District Surface Water Model (DSWM) Project Training Webinar SWFWMD December 19, 2013

Agenda  Agenda  Presentation  Background  DSWM development and calibration  Select a watershed to go through  Results for all watersheds  HSPF  Background/Theory  Data  Model development steps  Interfaces  Run procedures  Recharge Rate Extraction  Hands-on Session 212/19/2013

Objectives  To develop and calibrate an HSPF*-based numerical model(s) that simulates surface water flow and groundwater recharge in the Northern District Model (NDM) domain area and the entire District. DSWM – District-wide Surface Water Model.  To update the existing NDM (Version 3) with recharge and ET estimated by the surface water model. * HSPF – Hydrologic Simulation Program, Fortran 312/19/2013

DSWM Development and Calibration

Model Development 12/19/20135  Segmentation and Land Use  Meteorological Data  Other Input Data (springs, irrigation, etc.)  Characterize Land and Stream Segments  Observed Streamflow Data/Calibration Locations  Calibration

Land Segmentation 12/19/20136  Basis for land segments is District’s “DrainageBasin” data derived from FDEP Basin-24 coverage  Segment size similar to previous models: INTB and IBC  Adjustments to boundaries to accommodate waterbody transition (lake vs river), tributary connections, and stream gage locations  Non-contributing segments were “disconnected” and assigned parameters that resulted in all rainfall inputs that don’t evaporate going to recharge

Land Use 12/19/20137  Land Use  Based on 2004 Florida Land Use from SWFWMD, SRWMD, SJRWMD, and SFWMD  Used INTB categories and procedures  Categories: Forest, Grass/Pasture, Agriculture/Irrigated, Mining/Other, Urban, Wetland, Urban Impervious, Water  Aggregated to model categories using FLUCCS codes  Impervious category  Effective Impervious Area = directly connected impervious areas  EIA computed by percentages of FLUCCS categories  All impervious area combined into a single “Urban Impervious” category

Meteorological Data – Rainfall 12/19/20138  Rainfall data is NEXRAD (i.e., radar-derived) data at a 2x2 km grid resolution and 15 minute interval  NEXRAD data provided by District  Rainfall inputs for PERLNDs and IMPLNDs in each model segment are area-weighted averages of the rainfall values of the pixels overlying the segment  Data are stored in WDM file  A pilot study on one watershed determined that the NEXRAD data were sufficiently similar to the gage-derived rainfall database used in the INTB model to support a calibrated model  Differences between NEXRAD and gage rainfall were observed

Meteorological Data – Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) 12/19/20139  PET data are computed (Priestly-Taylor method) at the same 2x2 km grid as used by NEXRAD  PET data are 1-day totals; data are available for June December 2010  PET data developed by USGS and obtained from USGS  PET inputs for PERLNDs and IMPLNDs in each model segment are area-weighted averages of the PET values of the pixels overlying the segment  Daily PET data were disaggregated to 1 hour time step using a seasonally varying distribution function based on the pattern of daylight at the latitude of the watershed; data stored in WDM file  The pilot study determined that the USGS GOES PET data were very similar to the gage-derived PET database used in the INTB model; differences had minimal impact on model results

Irrigation 12/19/  Irrigation is applied to the Agriculture/Irrigated PERLND in each model segment  Amounts based on District’s monthly water use permit data for GW and surface water pumping  Amounts separated into Spray and Drip categories  Monthly totals disaggregated to daily using a “PET deficit” computed from the rainfall and PET data  Data are stored in WDM files  Daily Spray amount is applied as “rainfall” over three hours starting at 7 AM  Daily Drip amount is applied as “surface inflow” (not subject to interception) over six hours starting at 7 AM

Surface Water Pumping 12/19/  Surface water pumping (diversions) computed from District’s monthly water use permit database  Monthly surface water pumping totals for all permits in a subwatershed are summed, disaggregated to a constant daily rate, and stored in a WDM file  Water is removed from the model reach in the subwatershed where pumping occurs

Springs 12/19/  Flow from springs are added to the model reach in the subwatershed where the springs are located  Spring discharge timeseries obtained from USGS and WM Districts and from pre-existing models  Springs:  Crystal, Rainbow, Silver, Homosassa, Chassahowitzka, Weeki Wachee, Wekiva River watershed springs, Gourdneck, Harris,

Observed Streamflow Data 12/19/  Observed daily streamflow is used to compare with simulated flow during calibration  Calibration/comparison performed at 73 gage locations  Data obtained from District database, USGS, and SJRWMD  Data stored in WDM files

Data Used to Characterize Land Areas and Stream/Lake Reaches 12/19/  DEM – land area slope, stream slope, stream channel  Soils – infiltration  Land use – segment watershed by landuse/cover  NHD – stream and lake locations, sizes, connectivity  Existing models – conveyance system connectivity, lake and stream configuration, stream cross sections, HSPF FTABLEs  USGS - stream cross sections and rating curves  Lake surveys – lake FTABLEs  Depth to Groundwater – infiltration, target ET

Calibration 12/19/  Calibration followed the standard hierarchical methodology  Focusing first on the overall water balance using the LZSN (lower zone nominal storage), INFILT (infiltration index), DEEPFR (fraction of GW inflow that is lost to recharge), and major ET parameters (e.g., LZETP)  Maintain reasonable differences in land-use sensitive parameters within a watershed  Compare total actual ET with land-use specific target ET and adjust balance between ET and recharge as necessary  Adjust low flow/high flow distribution with INFILT, AGWRC (GW recession), and BASET (baseflow ET)

