Toward a Sustainable Future Name of Conference, Event, or Audience Date Presenter’s Name www.synapse-energy.com | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

A Lower-Cost Option for Substantial CO 2 Emission Reductions Ron Edelstein Gas Technology Institute NARUC Meeting Washington DC February 2008.

Advertisements

1 © 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. The Power to Reduce CO 2 Emissions The Full Portfolio Energy Technology Assessment.

Prospective new EPA rules on existing source greenhouse gas emissions National Lieutenant Governors Association Oklahoma City, OK July 19, 2013 Eugene.

Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 Enhancement of Energy Efficiency Policies and Renewable Energy Sources in the Mediterranean region, a.

1 AEP Perspectives on Development and Commercialization of CCS Technology for Natural Gas Power Generation Matt Usher, P.E. Director – New Technology Development.

NARUC 2015 Winter Meeting February 16, 2015 Combined Heat and Power and the Clean Power Plan Bruce Hedman Institute for Industrial Productivity.

The Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of the Missouri Solar Rebate Erin Noble Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Advisor: Randy Kramer.

Renewable Energy and Natural Gas: from Crisis to Opportunity.

1 John J. Conti Acting Director Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Prepared for the Energy Technology System Analysis Program (ETSAP) Florence,

Emissions Due to Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Charging in High Wind Systems Allison Weis Roger Leuken Jeremy Michalek Paulina Jaramillo Carnegie Mellon.

1.  Purpose  To present Staff’s Preliminary Findings on the 2012 Integrated Resource Plans of:  APS – Arizona Public Service Company  TEP – Tucson.

Regional Emission-free Technology Implementation (RETI): Diversifying the U.S. Electricity Portfolio Marc Santos 2008 ASME WISE Intern University of Massachusetts.

FIFTH ANNUAL FEDERAL ENERGY WORKSHOP & DEFENSE ENERGY PARTNERSHIP FORUM | PAGE 2 Bruce Hedman, Institute for Industrial Productivity September 16, 2014.

Potential Impacts of an Advanced Energy Portfolio Standard in Pennsylvania Ryan Pletka, P.E. Black & Veatch April 12, 2004 Supported by: Heinz Endowments.

Achieving a sustainable energy balance for the U.S. current energy mix - 80% fossil fuel increasing renewables (wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, etc) increasing.

ERCOT PUBLIC 2/14/ LTSA Scenario and Data Assumptions February 14, 2014.

China Thermal Power Efficiency Project WB support to the improvement of coal-fired power generation efficiency in China Jie Tang Energy Specialist East.

CHEAPER AND CLEANER: Using the Clean Air Act to Sharply Reduce Carbon Pollution from Existing Power Plants, Delivering Health, Environmental and Economic.

Business of Energy - Fall Quarter. Seminar Schedule Introduction A Few Opening Questions… Presentation Today’s Schedule.

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook: Key Strategic Challenges Maria Argiri Economic Analysis Division.

April 23, 2013 NATIONAL COAL CONFERENCE Chairman Robert F. Powelson Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission.

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future * NREL July 5, 2011 Tradeoffs and Synergies between CSP and PV at High Grid Penetration.

WORKSHOP ON TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS FORWARD FOR CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE ON NATURAL GAS POWER SYSTEMS April 22, 2014 Revis W. James Director, Generation R&D.

Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division International Energy Agency / OECD WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK.

1 EIA’s Electricity Forecasting for the U.S. and the South By: Marilyn Brown, Matt Cox, Alex Smith, and Xiaojing Sun Georgia Institute of Technology July.

VINCE GRIFFIN VICE PRESIDENT ENVIRONMENTAL & ENERGY POLICY INDIANA CHAMBER OF COMMERCE.

Electric Generation Reliability Remarks Before the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission 2011 Summer Reliability Assessment Meeting June.

Can CCS Help Protect the Climate?. Key Points Climate Protection requires a budget limit on cumulative GHG emissions. Efficiency, Renewable Electric,

1 Status of and Outlook for Coal Supply and Demand in the U.S. Imagine West Virginia Spring 2010 Board of Governors Meeting April 13, 2010 Scott Sitzer.

