Homicide Prediction Robert Dobynes Ken Lynch Misty Schutzius Danelle Tate

Our Prediction  Expected number of Homicides in the City of St. Louis  103  Expected number of homicides in District 5  18  Expected number of homicides in District 6  33

Our Forecast

Forecasted Crimes per Capita (10,000) District

Estimated 2014 Population ,289 53,868 48,723 19,671 12,407 34,197 30,263 15,434 31,776 Homicides Total 104

Old 9 Districts

New 6 Districts The key areas of District 5 are now part of District 6

Areas to Watch: District 6

Areas to Watch: District 6 – Neighborhood 74 - Baden  Baden median real estate prices are $58,583, which is less expensive than 93.0% of Missouri neighborhoods and 95.4% of all U.S. neighborhoods.  Most of the residential real estate is renter occupied.  Rents here are currently lower in price then 48.9% of Missouri neighborhoods.  Vacant apartments or homes are a major fact of life in Baden.  The current real estate vacancy rate here is 24.1%.  This is higher than the rate of vacancies in 90.0% of all U.S. neighborhoods.

Areas to Watch: District 6 – Neighborhood 74 - Baden  There are more incarcerated people living here than 99.4% of neighborhoods in the U.S.  3.9% of adults here having earned a bachelor's degree.  This is a lower rate of college graduates found in 96.9% of America's neighborhoods.  The Baden neighborhood has an income lower than 93.5% of U.S. neighborhoods.  With 54.9% of the children here below the federal poverty line.  This neighborhood has a higher rate of childhood poverty than 93.3% of U.S. neighborhoods.

Areas to Watch: District 6 – Neighborhood 74 - Baden  Median household income in 2011: Baden:$29,554 - Missouri: $45,247  Average household size: Baden:2.4 people - Missouri: 2.5 people  Percentage of single-mother households (among all households): Baden:25.2% -Missouri: 9.8%  Percentage of population below poverty level: Baden:29.2% - Missouri:15.8%  Educational Attainment: Less than High School: Baden: 32.9% - Missouri: 12.4% High School or Equivalent: Baden: 16.9% - Missouri: 31.5%

Areas to Watch: District 5

Areas to Watch: District 5 – Neighborhood 59 – JeffVanDerLou  N Grand Blvd / Cass Ave median real estate prices are $54,216  This is less expensive than 95.7% of Missouri neighborhoods and 96.6% of all U.S. neighborhoods.  Most of the residential real estate is occupied by a mixture of owners and renters.  Average rental prices in N Grand Blvd / Cass Ave are currently $399, based on NeighborhoodScout's exclusive analysis.  Rents here are currently lower in price then 83.1% of Missouri neighborhoods.

Areas to Watch: District 5 – Neighborhood 59 – JeffVanDerLou  The current real estate vacancy rate here is 39.3%.  This is higher than the rate of vacancies in 97.2% of all U.S. neighborhoods  This neighborhood has an income lower than 83.1% of U.S. neighborhoods.  47.9% of the children here below the federal poverty line,  This neighborhood has a higher rate of childhood poverty than 89.6% of U.S. neighborhoods.  There are more people living in the N Grand Blvd / Cass Ave neighborhood employed as sales and service workers (39.9%) than almost any neighborhood in the country.

Areas to Watch: District 5 – Neighborhood 59 – JeffVanDerLou  19.9% of this neighborhood's households are run by single mothers, which is a higher concentration than in 97.0% of American neighborhoods.  The neighbors in the N Grand Blvd / Cass Ave neighborhood in St. Louis are lower-middle income, making it a below average income neighborhood.  Research showed strong statistical correlations among high rates of children living in single parent households and:  neighborhood crime - particularly violent crime  neighborhood poverty  the percentage of low weight births  rates of infant mortality

Areas to Watch: District 5 – Neighborhood 59 – JeffVanDerLou  Median household income in 2011: JeffVanderLou: $21,619 - Missouri: $45,247  Average household size: JeffVanderLou: 2.4 people - Missouri: 2.5 people  Percentage of population below poverty level: JeffVanderLou: 40.5% - Missouri:15.8%  Educational Attainment: Less than High School: JeffVanderLou: 38.0% - Missouri: 12.4% High School or Equivalent: JeffVanderLou: 13.1% - Missouri: 31.5%

Methods of Homicide Prevention  Hot Spot Policing  Drones  Cameras  Job Creation  Education