Calibration (continued) 12/19/  Adjust storm shape using INFILT, UZSN (upper zone nominal storage), INTFW (interflow), and IRC (interflow recession)  Comparisons between observed and simulated used in calibration  Hydrographs  Cumulative flow graphs  Flow duration graphs  Annual runoff totals  Statistics (errors at various flow regimes, correlation coefficient, NS model fit efficiency)

Overview of DSWM Watersheds 12/19/  Area separated into 12 major watersheds to make model input and output manageable and reduce simulation times  HAT – Hillsborough River, Alafia River, and other Tampa area watersheds  CRY – Crystal River, Pithlachascotee River, Anclote River, Chassahowitzka River, Homosassa River, Weeki Wachi  WIT – Withlacoochee River  WAC – Waccasassa River  OKL – Oklawaha River, including Orange Lake area

Watersheds (continued) 12/19/  KIS – Kissimmee River  MAN - Manatee/Little Manatee  MSR - Myakka and Sarasota Bay area  PCH – Peace River and Charlotte Harbor area  WOK - Western Okeechobee  CAL - Caloosahatchee River  EXT – Extended area - Etonia/Rice Creeks, Lake George area, Wekiva River

Summary of DSWM Development 12/19/ Principal Inputs: NEXRAD 15-minute rainfall and daily computed PET dataset, 2004 Florida Land Use (seven categories – same method as INTB); Segmentation: average size = 44 sq miles Irrigation Input: based on groundwater and surface water pumping data; same method as INTB Calibration: ~75 calibration locations ET Comparisons: within error bounds of target ET (+/- 10%) for much of the area Model Performance: overall "fair" calibration to daily streamflow, monthly average flows show best results

Watersheds and HSPF Models 12/19/201320

North Domain Model Expanded into St Johns River watershed 12/19/201321

Final Model Segmentation 12/19/201322

Watersheds in Northern Region

Hillsborough -Alafia- Tampa Watershed 12/19/201324

Crystal- Pithlachascotee and Withlacoochee Watersheds 12/19/201325

Oklawaha Watershed 12/19/201326

Extended Area Watersheds – Rice Creek, Etonia Creek, Lake George Area creeks, Wekiva River, and local drainage to St. Johns River 12/19/201327

Northern Region Calibration Results - Observed Annual Flows (inches) and Simulated Error Terms 12/19/ Annual Flow25% High Flow50% High Flow50% Low Flow25% Low Flow Site NameSite ID Obs (in) Rel Err (%) Obs (in) Rel Err (%) Obs (in) Obs (in) Rel Err (%) Obs (in) Rel Err (%) Obs (in) Hillsborough River Area Blackwater Ck nr Knights Hillsborough R nr Zephyrhills Hillsborough R at Morris Br Cypress Ck at Worthington Gardens low- Cypress Ck nr Sulphur Springs low- Sweetwater Ck nr Tampa Rocky Creek nr Sulphur Springs Brooker Ck nr Tarpon Springs low- Alafia River Area Bullfrog Creek nr Wimauma North Prong Alafia R at Keysville South Prong Alafia R nr Lithia Alafia R at Lithia Crystal-Pithlachascotee River Area Anclote R nr Elfers Pithlachascotee R nr New Port Richey Withlacoochee River Withlacoochee R nr Cumpressco low- Withlacoochee R at Trilby Little Withlacoochee R nr Tarrytown low- - Little Withlacoochee R at Rerdell low- Withlacoochee R at Croom Withlacoochee R nr Floral City Withlacoochee R nr Holder Waccasassa River Waccasassa R nr Gulf Hammock ( ) low- Oklawaha River Big Ck nr Clermont low- Palatlakaha R at Structure M low- Apopka-Beauclair Canal nr Astatula Haynes Ck at Lisbon Ocklawaha R at Moss Bluff Ocklawaha R nr Conner Ocklawaha R at Eureka Orange Ck at Orange Springs Ocklawaha R at Rodman Dam

Northern Region Calibration Results - Statistics of Daily and Monthly Flow Rates 12/19/ Site NameSite ID Daily FlowMonthly Flow Correl. Coeff. Coeff. of Deter. Mean Error (cfs) Mean Abs.Err. (cfs) RMS Error (cfs) Model Fit Effic. Correl. Coeff. Coeff. of Deter. Mean Error (cfs) Mean Abs.Err. (cfs) RMS Error (cfs) Model Fit Effic. Hillsborough River Area Blackwater Ck nr Knights Hillsborough R nr Zephyrhills Hillsborough R at Morris Br Cypress Ck at Worthington Gardens Cypress Ck nr Sulphur Springs Sweetwater Ck nr Tampa Rocky Creek nr Sulphur Springs Brooker Ck nr Tarpon Springs Alafia River Area Bullfrog Creek nr Wimauma North Prong Alafia R at Keysville South Prong Alafia R nr Lithia Alafia R at Lithia Crystal-Pithlachascotee River Area Anclote R nr Elfers Pithlachascotee R nr New Port Richey Withlacoochee River Withlacoochee R nr Cumpressco Withlacoochee R at Trilby Little Withlacoochee R nr Tarrytown Little Withlacoochee R at Rerdell Withlacoochee R at Croom Withlacoochee R nr Floral City Withlacoochee R nr Holder Waccasassa River Waccasassa R nr Gulf Hammock (99-06) Oklawaha River Big Ck nr Clermont Palatlakaha R at Structure M Apopka-Beauclair Canal nr Astatula Haynes Ck at Lisbon Ocklawaha R at Moss Bluff Ocklawaha R nr Conner Ocklawaha R at Eureka Orange Ck at Orange Springs Ocklawaha R at Rodman Dam