Opting for “Long Term Operations” Technical, economic and regulatory considerations MARC Conference June 8, 2010 Sean Bushart, EPRI Sr. Program Manager.

LONG TERM ELECTRICAL SUPPLY PLAN STAFF RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS, ISSUES, AND RECOMMENDATIONS MADE IN NOVEMBER 2004 Presentation to the Gainesville City Commission.

TA Project: “Improving Emissions Control” Session 2 Scenarios for Emissions Management Dr Russell C Frost Project Team Leader.

Highlights of AESC 2011 Report Vermont Presentation August 22, | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved.

Jenell Katheiser Doug Murray Long Term Study Scenarios and Generation Expansion Update January 22, 2013.

Energy Information Administration Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Energy Information Administration December.

US Climate Partnership Association June 24, 2010 Revis James Director Energy Technology Assessment Center Creating a Low-Carbon Future EPRI’s 2009 Prism-

Investing in America’s Electric Future Morry Markowitz Group Director, External Affairs New Mexico Utility Shareholders Alliance October 7, 2009.

Discussion of Resource Plans Michael Schilmoeller for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council Wednesday, June 10, 2009.

COMMUNITY CHOICE AGGREGATION: TECHNICAL STUDY RESULTS Peninsula Clean Energy September 24,2015.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Slide 1 Accelerating Energy Efficiency To Reduce the PNW Power System's Carbon Footprint Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation.

World Energy Outlook 2006 Scenarios for the World and the European Union Presentation to European Wind Energy Conference Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007.

The Outlook for Electricity Supply and Demand to 2035: Key Drivers

Revis James Director Energy Technology Assessment Center 2010 AABE Conference May 20, 2010 Creating a Low-Carbon Future EPRI’s 2009 Prism- MERGE Study.

WORLD ENERGY PICTURE. Figure 1 World Energy Consumption Projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, despite world oil prices that are.

April 19, 2004 International Energy Outlook 2004 Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Thirty-First Annual International Energy Conference.

Interaction of a GHG Emissions Cap With Energy Technologies and Markets USAEE Annual Conference – Washington DC October 11, 2011 Donald Hanson and David.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Natural Gas Markets: Recent Changes and Key Drivers for LDC Gas Forum.

The Power to Reduce CO 2 Emissions The Full Portfolio National Association of Utility Regulatory Commissioners Winter Committee Meetings Committee on Electricity.

Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies December 14, 2009 Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator.

Kevin Hanson Doug Murray Jenell Katheiser Long Term Study Scenarios and Generation Expansion Update April, 2012.

Energy Efficiency Potential in the Wisconsin Industrial Sector A Discussion With the Wisconsin Industrial Energy Group November 6, 2008.

1 Public Power Looking to Participate in New Coal Generation Public power communities are very concerned about affordable electricity and –Coal is the.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Key Drivers Affecting the Outlook for Renewables For US Power & Renewable.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Overview of Draft Sixth Power Plan Council Meeting Whitefish, MT June 9-11, 2009.

2015 Mace Advocacy alliance policy conference

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Annual Energy Outlook 2015 United States Energy Association USEA Executive.

The Future Electricity Fuels Mix: Key Drivers

Economic Assessment of Implementing the 10/20 Goals and Energy Efficiency Recommendations – Preliminary Results Prepared for : WRAP, AP2 Forum Prepared.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Outlook for coal and electricity for National Coal Council November.

Long Term Study Resource Expansion Process: Study Findings and Lessons Learned Jenell Katheiser Doug Murray RPG May 21, 2013.

WEST VIRGINIA DIVISION OF ENERGY. West Virginia Coal Association Mining Symposium January 28, 2016.

1 Canadian Clean Power Coalition: Delivering Results for Over a Decade 3) Fuel Cell Repowering Results.

© OECD/IEA Do we have the technology to secure energy supply and CO 2 neutrality? Insights from Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 Copenhagen,

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Nick Jones – Corporate Strategic Planning May 30, 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual.

1 Glen Sweetnam Energy Information Administration Houston, Texas November 16, 2007 Outlook for North American Natural Gas Demand.

World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030

Pan-Canadian Wind Integration Study (PCWIS) Prepared by: GE Energy Consulting, Vaisala , EnerNex, Electranix, Knight Piésold Olga Kucherenko.

