Presentation on theme: "Climate Applications & Services"— Presentation transcript:
1 Climate Applications & Services World Climate Applications & Services DivisionClimate Prediction & Adaptation BranchClimate & Water Department
2 Towards Improved Societal Response and Sustainable Development Relevant climate information is expected to improve policy and decision-makingClimate dataClimate analysis and monitoring capabilitiesUser-targeted climate prediction/information productsClimate risk modelling tools – Critical for decision makingThere is significant diversity in demand and supply of climate information at national levelNeeds and requirements of the users related to policy and decision-makingNeeds, requirements and capabilities of providers
3 WCASP Objectives Development of user-targeted climate services Services for sustainable development at national, regional and global levelsContribute to strategies for adapting to, and mitigating, the adverse impacts of climate and its variationsIncreased user awareness and liaisonPartnership with national/international agencies dealing with application sectorsDevelopment of practical methods and techniques including climate prediction productsImplementation through CLIPS Project
4 New developmental needs and associated Climate service needs have emerged Climate can be viewed as a risk and also as a resource;Assessment of Climate Change and Variability with a regional focus;Identification of key vulnerabilities (impact databases, current and future frequency of extremes, …);Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (SIP) and regional climate outlooks;Future climate scenarios;Downscaling of SIP and climate scenarios;Climate-related risk management:Applications of climate products in decision-making;Interpretation and use of probabilistic products;Climate derivative products.A high level of interdisciplinary knowledge is required for the development of climate products including assessment of uncertainties
5 Value of Climate Information and Services to Society the nature of the dependence of socio-economic activities on climatic factorsreliability of climate products including awareness of the associated uncertainties and their implications to decision-makingaccessibility of credible and useful climate information for decision makingliaison between users and climate information providersthe ability of users to act on the basis of climate information
6 Climate ServicesThe term “climate services” refers to the delivery of climate information and predictions from the scientific sources to end-usersA service is a service only when it is used; our goal is to make people use climate services in real-world contextClimate information is just one of the elements in the decision making matrixDatabases of information gathered over many years; NMHSs have great potential to exploit these resources to provide “effective” climate servicesPredictions of climate variability over the next season or two (seasonal to interannual forecasts) are of immediate relevance
7 The Espoo ConferenceReviewed opportunities and constraints in integrating climate risks and uncertainties into the mainstreams of decision-making where sensitivity to climate variability and change is but one among many factors to consider.The focus was on risk assessment and decision-processes in real-world contexts, includingagriculture and food securitywater resource managementhuman health and disease controlenergy and built environmentdisaster preparedness and early warning systems
8 Climate-related Risk Management Works best if it is:driven by the needs and requirements expressed by relevant decision sectorsdeveloped within real-world decision contextsenabled through facilitating institutions and policiesbased on environmental, sectoral and socioeconomic databased on tailored climate informationsupported by local capacityincluded in planning strategies that incorporate incentivessupported by sector-specific services from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and related institutions.Extracted from Espoo Statement
9 Heat Waves and Health Warning Systems Reduce mortality and morbidity associated with life-threatening heatwavesStrengthen WMO/NMHS partnerships with health and social services (global, regional, national) for effective service delivery – Met forecasts alone are insufficientDevelop Guidance on and tools for:early warning and detection of health effects of extreme weather/ heat-waves;national/local preparedness planning for extreme heat events;public/media outreach;interventions to save lives.Guidelines on HHWS are being developed jointly by WMO and WHO, with input from IFRC, health research groups and other agencies
10 Climate and EnergyPromote use of climate data and services to support design, construction, planning and operation of their energy systems (renewable and traditional), with the associated benefits in efficiency, cost reduction, and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.New Technical Note under development by CCl on ‘Weather and Climate Aspects of Renewable Energy: Solar and Wind’.