Examples Northern Watersheds

Withlacoochee River near Holder 12/19/  Add

Withlacoochee River near Holder 12/19/

Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge 12/19/

Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge 12/19/

Summary of Examples 12/19/  Both examples are good statistically except for low flows, which are too high in Hillsborough and too low in Withlacoochee  Withlacoochee Basin was difficult to calibrate due to large surface storage and groundwater contributions  Dry years are over-simulated and wet years are under-simulated, generally  NEXRAD rainfall appears to be low in early years and higher than gage rainfall in later years Simulated Steamflow Volume Errors Withlacoochee River - HolderHillsborough River - Morris Br. Obs. Flow (in)Error (%)Obs. Flow (in)Error (%) Total Annual Flow % High Flow % High Flow % Low Flow % Low Flow Statistical Measures Withlacoochee River - HolderHillsborough River - Morris Br. DailyMonthlyDailyMonthly Correlation Coefficient Coefficient of Determination Mean Error (cfs) Mean Abs. Error (cfs) RMS Error (cfs) Model Fit Efficiency (NS)

Watersheds in Southern Region

Manatee and Myakka-Sarasota Watersheds 12/19/201337

Peace-Charlotte Harbor Watershed 12/19/201338

Kissimmee Watershed 12/19/201339

Western Okeechobee and Caloosahatchee Watersheds 12/19/201340

Peace-Charlotte Harbor Watershed 12/19/201341

12/19/ Annual Flow25% High Flow50% High Flow50% Low Flow25% Low Flow Site NameSite ID Obs (in) Rel Err (%) Obs (in) Rel Err (%) Obs (in) Rel Err (%) Obs (in) Rel Err (%) Obs (in) Rel Err (%) Manatee River Area Little Manatee R nr Ft. Lonesome S F Little Manatee R nr Wimauma ( ) Little Manatee R nr Wimauma Manatee R near Myakka Head Gamble Creek near Parrish ( ) Braden R at Lakewood Ranch nr Lorraine Ward Lake nr Bradenton low- Myakka River & Sarasota Area Myakka R at Myakka City Myakka R nr Sarasota Big Slough Canal nr Myakka City Big Slough at Tropicaire Blvd ( ) Walker Ck nr Sarasota Peace River & Charlotte Harbor Peace Ck Drainage Canal nr Wahneta Saddle Ck at St. Hwy 542 nr Lakeland Peace R at Bartow Peace R at Fort Meade Bowlegs Ck nr Fort Meade Peace R at Zolfo Springs Charlie Ck nr Gardner Peace R at Arcadia Horse Ck nr Arcadia Shell Ck nr Punta Gorda Kissimmee River Shingle Ck at Airport nr Kissimmee Reedy Ck nr Vineland Catfish Ck nr Lake Wales Boggy Ck nr Taft Tiger Ck nr Babson Park Livingston Ck nr Frostproof Carter Ck nr Sebring Arbuckle Ck nr De Soto City Josephine Ck nr De Soto City Western Okeechobee Fisheating Ck at Palmdale Fisheating Ck at Lakeport Caloosahatchee River Caloosahatchee R at S-79, nr. Olga Whiskey Ck at Ft. Myers Southern Region Calibration Results - Observed Annual Flows (inches) and Simulated Error Terms

Southern Region Calibration Results - Statistics of Daily and Monthly Flow Rates 12/19/ Site NameSite ID Daily FlowMonthly Flow Correl. Coeff. Coeff. of Deter. Mean Error (cfs) Mean Abs.Err. (cfs) RMS Error (cfs) Model Fit Effic. Correl. Coeff. Coeff. of Deter. Mean Error (cfs) Mean Abs.Err. (cfs) RMS Error (cfs) Model Fit Effic. Manatee River Area Little Manatee R nr Ft. Lonesome S F Little Manatee R nr Wimauma Little Manatee R nr Wimauma Manatee R near Myakka Head Gamble Creek near Parrish ( ) Braden R at Lakewood Ranch nr Lorraine Ward Lake nr Bradenton Myakka River & Sarasota Area Myakka R at Myakka City Myakka R nr Sarasota Big Slough Canal nr Myakka City Big Slough at Tropicaire Blvd Walker Ck nr Sarasota Peace River & Charlotte Harbor Peace Ck Drainage Canal nr Wahneta Saddle Ck at St. Hwy 542 nr Lakeland Peace R at Bartow Peace R at Fort Meade Bowlegs Ck nr Fort Meade Peace R at Zolfo Springs Charlie Ck nr Gardner Peace R at Arcadia Horse Ck nr Arcadia Shell Ck nr Punta Gorda Kissimmee River Shingle Ck at Airport nr Kissimmee Reedy Ck nr Vineland Catfish Ck nr Lake Wales Boggy Ck nr Taft Tiger Ck nr Babson Park Livingston Ck nr Frostproof Carter Ck nr Sebring Arbuckle Ck nr De Soto City Josephine Ck nr De Soto City Western Okeechobee Fisheating Ck at Palmdale Fisheating Ck at Lakeport Caloosahatchee River Caloosahatchee R at S-79, nr. Olga Whiskey Ck at Ft. Myers