The Cost of Excessive Regulation in the Coal Industry

Anna Garcia Air Innovations Conference August 2004

Presentation transcript:

Toward a Sustainable Future Name of Conference, Event, or Audience Date Presenter’s Name | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved.

2 Overview Study funded by the Civil Society Institute and performed by Synapse Energy Economics Focuses on the U.S. electricity sector Compares a “business as usual” future to a scenario in which all coal-fired plants and nearly a quarter of the nation’s nuclear plants are retired by Reliance on energy efficiency and renewable resources is increased, while natural gas use is lower than under business as usual.

Methodology Business as Usual (BAU) scenario based on the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) 2011 Annual Energy Outlook (AE0) A transition to energy efficiency and renewable energy is compared to BAU The Transition Scenario relies on technologies that are commercial today Cost assumptions based on the AEO and a broad review of the literature Analysis assumes implementation of newly proposed EPA regulations Analysis performed on a regional basis (using 10 regions) | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 3

Electricity Generation | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 4 Electricity use grows by 0.9% annually under BAU. Use falls an average of 0.1% per year in the Transition Scenario due to enhanced energy efficiency nationwide. Efficiency assumptions based on current best practices.

The Generating Fuel Mixes | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 5

Generating Capacity in 2050 in the Transition Scenario | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 6 Without coal (and with less nuclear) regional power systems are more flexible. Gas-fired combined-cycle combustion turbines (CCCTs) and combustion turbines (CTs) help to integrate variable generation.

Mercury Emissions in the Two Scenarios | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 7

SO2 Emissions in the Two Scenarios | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 8

Nox Emissions in the Two Scenarios | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 9

CO 2 emissions in the Two Scenarios | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 10 Electric sector CO 2 emissions rise 28% under BAU. They fall 81% in the Transition Scenario.

Water Impacts in the Two Scenarios | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 11 Water Consumption at Power Plants Water Withdrawals at Power Plants Water withdrawals fall dramatically in both scenarios due to cooling system retrofits assumed under BAU. Water consumption rises under BAU due to retrofits (more water is lost in evaporative cooling), but it falls significantly in the Transition.

Electric Sector Natural Gas Use | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 12 Natural gas use is lower than BAU in all years of the study period. In 2050, gas use is below BAU by 3.7 quadrillion Btu per year, or 28%.

Cost analysis | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 13 Net Annual Costs (billion 2010$) The Transition Scenario costs less through most of the study period. The net present value (NPV) of the 40-year stream is a savings of $83 billion, discounted at 4.8%. Savings are small relative to total industry costs.

Key drivers of cost findings Under BAU: New nuclear energy is expensive (assumed to be 14.5 ¢/kilowatt hour (kWh)). New coal plants are costly too (10.5 ¢/kWh using AEO assumption) As a comparison, energy efficiency is estimated between to be 4.7¢/kWh and onshore wind 7.4 to 9.3 ¢/kWh. Energy from existing coal becomes more costly as well, due to higher coal prices and environmental control retrofit costs. | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 14

Key drivers of cost findings (cont.) The Transition Scenario: Captures cost-effective efficiency opportunities. Relies on lower cost renewable resources first (e.g wind), solar photovoltaic (PV) technology later, after costs have come down. With the retirement of significant coal-fired capacity, the utilization of remaining coal units increases, reducing their cost per kWh. The $83 billion in savings realized in the Transition Scenario does not include direct subsidies, the costs of carbon capture and sequestration, or savings from reduced impacts on public health. | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 15

Other benefits Over $100 billion in environmental retrofit costs is avoided by retiring coal plants. Avoided health costs are roughly $450 billion equivalent to over 55,000 fewer premature deaths. (However, these savings are not included in the cost/savings analysis of the Transition Scenario.) 3.1 million new job-years (over 300,000 jobs) created in building and operating efficiency and renewable energy plants between 2011 and Broader economic analysis is required to assess full employment impacts. | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 16

Other Benefits (cont.) Adequate reserve margins are sustained in each region of the country to maintain reliable electric service. Reducing reliance on baseload coal and nuclear plants frees up transmission capacity for more wind and solar resources. | ©2008 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 17