissions Respond The climate is going to change requiring adaptation Agricultural GHG Management Atmospheric C to store in soils and perennial crops Remove Innovate to replace fossil fuels with bio-based energy, chemicals and materials Replace

ADAPTATION ‘adjustments in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli and their impacts … ...to moderate damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change’

Concept of adaptation in agriculture Adaptation refers to responses by individuals, groups and governments to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects to reduce vulnerability to adverse impacts or damage potential, or to realize opportunities associated with climate change (Dolan et al., 2001). Responses should be beneficial regardless of how or whether climate changes

Adjustment Time (years) Adaptation Options Possible at various levels - farmer, economic agent, macro Potential and costs of adaptation - possibly through historic analysis of technology penetration Reilly and Schimmelpfenng (1999) show the relative speed of adoption of various measures: Adaptation Measure Adjustment Time (years) Variety Adoption 3-14 Dams and Irrigation 50-100 Variety Development 8-15 Tillage Systems 10-12 Opening New Lands 3-10 Irrigation Equipment 20-25 Fertilizer Adoption 10

Relative Inertia in Adaptation Costing adaptation table

Climate adaptation should be iterative

Adaptation options (+technique needs) Development and adoption of new technologies Promotion of agriculture extension services Improving water management Improving farm management Diversification of income earning and employment opportunities Institutional planning and implementation Improving infrastructure, enhance adaptive capacity including investment and accumulation of capital.

Development and adoption of new technologies Mechanical innovations - irrigation - conservation tillage - integrated drainage systems Crop breeding (“climate” resistant varieties) - improved resistance to changing diseases and insects - heat and drought resistant crop varieties - use of traditional varieties bred for storm and drought resistance - investment in seed banks Biotechnology

Splicing in a gene to raise the max T of photosynthesis Biotechnology: Splicing in a gene to raise the max T of photosynthesis (tobacco with gene from Arabidosis thaliana) Genetically modified

Promotion of agriculture extension services key role in promoting agriculture productivity in developing countries Improving water management better water distribution strategies changing crop and irrigation schedules to use rainfall more effectively improving irrigation technologies water recycling and the conjunctive use of groundwater water price

Improving farm management changing farm production practices diversification of crop and livestock varieties replacement of plant types, cultivars and animal breeds with climate resistant new varieties altering the intensity of fertilizer, pesticide application modernization and improving farm level managerial capacity: altering capital and labor inputs to reduce risks Diversification of income earning and employment opportunities alternative livelihood options need to be encouraged income diversification off farm activities (trading home produced goods, providing services)

Institutional planning and implementation Institutional reforms (to achive decision-making structures that support long term planning and enhance adaptations to both short and long term climate impacts) The governments need to reverse declining investments in agricultural research and extension Improved training and general education of populations dependent on agriculture

Improving infrastructure, enhance adaptive capacity, including investment and accumulation of capital The adjustment of capital (and labor) inputs can help farmers to make the necessary adaptations Removal of subsidies, which can, by limiting changes in prices, mask the climate change signal in the marketplace Food programs and other social security programs to provide insurance against supply changes

What do we know about the connections between mitigation, adaptation and impacts ? All mitigation Cost of impacts less more Cost of mitigation less more Mix of mitigate/ adapt/ impact No action All adaptation Cost of adaptation less more (Holdridge diagram)

Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change

CONCLUSIONS Agrometeorologist should help farmers make transition from “passive acceptance” of climate change by equipping them to make an “active response” Both agrometeorologists and farmers should realize as soon as possible that The past may not longer be a good guide for the future. Adaptation cannot be a substitute mitigation