Examples Southern Watersheds

Peace River at Arcadia 12/19/201345

Peace River at Arcadia 12/19/

Braden River near Lorraine (Manatee) 12/19/201347

Braden River near Lorraine (Manatee) 12/19/201348

Summary of examples 12/19/  Peace River is good statistically except for low flows, especially in two dry years (2000 and 2006)  Braden River (Manatee tributary) was difficult to calibrate; possibly because watershed/reach storage is under estimated, since peaks are early  Braden River low flows are over-simulated Simulated Steamflow Volume Errors Peace River - ArcadiaBraden River - Lorraine Obs. Flow (in)ErrorObs. Flow (in)Error Total Annual Flow % % 25% High Flow % % 50% High Flow % % 50% Low Flow % % 25% Low Flow % % Statistical Measures Peace River - ArcadiaBraden River - Lorraine DailyMonthlyDailyMonthly Correlation Coefficient Coefficient of Determination Mean Error (cfs) Mean Absolute Error (cfs) RMS Error (cfs) Model Fit Efficiency (NS)

Sample – Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201350

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201351

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201352

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201353

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201354

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201355

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201356

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201357

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201358

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201359

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201360

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201361

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201362

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201363

Little Manatee River near Wimauma 12/19/201364

Other Calibration Metrics 12/19/  Water Balance  Target ET  Baseflow Separation

Water Balance (inches) Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge near Thonotosassa 12/19/ ComponentForest Grass/ Pasture Agri- culture/ Mining/ Other UrbanWetland Imper- vious Water Weighted Average Influx Rainfall Irrigation Overflow from Withlacoochee R Point Source Flow from Crystal Springs Runoff Surface Interflow Base flow Total GW Inflow Deep Active Evaporation Potential Interception Storage Upper Zone Lower Zone Ground Water Base flow Total Target

Area-Weighted Target ET (inches/year) and Simulated Errors for Selected Watersheds 12/19/ Site NameSite IDForest Error (%) Grass/ Pasture Error (%) Agric./ Irrigated Error (%) Mining/ Other Error (%) Urban Error (%) Wetland Error (%) Imperv Error (%) Hillsborough River Area Hillsborough R at Morris Br %32.912%41.00%42.0-7%35.33% % 15.9% Cypress Ck nr Sulphur Springs %31.913%42.5-6%42.0-9%35.20% % 15.7% Alafia River Area Bullfrog Creek nr Wimauma %32.13% % % %47.7-7% 15.11% Alafia R at Lithia %31.97% %42.0-5%36.0-8% % 15.7% Crystal-Pithlachascotee River Area Anclote R nr Elfers %32.6-4%41.78%42.016%36.35%48.318% 15.25% Withlacoochee River Withlacoochee R nr Cumpressco %32.910%44.31% %37.1-7% % 15.11% Little Withlacoochee R at Rerdell %33.613%42.64%42.0-9% % % 15.47% Withlacoochee R nr Holder %29.231%38.217%42.0-8%31.711% % 15.41% Waccasassa River Waccasassa R nr Gulf Hammock %26.543%43.51% %30.323%42.3-6% 15.10% Oklawaha River Big Ck nr Clermont %26.045% % %30.025%40.0-6% 15.33% Apopka-Beauclair Canal nr Astatula %26.037%40.5-5% %30.119% % 15.30% Haynes Ck at Lisbon %26.041%38.71% %30.022% % 15.28% Ocklawaha R nr Conner %26.145%40.2-3% %30.125% % 15.30% Orange Ck at Orange Springs %35.26%26.150% %30.127%40.6-7% 15.27% Manatee River Area Little Manatee R nr Wimauma %33.77%44.1-9% %37.6-4% % 15.14% Manatee R near Myakka Head %30.613% % %34.5-2%45.9-1% 15.17% Myakka River & Sarasota Area Myakka R nr Sarasota %30.819%43.8-5% %34.29% % 15.17% Peace River & Charlotte Harbor Saddle Ck at St. Hwy 542 nr Lakeland %32.716%40.219% %36.24% % 15.32% Bowlegs Ck nr Fort Meade %3122%44.80%n/a 35.36% % 15.27% Charlie Ck nr Gardner %29.922%42.82% %33.85% % 15.33% Peace R at Arcadia %30.521%43.90% %34.96% % 15.45% Horse Ck nr Arcadia %30.325%44.12% %34.111%45.5-5% 15.35% Kissimmee River Shingle Ck at Airport nr Kissimmee %30.02% % % % % 15.20% Catfish Ck nr Lake Wales %28.127% % %31.712%41.40% 15.32% Tiger Ck nr Babson Park %28.426% % %31.713%40.66% 15.33% Carter Ck nr Sebring %29.424%44-9%n/a 33.58%43.52% 15.47% Josephine Ck nr De Soto City %29.121% % %32.78%43.3-5% 15.33% Western Okeechobee Fisheating Ck at Lakeport %30.211% % %33.8-2% % 15.14% Caloosahatchee River Caloosahatchee R at S-79, nr. Olga % %45.0-1%42.011%37.0-2%47.515% 15.18%

