The Activities of Tokyo Climate Center Fumio WATANABE Tokyo Climate Center Climate Prediction Division, JMA

Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Mission : To assist Climate Services of NMHSs in the Asia-Pacific region with the aim of Mitigating climate-related disasters and Contributing to the sustainable development in the region Establishment : April 2002

The Activities of TCC 1.Significance of Climate Information and Necessity of effective Application 2.Backgrounds of TCC’s Establishment Framework proposed by WMO for Advanced Climate Service Long-range Forecasting Service in JMA 3.Tasks of TCC 4.Data and Products available from TCC 5.About this Workshop 6.Concluding Remarks

Climate Information “Climate” is average weather condition. “Normal Climate” “Climate” has fluctuation around “Normal Climate”. “Climate Variability” “Climate” shifts to other state of “Climate”. “Climate Change”

Growing Awareness of Significance of Climate Information Extreme Climate Events Need for Climate Monitoring, Diagnosis, and Prediction Climate-related Disasters large fluctuation from Normal Climate Climate Information Globalization of Socio-economic activities Damages by Disasters Vulnerability Coping with disasters

Typical Climate Phenomena and associated Disasters in the Asia-Pacific Region Winter Monsoon ENSO Subtropical-High Baiu-Front Asian Summer Monsoon Drought & Flood Heavy Snow Heat Wave Cold Wave Drought & Flood Drought & Flood Flood by Snow-melting

El Niño Events as Triggers to Development of Climate Issues /83 El Niño the second largest event in the 20 th century Progress of scientific studies on ENSO Development of tropical ocean observing system /98 El Niño the largest event in the 20 th century Awareness of Significance of ENSO information and Necessity of its effective application Understanding of ENSO, Development of ENSO prediction model Liaison between Science Community and Disaster Management Sector IDNDR of United Nations

United Nations Initiative IDNDR : (International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction) ISDR : (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction) Inter-agency Task Force on El Niño (1997) Inter-agency Task Force on Disaster Reduction WG1 on Climate and Disasters (chaired by WMO) El Niño Update (WMO since 2001) WG2 on Early Warning WG3 on Risk, Vulnerability & Disaster Impact Assessment WG4 on Wild land Fires

Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) WWW Global Observing System (GOS) Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) Integrated Global Observing Strategy Surface Fresh water Land Ocean Atmosphere Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) USERCOMMUNITIESUSERCOMMUNITIES Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) Climate Information Requirements Climate Data Requirements Detection of Climate Change Projection of the Global Warming Climate Research Seasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction Monitoring the State of the Climate System ObservationInformationApplication

Three motivating Backgrounds 1. Growing Awareness of Significance of Climate Information and Necessity of its Effective Application 2. Increasing Recognition of Necessity of International Cooperation Framework planned by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 3. Technical Development which makes Advanced Climate Services possible

Global SI Products Operational Preparation Provision Verification Improvement Framework proposed by WMO for Advanced Climate Service Users ・ Operational activities Tailored Products ・ Data services ・ Capacity building activities ・ Research and Development ・ Coordination functions Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) Global Producing Centres (GPCs) Technical Assistance Products Data, Feedback NMHSs Climate Information

Long-range Forecasting Service in JMA Period I Start of long-range forecasting service in 1940’s Statistical Methods Period II ( 1980’s ) Introduction of Systematic Monitoring and Diagnosis of the Global Climate System Period III ( from 1990’s ) Introduction of Dynamical Prediction Model

Importance of monitoring and diagnosis of the global climate system for long-range forecast Convection near the Philippines intensifies Subtropical High over Japan in mid-summer. El Niño and La Niña events in 1980’s Period II ( 1980’s ) in JMA

Development of Dynamical Climate Prediction at JMA One-month forecast El Niño Outlook Three-month forecast Cold season forecast Warm season forecast Period III ( from 1990’s)

Integrated Climate Information Production System at JMA Dynamical Climate Prediction System El Niño prediction system ensemble prediction system Future Prediction D/A System Database / Reanalysis System Observations Present Monitoring Past CDAS ODAS Analysis

Monitoring of Global Climate System Global Dynamical Prediction Monitoring of Extreme Events NMHSs in the Asia- Pacific NMHSs in the Asia- Pacific Climate Data Feedback Capacity Building Activities Preparation and Provision of Basic Climate Information ENSO Outlook Technical Assistance Tasks of TCC/JMA Promotion of Application of Climate Information

1. Global Climate and Extreme Climate Events global temperature anomalies, global precipitation ratios, etc. 2. Monitoring Report on the Global Climate System atmospheric circulation, convection, lower boundary conditions, oceanographic conditions, Asian Monsoon monitoring, stratospheric circulation monitoring, etc. 3. Current Diagnosis Report and Outlook for ENSO ENSO monitoring products and indices, El Nino outlook, etc. 4. One-month and Three-month Ensemble Prediction prediction maps and verification charts, global GPVs Data and Products available from TCC’s Web Site

Global GPVs Grids are spaced per 2.5-degree in lat. and in lon. One-month forecast Ensemble mean of 26 members averaged for 7-day Three-month forecast Ensemble mean of 31 members averaged for a month and three months Warm and Cold season forecast Ensemble mean of 31 members averaged for three months Grid point value products (available at TCC Web Site, required ID & password)

Home of the TCC’s Web Site

Monitoring of Extreme Climate Events, October 2003 Example of Products on the TCC’s Web Site

Asian Monsoon Monitoring Example of Products on the TCC’s Web Site

One-month and Three-Month Prediction Products

1. There is Growing Awareness of significance of climate information to cope with climate-related disasters. Effective Application should be enhanced but based on correct understanding of uncertainty of the information. 2. JMA develops and improves the Integrated Climate Information Production System (ICIRS). Conclusion 3. NMHSs should prepare and deliver climate information. International Cooperation Framework should assist NMHSs. TCC contributes to such a Framework. 4. TCC improves and increases basic climate data and products available from the TCC Web Site. TCC will continue to hold workshops and Training Courses as capacity building activities.