Disruptive Demographics and North Carolina’s Global Competitiveness Challenge January 2014 James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion

what January 2014 CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL

6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises – Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is “In” The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well… and Grandpa’s Too!

The South Continues To Rise The South Continues To Rise...Again!

SOUTH’S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, Years U.S. Absolute Population Change South’s Absolute Population Change South’s Share of Change ,974,129 8,468,30327% ,123,138 9,339,45533% ,886,12815,598,27930% ,497,94722,650,56350% ,035,66529,104,81449%

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, Region 2010 Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S.309,050,81626,884,9729.5% Northeast55,417,3111,753,9783.3% Midwest66,972,8872,480,9983.0% South114,555,74414,318, % West72,256,1838,774, % North Carolina9,535,4831,486, %

SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population ChangePercent of Total UNITED STATES26,884, NORTHEAST1,753, MIDWEST2,480, SOUTH14,318, WEST8,774,

NET MIGRATION TRENDS, NortheastMidwestSouthWest Total-1,032-2,008+2, Black Hispanic Elderly Foreign born = Net Import= Net Export

STATE SHARE OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, Region/StateAbsolute ChangeState’s Share The South14,318, % Texas 4,293, % Florida 2,818, % Georgia 1,501, % North Carolina 1,486, % Other Southern States 4,218, %

NC COUNTIES WITH THE LARGEST ABSOLUTE POPULATION GAINS,

NC COUNTIES EXPERIENCING POPULATION DECLINE,

Counties with Biologically Declining Populations, 2009

GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, The Region DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet ,125,0963,470,431654,665268,619132,382136, ,874,4143,477,899396,525232,501132,201100,300 Florida DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet ,053630,051182,00241,74524,10817, ,931668,087-13,15633,09532,0941,001

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, Region 2013 Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S.316,128,8396,802,5542.2% Northeast55,943,073566,7511.0% Midwest67,547,890571,5690.9% South118,383,4533,525,5543.1% West74,254,4232,138,6703.0% North Carolina9,848,060258,5272.7%

SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population ChangePercent of Total UNITED STATES6,802, NORTHEAST566, MIDWEST571, SOUTH3,525, WEST2,138,

STATE SHARES OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, Region/StateAbsolute ChangeState’s Share The South3,525, % Texas 1,203, % Florida736, % Georgia 278, % North Carolina 258, % Virginia235,9886.7% Other Southern States812, %

NC Biologically Declining Counties,

Net Importers and Exporters of Population,

THE “BROWNING” OF NORTH CAROLINA

U.S. Immigrant Population,

U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011 Race/EthnicityForeign PopulationShare of Total (%) Total40,381, Hispanic18,788, White Alone, not Hispanic 7,608, Black Alone, not Hispanic 3,130, Asian Alone, not Hispanic 9,988, Other Alone, not Hispanic 866,

NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND ETHNICITY,

NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US27,323, South14,318, Texas4,293, Florida2,818, Georgia1,501, NC1,486,

CONTRIBUTIONS OF NON-WHITES & HISPANICS TO NC POPULATION CHANGE, Area Absolute Population Change Percent Non- White* Percent Hispanic All Counties1,486, Tier 1 Counties69, Tier 2 Counties327, Tier 3 Counties1,088, Source: Census 2000 and Census *Non-whites include Blacks, Hispanics, American Indians and Alaskan Natives, Asians, Native Hawaiians & Pacific Islanders, and people of two or more races.

is “In” Marrying Out October

INTERMARRIAGE TREND, % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity October

INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008 October

OUT-MARRIAGE PATTERNS BY RACE AND GENDER, NC Hispanic Men21.4Hispanic Women21.6Black Men9.4Black Women3.4 White Female18.0White Male16.4White Female6.0White Male0.6 Black Female1.5Black Male3.7Hispanic Female1.4Hispanic Male1.9 Asian Female0.7Asian Male0.2Asian Female0.5Asian Male0.1 Other Female1.2Other Male1.3Other Female1.5Other Male0.9 White Men3.3White Women3.4Asian Men12.3Asian Women31.4 Hispanic Female1.1Hispanic Male1.2White Female10.0Hispanic Male1.5 Black Female0.3Black Male1.1Black Female0.6White Male25.8 Asian Female0.9Asian Male0.2Hispanic Female0.5Black Male2.7 Other Female1.0Other Male0.9Other Female1.2Other Male1.3

Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in North Carolina, Demographic Group All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Native Born Foreign Born Source: *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months. Median Age Fertility/1000 women*

RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White66%50%49.6% Blacks17%16%15.0% Hispanics15%26%26.0% Other2%8%9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

CHANGE IN THE RACE/ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF NC PUBLIC SCHOOLS, Group 2009 Enrollment 2000 Enrollment Absolute Change Percent Change Share of Net Change Total1,427,9601,268,422159, % AI/AN 20,378 18,651 1, % Black 444, ,712 51, % Asian 35,140 23,576 11, % Hispanic 152,605 56,232 96, % White 774, ,251- 1, Source: DPI, The Statistical Profile Online

NC’s SILVER TSUNAMI

Absolute and Percent Population Change by Age, Age All Ages <25 United States 27,323,632 (9.7%) 5,416,292 (5.4%) North Carolina 1,486,170 (18.5%) 449,385 (16.2%) ,905,697 (-3.4%) 19,536,809 (31.5%) 5,276,231 (15.1%) 73,209 (2.9%) 698,545 ( 38.6% ) 265,031 (27.3% )

U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, ( ) Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number/Day12,34411,5419,2218,032 Average Number/Minute October

DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE AMERICAN SOUTH Source: Census 2010

NC ABSOLUTE POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, AgeAll Counties Tier 3 Counties Tier 2 Counties Tier 1 Counties All Ages1,486,1701,088,946327,859 69,365 <25 449, ,818 85,481- 5, , , ,139-49, , ,705199,101 88, , ,175 79,416 36,440

Dependency Rates for North Carolina and Economic Development Tiers, Dependency Rate North Carolina 68.7 Tier Tier Tier

COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA’S WELL And Grandpa’s Too!

Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent Households, Household TypeAbsolute Number 2010 Absolute Change Percent Change All74,7182, No Grandparents67, Both Grandparents 2, Grandmother Only 1, Grandfather Only October

Children Living in Non-Grandparent and Grandparent-Headed Households by Presence of Parents, 2010 Household Type All Children (in thousands) Living with Both Parents Living with Mother Only Living with Father Only Living with Neither parent All74, %23.1%3.4%4.0% No Grandparents 67, %21.2%3.3%2.1% Both Grandparents 2, %40.6%5.2%36.1% Grandmother Only 1, %48.4%4.5%33.2% Grandfather Only %45.9%4.4%23.6% October

GRANDPARENTS LIVING WITH GRANDCHILDREN AGES 18 AND YOUNGER IN NORTH CAROLINA Percent Change Total Households with Grandparents 146,875175, Grandparents Responsible for Grandchildren 84,232109, Child's Parents in Household 43,67967,

The End of Men?

FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION

JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) – 2009 (Q3) RECESSION Industry WomenMen Construction -106,000-1,300,000 Manufacturing -106,000-1,900,000 Healthcare +451, ,100 Government +176, ,000 Total -1,700,000-4,700,000

THE PLIGHT OF MEN Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to Selective male withdrawal from labor market—rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.

COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREEMALEFEMALEDIFFERENCE Associate’s293,000486,000193,000 Bachelor’s702,000946,000244,000 Master’s257,000391,000134,000 Professional46,80046, Doctor’s31,50032,9001,400 TOTAL1,330,3001,902,300572,000

ENROLLMENT IN 2 YEAR COLLEGES, 2009 Area Total Enrollment Full Time Enrollment (%) Male Enrollment (%) Black Enrollment (%) U.S.20,966, Southeast Region 4,731, North Carolina 574, NC- 2 Yr Colleges 253,

UNC SYSTEM STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY GENDER AND TYPE OF INSTITUTION, 2010 Type of Institution Total Enrollment Male Enrollment Percent Male UNC System 175,28176,95344 Majority Serving 139,25063,40346 Minority Serving 36,03113,55038 HBUs 29,86511,19137

Average EOG Scores Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

Average EOG Scores Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

Average EOC Scores Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

EOC Composite Scores Gender scores are averages of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

Male-Female Presence Disparity Graph shows total number of male and female students tested of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Duplin, Halifax, Northampton, and Pamlico)

High School Graduation Rates Avg. graduation rates of 6 LEAs (Bertie, Bladen, Halifax, Duplin, Northampton and Pamlico)

The Minority Male Challenge

Third Grade EOG Reading Test Pass Rates For Males by Race/Ethnicity

Third Grade EOG Math Test Pass Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity

Eighth Grade EOG Reading Test Pass Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity

Eighth Grade EOG Math Test Pass Rates for Males by Race/Ethnicity

...but Challenges Abound DIVERSITY RULES September

September

Percent of High School Graduates Requiring Remedial Course Work

...but insufficient...but insufficient Education is Necessary

AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATION Education % Change Less Than High School24.7%23.7% High School Graduate40.6%34.3%-6.3 Some College20.7%24.4%3.7 Bachelor’s Degree or More 14.0%17.6%3.6

AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION Occupation % Change Blue Collar40.5%31.6%-8.9 Service Occupation14.3%16.7%2.4 White Collar38.5%44.4%5.9

THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED, 2009 PROFESSION % OF ALL JOBLESS WORKERS Architecture & Engineering41.2 Management39.0 Community & Social Services Occupations36.1 Installation, Maintenance & Repair Work34.9 Production Occupations33.4

BACHELOR’S DEGREE HOLDERS (UNDER AGE 25) WHO WERE JOBLESS OR UNDEREMPLOYED YearPercent

CHANGE IN INCIDENCE OF POVERTY BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN NC, , Educational Attainment Percent Change Less than High School 253,304276, % High School Graduate 216,667234, % Some College, Associate Degree 136,185186, % Bachelor’s degree or higher 49,082 57, % Source: American Community Survey

THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT Analytical Reasoning Entrepreneurial Acumen Contextual Intelligence Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity Agility and Flexibility

Implications for Workforce Planning and Development Managing transition from the “graying” to the “browning” of America. Competition for talent will be fierce – and global. Successful recruitment and retention will hinge on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of “diversity” issues. September

MOVING FORWARD Higher Education must become more actively engaged in K-12 Education. Improve Male Education Outcomes. Embrace immigrants. Develop effective strategies to address childhood hunger Establish stronger ties with business to ensure that students graduate with the requisite skills to compete in an ever-changing global economy. Prepare students for the freelance economy.