Baseflow Separation - Mean Annual Baseflow (Observed vs. Simulated) for Selected Gages 12/19/ Site NameSite IDObservedSimulatedDifference Percent Difference Hillsborough R at Morris Br % Alafia R at Lithia % Withlacoochee R nr Holder % Little Manatee R nr Wimauma % Manatee R near Myakka Head % Myakka R nr Sarasota % Big Slough Canal nr Myakka City % Peace R at Bartow % Peace R at Arcadia %

Model Performance Summary 12/19/  Statistical measures of calibration indicate that many of the main river basins are fairly well calibrated at the outlets; correlation coefficients for daily flows at these gages range from 0.75 (Poor) for the Peace River to 0.91 (Good) for the Withlacoochee River, based on typical hydrology calibration criteria.  Average daily correlation coefficient at all gages:  The monthly flow correlation coefficients at the major gages are generally better, and are all above 0.90 (Good). Results at the smaller gages are variable, with some poor statistical comparisons and some good. Average:  Errors in total flow and 25%/50% high flows are small, and flow frequency comparisons are good at higher flows  Some of the calibration error is attributable to apparent errors in the principal hydrological input (rainfall). The NEXRAD rainfall dataset appears to be lower than gage-based rainfall in the earlier years of the model calibration period (WY ), and higher in the later years, specifically it is higher in , and lower prior to 2004  Low flow years are over-simulated and high flow years are under-simulated in many watersheds

HSPF: HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION PROGRAM - FORTRAN Continuous simulation model Natural and developed watersheds and water systems Land surface and subsurface hydrology and quality processes Stream/lake hydraulics and water quality processes Time series data management and storage Core watershed model in EPA BASINS Development and maintenance activities sponsored by U.S. EPA and U.S. Geological Survey

CONTINUOUS SIMULATION Represent hydrologic processes, storages, and pathways for a watershed, continuously for many days to multiple years, with time steps of one day or less, usually in the range of minutes to hours

72 of 32 RESULTS FROM CONTINUOUS SIMULATION Daily FlowFlow Duration/Frequency Storm Hydrographs

HSPF APPLICATION & UTILITY MODULES PERLND IMPLNDRCHRES Snow Hydraulics Water Conservative SedimentSolidsTemperature Quality Sediment PesticideNonconservative NitrogenBOD/DO PhosphorusNitrogen TracerPhosphorus Carbon Plankton BMP Flow Any constituent simulated in PERLND, IMPLND or RCHRES APPLICATION MODULES UTILITY MODULES COPY, MUTSIN, PLTGEN, DURANL, GENER, DISPLY, REPORT

HSPF - STRENGTHS Comprehensive representation of watershed land and stream processes Comprehensive representation of watershed pollutant sources, including nonpoint sources (by multiple land uses), point sources, atmospheric, etc. Flexibility and adaptability to a wide range of watershed conditions Well-designed code modularity and structure Companion database and support programs to assist model users (e.g., BASINS, WDMUtil, WinHSPF, GenScn, HSPEXP+) Development and support by U.S. EPA and USGS

HSPF - LIMITATIONS AND WEAKNESSES Extensive data requirements User training normally required Lack of comprehensive parameter guidance Large number of parameters Limited spatial definition (i.e., lumped parameter approach) Hydraulics limited to non-tidal freshwater systems and unidirectional flow Simplified representation of urban drainage systems

HSPF APPLICATION PROCESS Study definition Development of modeling strategy Learn how to use HSPF Development of time series data Parameter development Calibration/validation Analysis of alternate scenarios

HSPF HYDROLOGY  PROCESSES  PARAMETERS  CALIBRATION

78 of 35 THE HYDROLOGIC CYCLE

HYDROLOGIC COMPONENTS Hydrologic Components: Rainfall Interception Depression storage Evapotranspiration Infiltration Surface storage Runoff Interflow Groundwater flow Evapotranspiration Interceptio n Depression storage Ground surface Capillary rise Precipitation Infiltration Soil moisture Percolation Groundwater storage Underground flow into or out of the area Ground water flow Streamflow Interflow Surface runoff Channel pptn.

WATER BALANCE Water balance equation  R = P - ET - IG - Δ S where:P=Precipitation R=Runoff ET=Evapotranspiration IG=Deep/inactive groundwater Δ S=Change in soil storage Inter-relationships between components Variation of components with time consideration of soil condition, cover, antecedent conditions, land practices

STANFORD WATERSHED MODEL To Stream Actual ET Potential ET Precipitation Temperature Radiation Wind, Dewpoint Snowmelt Interception Storage Lower Zone Storage Groundwater Storage Interflow Upper Zone Storage Overland Flow Deep or Inactive Groundwater CEPSC* BASETP* AGWETP* DEEPFR* LZSN* INFILT* INTFW* UZSN* AGWRC* NSUR* SLSUR* LSUR* IRC* Delayed Infiltration Direct Infiltration PERC 1 ET LZETP* * Parameters Output Process Input Storage ET -Evapotranspiration n Order taken to meet ET demand Decision

