Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop WP 3.3.1 Future chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Set-up.

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Presentation transcript:

Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop WP Future chemical composition changes from different modes of transport Set-up of the runs for evaluating future impact

Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop Objectives: - estimate changes in future chemical composition from different modes of transport - provide input data of future chemical changes for impact studies Start date: month 8 (01 OCT 2005) End date: month 18 (31 AUG 2006)

Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop - use global scale CTMs -first-order studies of future chemical impact -target year O3, CH4, and particle distributions (sulfate, organic carbon aerosols) - use emission data for future changes provided by Activity 1 (SRES, EDGAR) - provide perturbed fields to WPs 6 and 7 - model simulations with improved future emission scenarios will start after month 18

Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop

Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop Deliverables: D : Report with first-order estimate of the future impact D : Database with chemical perturbation fields Total man months for each partner for the first 18 months: UiO: 12, KNMI: 14, ETHZ: 6, LSCE-CEA: 12, MPICHEM: 10, UCAM: 12, UCI: 8 Milestones and expected results: - Detailed description of model simulations to be performed (“month 10, 31 DEC 2005”) - Results from first simulations (“month 12, 28 FEB 2006”, suggest month 14, 30 APR 2006) (emissions available?) - Report with preliminary estimate of future impact (“month 15, 31 MAY 2006”, suggest month 18, 31 Aug 2006)

Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop Earlier experience: ACCENT IA3 model assessments Exp I: Ozone change and radiative forcing: 1850, 2000, 2100 –Lead: M. Gauss –10 modeling groups participate (both CCMs and CTMs) –Ozone changes are calculated globally for the troposphere and the lower stratosphere –Calculation of radiative forcing (G. Myhre, K. Shine, L. Gohar) Exp II: AQ-climate feedback: 2000, 2030 –Lead: F. Dententer, D. Stevenson, K. Ellingsen, H. Eskes –25 modeling groups participate (both CCMs and CTMs) –Atmospheric change in the troposphere on regional and global scales –Emphasis on the synergetic effect of air quality and climate gas emissions, on human health, and vegetation exposure –Calculation of radiative forcing

Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop

Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop Learning from our experience with OxComp (2001) and ACCENT IA3 (2005)

Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop Present runs: Differences among the models with respect to emissions? Future runs: SRES or IIASA (if available) scenarios? Changes in biomass burning? (probably still too uncertain) Use the same delta emission for all models? What about lightning emissions? Time slice simulations with repeated meteorology? Include climate change? (if yes, where to get the data from? SSTs?) Spin-up length? (focus on tropospheric/stratospheric issues) Integration length? How many simulations? I/O format (suggestion: netCDF). Very important: Every model group has to comply with format specifications!

Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop Model output: as in Aerocom / Accent / Quantify WP3.1? Basic philosophy: Better too much than too little output Ozone (mixing ratio) monthly means, daily means? Budgets! (tp flux, dry dep., chem. prod. and loss) CH4 lifetime (yr), ozone precursors? SO4 (mixing ratio), rel. humidity (fraction), 3-hourly? SO2 (mixing ratio)? Sulphate budget: SO2  dry dep., SO4, etc. (kg/month) H2O2, OH? BC/OC (g/m3), output frequency? Others? Species in red are mandatory

Michael Gauss, UiODe Bilt, 8-9 November 2005Quantify A3 workshop Suggested site for data upload: - password protected - more secure than ftp - upload possible either through web interface or shell commands -after some childhood diseases we’ve had positive experience within ACCENT UiO to send out detailed experimental setup before end of December 2005