Constitutional Reform in Hong Kong ROUND THREE HONG KONG TRANSITION PROJECT June 2013

Survey Objectives: Establish baselines before next round on: – Views on current governance system – Public opinion on reform options – Views by party, identity, interests (occupation, ownership) and demographics (age, sex, education, income, etc) Part of Hong Kong Transition Project’s long term study of public policy and political development since 1982

January permanent residents randomly contacted by telephone – +/- 3 points range of error at 95% confidence interval Research conducted by Hong Kong Transition Project, supported by a grant from the Community Development Initiative

3 FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS→ from circumstances of Rounds 1 (2005) & 2 (2010) Inter-generational Transfer Shift (1) – From Old > Young:Education/Healthcare – To Young> Old:Retirement/Geriatric care Identity Shift (2) as part of Generational Shift (3) – From Hong Kong person > Chinese/Chinese Hong Konger – From Chinese = Patriotic Communist > Chinese = National/Cultural Patriot 1 st Gen since 1841 to grow up in Hong Kong, China—with no effective memory of foreign rule

Generational Shift → 1 July 2013 marks 16 years from 1997 handover 1 July 2014 (Occupy Central deadline for “genuine democracy” reforms) = 17 years 2017 Chief Executive election = 20 years Few under age 30 remember pre-1997 circumstances as lived experience. It is “history” to them. Lived experience of this generation is: Bearing burden of the past, not enjoying its legacy nor believing in steady progress because they have seen it happen

SOURCE: Carine Lai, Louisa Mitchell, Michael DeGolyer, The Changing Faces of Hong Kong: “A Graphical Summary of Women’s Status, ” (Feb 2013) The Women’s Foundation/Civic Exchange exchange.org/wp/201302gen der_en/ p.17 By 2031, % of population over 60 will rise from 13% in 2011 to 26%+ exchange.org/wp/201302gen der_en/

Low birthrate, high aging rate crisis Shifting burden of care is burdening families in new ways New forms of stress/unequal forms of stress on families, caregivers and rising generation. No parents = no stress. No children = not enough help. High stress on fewer children. “Family friendly” policy does not recognize “family” is no longer parents with children; it is children with parents Intervening variable on satisfaction and fairness of policy making questions

Average Adjusted income for Ages 20-29, Census and By-census (1991, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011)

Approximately what percentage of your personal income do you contribute to your parents? BY Generation

Personal income to parents by Monthly Family Income

Effect of SHIFTS on IDENTITY

First Post-1997/Post-1841 Generation < 30 year olds were <13 in Too young to understand colonial Hong Kong. First time over 60s and under 30s equal in a survey

National Education Effect? “How would you describe yourself” by Occupation No student chose “Chinese” ID

Changes in identity

Birthplace Hong Kong for Hong Kong born, but means something different now

ID by Generation

Which of these do you consider the most important to you personally to see protected and promoted?

Most important to promote & protect BY Generation

How does the celebration of 1 st October National Day make you feel?

National Day feelings BY ID

Effect of SHIFTS on Political ID

Which parties protect/represent best by Age 60:40 pro- democracy/pro- establishment split among voters NOW is not sustained among teenagers

For the Establishment Demographics are running against the establishment parties Stalling reform does not improve their position Youth are stressed and highly volatile Demographics and economics are raising that stress and volatility UNLESS action is taken to address its sources

Satisfaction with performance of CY Leung by Generational group

How much do you believe CY Leung has:

How much do you believe Leung has: Protected HK’s interest in national matters BY Generation

How much do you believe Leung: Will implement a fair system of nomination and direct election for CE in 2017 BY Generation

How much do you trust Chief Executive Leung to handle relations with:

How much do you trust CE Leung to handle relations with: People like yourself BY Generation

How much do you trust CE Leung to handle relations with: People like yourself BY Parental support paid

Are you currently worried or not about these specific aspects affecting you, your family or Hong Kong? (Jan 2013)

In your view, what is the most urgent issue that should be addressed by the Chief Executive?

Effect of Shifts on Reform

System Reform... Is more than economics and elections Political-Economic reform must achieve: – Effective shareholder input, – More widely owned decisions, – Efficient implementation of decisions, – followed by scientific evaluation and independent monitoring, – subject to review and public feedback

Reform Principles & Options For more effective input Legitimating outcomes Effectuating implementation Monitoring governance

Support/oppose directly electing the Chief Executive (Trend chart)

Support/Oppose direct election of all Legco seats (10 Year Trend)

Summary Table of Recoded support or opposition on reform options

Would you support/oppose: Keep the CE Election Committee at 1200 members as present and make it the nominating committee for candidates for direct elections in 2017?

Would you support/oppose: Reform FCs by eliminating corporate voting and equalizing, as much as possible, the number of voters in each constituency?

Would you support/oppose: Abolish FCs for Legco but keep them for the CE Nominating Committee

Would you support/oppose the following: Abolish FCs completely in all forms?

Do you currently support or oppose: Abolishing all FCs, both traditional and new DC FC seats

Do you currently support or oppose: Abolishing only the traditional small circle 30 FC seats

Do you currently support/oppose: Replacing the 30 small circle FC seats with 30 more seats elected by everyone like the 5 new DC seats

Do you currently support/oppose: Abolishing the split voting system in Legco which requires majority votes in both the FCs and GCs for a bill or amendment to pass

If all FC seats are directly geographic elected, would you support or oppose: A minimum required percentage of votes to get a seat, of say, 10%, like in Germany?

Would you support/oppose: CE candidates be allowed to be members of a party?

Which party represents best by Support/oppose CE candidates allowed to be members of a party NO DIFFERENCE BY PARTY

Which party represents best by How much do you believe CY Leung: Will implement a fair system of nomination and direct election for CE in 2017

Which party represents best by Support direct election of Chief Executive

Which party represents best by Support direct election all Legco members

Which party represents best by Abolish FCs completely in all forms

Which party represents best by Abolish FCs for Legco, but keep for CE election

Which party represents best by Keep present 1200 member CE Election Committee as Nominating Committee, no change

Which party represents best by Do you think gov makes policies fairly

Fairness in policy making BY Generation

Fairness of policy making BY Work Sector

Research conducted by the Hong Kong Transition Project Details of methods and earlier reports available at: Hong Kong Transition Project Research since 1988 has been funded by RGC grants, grants from National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, Civic Exchange, The Women’s Foundation and many other local and international NGOs, and Community Development Foundation The Hong Kong Transition Project is a non-partisan, multi-disciplinary, multi-national academic research project committed to good governance and the highest standard public policy research