A discussion of “The Science of Climate Change” From Richard Tol’s 2014 book: Climate economics: economic analysis of climate, climate change and climate.

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Presentation transcript:

A discussion of “The Science of Climate Change” From Richard Tol’s 2014 book: Climate economics: economic analysis of climate, climate change and climate policy. Michael Springborn April 2, 2015

(Stockholms Initiativet, 2014) (Tol, 2014)

The 3 most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ambient CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 0, have risen since the Industrial Revolution. (Tol, 2014) (IPCC, 2007)

Greenhouse gases are transparent to visible light from the sun, but opaque to infrared radiation from Earth (EPA, 2015) (Tol, 2014)

Changes in radiative forcing (energy/m 2 ) are dominated by human actions, including emissions of gases and land cover changes. (IPCC, 2007)

Globally, mean surface temperature records (black line) can be explained with models using natural and anthropogenic forcing (pink) but not the latter alone (blue). (IPCC, 2007)

By 2100 global mean temperatures will likely be 1-4 degrees Celsius higher than today (Tol, 2014) (IPCC, 2007)

Warming will be pronounced at the poles, in winter and at night and over land. (Tol, 2014) (IPCC, 2007)

By 2100 the sea will likely rise by 0.2M or more since warming causes water to expand and land ice to melt (Tol, 2014) Projected sea level rise for the 21 st century under various scenarios (IPCC, 2007)

References IPCC (2007). Climate change 2007-the physical science basis: Working group I contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC (Vol. 4). Solomon, S. (Ed.) Cambridge University Press. Tol, R. S. (2014). Climate economics: economic analysis of climate, climate change and climate policy. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenhem, UK.

The 3 most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ambient CO2, CH4, and N20, have risen since the Industrial Revolution.