PWATER PARAMETERS CEPSC - Interception storage capacity NSUR - Manning’s N for overland flow plane LSUR - Length of assumed overland flow plane SLSUR - Slope of assumed overland flow plane INFILT - Index to infiltration capacity of the soil UZSN - Upper zone nominal soil moisture storage LZSN - Lower zone nominal soil moisture storage LZETP - Lower zone ET parameter; index to density of deep-rooted vegetation

PWATER PARAMETERS INTFW - Interflow inflow parameter IRC - Interflow recession parameter (the ratio of interflow outflow rate today / rate yesterday) KVARY - Variable groundwater recession parameter AGWRC - Basic groundwater recession rate (when KVARY is 0) DEEPFR - Fraction of groundwater inflow which will enter deep (inactive) groundwater BASETP - Fraction of remaining potential ET which can be satisfied from baseflow AGWETP - Fraction of remaining potential ET which can be satisfied from active groundwater storage

PWATER PARAMETERS INTFW - Interflow inflow parameter IRC - Interflow recession parameter, i.e., the ratio of interflow outflow rate today / rate yesterday LZETP - Lower zone ET parameter; an index to the density of deep-rooted vegetation

 Mean runoff volume for simulation period (inches)  Annual and monthly runoff volume (inches)  Daily flow timeseries (cfs)  observed and simulated daily flow  scatter plots  Flow frequency (flow duration) curves (cfs)  Storm hydrographs, hourly or less, (cfs) CALIBRATION/VALIDATION COMPARISONS “Weight-of-Evidence” Approach

 Precipitation  Total Runoff (sum of following components)  Overland flow  Interflow  Baseflow  Total Actual Evapotranspiration (ET) (sum of components):  Interception ET  Upper Zone ET  Lower Zone ET  Baseflow ET  Active Groundwater ET  Deep Groundwater Recharge/Losses CALIBRATION/VALIDATION COMPARISONS Water Balance Components

Graphical Comparisons:  Timeseries plots of observed and simulated values for fluxes (e.g., flow) or state variables (e.g., stage, sediment concentration, biomass concentration)  Observed and simulated scatter plots, with 45 o linear regression line displayed, for fluxes or state variables  Cumulative frequency distributions of observed and simulated fluxes or state variable (e.g., flow duration curves) Statistical Tests:  Error statistics, e.g., mean error, absolute mean error, relative error, relative bias, standard error of estimate, etc.  Correlation tests, e.g., correlation coefficient, coefficient of model- fit efficiency, etc.  Cumulative Distribution tests, e.g., Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test CALIBRATION/VALIDATION COMPARISONS Graphical/Statistical Procedures & Tests

R & R 2 VALUE RANGES FOR MODEL PERFORMANCE Criteria PoorFairGoodVery Good PoorFairGoodVery Good R 2 Daily Flows Monthly Flows R

HYDROLOGIC (PWATER) CALIBRATION Annual Water Balance - Runoff = Prec. - Actual ET - Deep Perc. - Δ Storage Key Parameters:Repre. Precipitation (MFACT) LZSN LZETP INFILT DEEPFR Groundwater (Baseflow) Volume and Recession - Runoff = Surface Runoff + Interflow + Baseflow Key Parameters:INFILT AGWRC/KVARY DEEPFR BASETP/AGWETP Surface Runoff + Interflow (Hydrograph Shape) - Key Parameters:UZSN INTFW IRC LSUR, NSUR, SLSUR

IMPERVIOUS AREA - IWATER IWATER Simulate water budget for impervious land segment Simulate moisture retention Determine how much of the moisture supply runs off Evaporate from retention storage

IWATER CALIBRATION Impervious area process IWATER parameter Interception RETSC – retention storage Overland flow/runoff LSUR, NSUR, SLSUR Evaporation (no parameter, occurs at PET)

HSPF INTERFACES WinHSPF –Interactive interface to HSPF –Access to all HSPF Features –Scenario development WinHSPFLt –Interface to HSPF (batch) HSPEXP+ –Hydrologic calibration support

HSPF SUPPORTING PROGRAMS BASINS –Build/maintain WDM time series file and meteorologic data for HSPF and other models –Meteorologic data generation and fill-in –Graphical and tabular display of time series data –Etc. WDMUtil (becoming obsolete) –Build/maintain WDM time series file and meteorologic data for BASINS –Meteorologic data generation and fill-in –Graphical and tabular display of time series data GenScn (becoming obsolete) –Graphical and tabular display of time series data

FILES UTILIZED BY HSPF UCI (User’s Control Input) - contains all input except time series data Run Interpreter Output (ECH) - output summary of user’s input Operation Module Output - state variables and fluxes at user-selected intervals for PERLND/IMPLND/RCHRES WDM - time series data input and output (binary format) PLTGEN/MUTSIN/SEQ - Time series data input and output (text format) HSPF Binary Output - Operation module output in binary format Basin Specifications (EXS) - contains information for the HSPF hydrology calibration support program HSPEXP+

Recharge and ET Estimation

STANFORD WATERSHED MODEL To Stream Actual ET Potential ET Precipitation Temperature Radiation Wind,Dewpoint Snowmelt Interception Storage Lower Zone Storage Groundwater Storage Interflow Upper Zone Storage Overland Flow Deep or Inactive Groundwater CEPSC* BASETP* AGWETP* DEEPFR* LZSN* INFILT* INTFW* UZSN* AGWRC* NSUR* SLSUR* LSUR* IRC* Delayed Infiltration Direct Infiltration PERC 1 ET LZETP* * Parameters Output Process Input Storage ET -Evapotranspiration n Order taken to meet ET demand Decision ETVadose ETSat IGWI AGWI AGWET BASET 9612/19/2013

97 AGWI IGWIBASET AGWET

Infiltration, Effective Recharge and ET in MODFLOW I = AGWI + IGWI Vadose Zone R’ I ET Sat Groundwater I = Precip Eff - ET Vadose 9812/19/2013 ET sat = AGWET + BASET =

12/19/ Extinction Depth ET at depth d below ET surface ET Surface DEDE d ET From Groundwater ET Max

12/19/ BASINS 4.1 *_REC.WDM File Subbasin AGWI, IAGWI, AGWET, BASET Arc/MAP Shapefiles Landuse, Grid Grid AGWI, IAGWI, AGWET, BASET GW Model Files RCH, EVT

12/19/ BASINS 4.1 *_REC.WDM File Subbasin AGWI, IAGWI, AGWET, BASET Arc/MAP Shapefiles Landuse, Grid Grid AGWI, IAGWI, AGWET, BASET GW Model Files RCH, EVT

Processing 12/19/ Model_REC.WDM Text_Grid_Format.txt Subbasin AGWI, IAGWI, AGWET, BASET

Step 1: Open BASINS 12/19/

Step 2: Select File Type 12/19/ File>Open Data Select a File Type>WDM Time Series> OK

Step 3: Select File 12/19/ Select File> Open

Step 4: Open Data File 12/19/ Select by clicking on Filename Analysis>List File>Manage Data

Step 5: Select Data Sets 12/19/ Yes W A I T…………

Step 6: Select Data to List 12/19/ OK

Time Series List 12/19/

Adjust Formats 12/19/ Time Series List View> Date and Value Formats

Selected Formats 12/19/

Select Attributes to be Included 12/19/ Time Series List File>Select Attributes

Save Data File as a Text File 12/19/ File>Save Grid as Text

Save Data File 12/19/

Saving Data File 12/19/

12/19/ BASINS 4.1 *_REC.WDM File Subbasin AGWI, IAGWI, AGWET, BASET Arc/MAP Shapefiles Landuse, Grid Grid AGWI, IAGWI, AGWET, BASET GW Model Files RCH, EVT

Transfer of Arrays to Grid Cells using ArcMAP 12/19/  Area-Weighted Average of Infil and ET  Apply intersection of Polygons to determine contributions of respective units  Upscale from LU  SubBasin  Basin  Cell SUBASIN i in BASIN j SUBBASIN m in BASIN n LU1 LU2 GRID CELL BASIN n BASIN j

12/19/

Plots 12/19/  Annual 1995, 2000, 2004 (Net Recharge)  Annual 1995, 2000, 2004 (I 2)  Annual 1995, 2000, 2004 (ET 2)

1995 Net Infiltration

2000 Net Infiltration

2004 Net Infiltration

1995 Total Infiltration

2000 Total Infiltration

2004 Total Infiltration

1995 ET

2000 ET

2004 ET

NonNorthern District Model 12/19/

12/19/ Northern Basin Eastern Basin Central Basin

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12/19/ BASINS 4.1 *_REC.WDM File Subbasin AGWI, IAGWI, AGWET, BASET Arc/MAP Shapefiles Landuse, Grid Grid AGWI, IAGWI, AGWET, BASET GW Model Files RCH, EVT

Hands-on Session 12/19/  Install software  BASINS  HSPEXP+  Model files  Learn Concepts and How to Make Changes  Programs  Model files  Outputs generated  Make a run  WinHspfLt or HSPEXP+  Review Output  Graphs  Statistics and Errors  Water Balance and other Summaries

Install Software 12/19/  Download BASINS package   Change file extension to exe  Uninstall any previous versions of BASINS  Run the file as an administrator to install  Download HSPEXP+   Unzip the file and run setup.exe to install  Download Model files   Unzip the file  Copy the three separate directories (HAT, EXT, OKL) to the C:\BASINS41\modelout directory

Learn Concepts 12/19/  Watershed Model Files (XXX = three letter code for watershed)  XXX.uci – primary input file for watershed  Contains all parameters, option flags, land use, watershed connectivity, and instructions for reading input and writing output  Text file; column-specific inputs in all active lines; three * indicate a comment line  Experience with HSPF and access to User’s Manual are “necessary”  XXX.wdm – time series input and output data for watershed  Binary file; access/maintain with BASINS or WDMUtil  Multiple datasets  XXX_MET.wdm - WDM file containing meteorological time series input data for watershed  XXX_IRR.wdm – WDM file containing irrigation and surface water pumping data for watershed

Watershed Model Files (continued) 12/19/  XXX_REC.wdm – WDM file containing recharge-related output for watershed  XXX.exs – one or more “basin description” files for defining information used by the HSPEXP+ program to generate graphical and statistical output at specific “outlet” locations in the watershed  XXX.out – PERLND, IMPLND, RCHRES output summaries at user- defined intervals (text file)  XXX.hbn - PERLND, IMPLND, RCHRES output summaries at user- defined intervals (binary file) for use by post-processing programs  XXX.ech – output file; echo/summary of all info in the UCI file; contains error/warning messages

Programs (review from earlier) 12/19/  BASINS – display time series data graphically and listing; build/maintain WDM files and datasets; generate meteorological data; much more!  HSPEXP+ - runs simulation; generates statistical and graphical output at locations in watershed; provides hydrology calibration advice  WDMUtil – build/maintain WDM files and datasets; generate meteorological data  WinHspf – run HSPF models; edit UCI file; implement scenarios; set up output locations in model  WinHspfLt – run HSPF model (batch)

Outputs Generated by HSPF 12/19/  XXX.out – textfile summaries of state variables and fluxes at user- defined intervals for HSPF operations (PERLND, RCHRES, IMPLND)  XXX.hbn – binary file version of XXX.out (used by HSPEXP or BASINS to generate statistics and other outputs)  XXX.ech – echo of UCI file information; error/warning messages  XXX.wdm – HSPF writes timeseries output to the primary WDM file (flow rates and other information specific to subwatershed outlets)  XXX_REC.wdm – recharge-related timeseries output (AGWET, BASET, AGWI, IGWI)

Outputs Generated by HSPEXP+ 12/19/  Look in subdirectory with name:  Reports_  Hydrographs  Full period, Annual, Log, Monthly  Flow Duration graphs  Cumulative Flow graphs  Statistical Summaries - all are text files  DailyMonthlyFlowStats - *.txt  AnnualFlowStats - *.txt  MonthlyAverageFlowStats - *.txt  Expert System Statistics - *.sts  Expert System Calibration Advice - *.adv

Examples - graphs 12/19/

Examples – Daily Flow Stats 12/19/  RCH418: Daily  Simulated Observed  Count 4,110 4,110  Mean  Geometric Mean  Note: TS, Time Series  Correlation Coefficient  Coefficient of Determination  Mean Error  Mean Absolute Error  RMS Error  Model Fit Efficiency  Table 1  TS 1 - EXT RCH418 SIMQ  TS 2 - WEKIVA RIVER NEAR SANFORD, FL

Examples – Expert System Statistics 12/19/  Expert System Statistics for EXT.uci  Simulation Period: 3 Water years from 2003/10/01 to 2006/09/30  Site: RCH507  Total (3 year run)  Observed Simulated Simulated Simulated  Total Runoff Total Runoff Surface Runoff Interflow  total (inches) =  10% high (inches) =  25% high (inches) =  50% high (inches) =  50% low (inches) =  25% low (inches) =  10% low (inches) =  storm volume (inches) =  average storm peak (cfs) =  baseflow recession rate =  summer volume (inches) =  winter volume (inches) =  summer storms (inches) =  winter storms (inches) =

Make a Model Run with WinHspfLt 12/19/  Open C:\Basins41\modelout\EXT directory  Browse to UCI file  Drag file to WinHspfLt icon on desktop  Alternatively, doubleclick WinHspfLt icon, browse to UCI file, and click Open

Make a Model Run with HSPEXP+ 12/19/  Start – Programs  Browse to HSPEXP+ and start the program  Use Browse button to browse to the UCI file; click Open  Toggle (√) the following 5 items:  Run WinHspfLt before calculating the statistics  Calculate Expert Statistics  Produce Land Use and watershed area reports  Produce standard monthly flow…graphs  Produce Water Balance reports  Enter the following numbers in the red-bordered box: 312,316,415,418,434,507,508 (these are outlet reach ID numbers where observed flow data are available)  Click Start

HSPEXP+ 12/19/

Create Time Series Graphs with BASINS 4.1  Open BASINS from Start Menu.

Go to File  Open Data  Select WDM Time Series  Click OK

Browse to Desired WDM Time Series  Click OK

View the Data File(s) opened by BASINS 4.1  The file is opened by BASINS 4.1 and you may view the file by going to File  Manage Data

Go to Analysis  Graph  From the Data Sources Window or BASINS 4.1 window.

Click No at the selection Window

Data Selection Window

Select Desired Locations and Constituents to see the matching data  You can view more attributes of Data by Clicking on Attributes  Add and then selecting the desired attributes.

Select Desired Matching Data by Clicking on it. Selected Data shows up on Selection Pane near bottom

Verify the Time Periods, Time Step; Change if Needed, and Click OK.

Select the Types of Graphs Desired and Click Generate

Selected Graphs are Produced

Edit  Graph  This window can be used to edit colors, scale, legend, font, add lines etc.

On Scatter Plot go to Edit  Graph  Lines

Click on Add with Equation Y (second Add Button) to get a Y=X line  Edit the label and color of the new line.  Click on Apply.

Make a model run to see the effects of parameter changes 12/19/  EXT model  Adjust parameters for the PERLNDs that contribute to RCHRES 415 (Little Wekiva River)  RCHRES 415 represents SJRWMD gage at Springs Landing  Increase INFILT (PWAT-PARM2 table) to try to reduce the peak flows; make use of comments in UCI file to locate the PERLNDs that contribute to RCHRES 415  Save modified UCI file and then run the model and generate outputs using HSPEXP+  Compare hydrographs, duration plot, cumulative flow graph, and expert statistics for RCHRES 415 for the original run and your new run  See next slide for instructions

Run HSPEXP+ 12/19/  Make changes to UCI file with a text editor  Save file  Start HSPEXP+  Browse to EXT.uci  Check the boxes shown in the figure  Enter 415 in the red box  Click Start  Review/compare results for the two runs