11 Climate Variability and Change: Issues for Tourism Climate has a high priority in the choice of tourist destinationsClimate hazards threaten the infrastructure, the people, the financial networks and the ecosystems that underpin the success of the sectorPossible increase in climate-related risks associated with climate change is a matter of concern to the sectorIdentifying windows of opportunity can contribute to growth of the sector and help optimize the use of climate as a resourceTourism has potential impacts on climate, biodiversity, pollution, water resources which need to be understood to plan its sustainable growth
12 Urban and Building Climatology New Technical Notes on Building Climatology and Urban Climatology under development by CCl Expert TeamApproach to developing building climatology:Stage 1: Produce a basic regional climatologyStage 2: Produce a local urban climatologyStage 3: Provide micro climatic adviceUrban climatology and its relevance to urban design
13 CCl OPAG on CLIPS Research Needs Guides to Best Practices OperationsVerificationUser LiaisonENSO Communication
14 Global Producing Centres of LRF In 2006, nine centres making global seasonal forecasts were designated as WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs)GPCs adhere to defined standards – aiding consistency and usability of output:a fixed forecast production cyclea standard set of forecast productsWMO-defined verification standards (for retrospective forecasts)GPCs designated: Beijing, ECMWF, Exeter, Melbourne, Montreal, Moscow (pending), Seoul, Tokyo, Toulouse, WashingtonAccess to all GPCs can be found through WMO page:A comprehensive set of standard verification measures, with which to communicate the skill of forecasts, has been defined (the WMO Standard Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts – SVSLRF)
15 Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCCs will be Centres of Excellence, designated by CBS and CCl, to perform regional-scale climate functions, including:Operational LRF and Climate MonitoringCoordination between RCCs, GPCs and NMHSs in the regionData servicesClimate ApplicationsTraining and capacity buildingResearch and DevelopmentRCCs will be complementary to and supportive of NMHSs, which will deliver all Warnings and national-scale productsEstablishment of RCCs will be initiated by Regional Associations, based on regional needs and prioritiesRAs will ensure guidance for and coordination between RCCs
16 RCCs and climate prediction GPC global products essential input to RCCsRCCs will downscale and develop regional-scale prediction productsRCCs will serve NMHSs, all latitudes/regionsEnd-users are sectoral experts, governments, the publicRegional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) would provide an outreach arm to the GPC/RCC operations, to engage regional climate/user communities and building networks of communities sharing common climate problems, particularly among developing countries.
17 Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) A component of CLIPSFirst established in 1996: Meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe.Regional mechanism for the formulation and dissemination of climate forecasts and outlooksBring together providers of and users of SIPs.RCOFs constitute an important vehicle in developing regions for providing advance information on the likely climate features of the upcoming season, and for developing a consensus product from amongst the multiple available individual predictions.RCOFs stimulate the development of climate capacity in the NMHSs of the area, and do much to generate decisions and activities that mitigate adverse impacts of climate and help communities adapt to climate variability.Global review of RCOFs: November 2008, Arusha, Tanzania.
19 Global Climate Prediction Framework Global Producing Centres (GPCs) andLead CentresRegional Climate Centres (RCCs)NMHSsNational UsersRCOFsGlobal and Regional Users
20 WMO Initiative to Support Climate Change Adaptation Endorsed by WMO Executive Council in June 2008.Mission: To facilitate provision of user oriented climate information, products, advisories and services to support national and regional climate risk assessment, climate adaptation planning and implementation practices for sustainable development
21 ObjectivesFacilitate use of climate information for mainstreaming climate risks in decision makingMake available data and information for developing adaptation strategies and integrating them in national development agendaEnhance the national capacities in provision of user-oriented climate informationHelp develop regional capacitiesSupport the scientific foundation for climate adaptation strategies
22 Observations Research Climate Information Capacity for Adaptation UTPSObservationsResearchData basesClimate ScenariosClimate PredictionsClimate Informationfor AdaptationUser Specific SectoralAdvisory ServicesCapacityBuildingClimateMonitoringInformationOutlooksRisk AssessmentEarlyWarningsINAVEFeedback
23 WMO Initiative to Support Climate ChangeAdaptationClimate Informationand ProductsClimate RisksAssessmentClimateOutlooksEarlyWarningsRegionalClimate CentresRegional ClimateOutlook ForumsNational Hydro-metServicesUserForumsA · P · P · L · I · C · A · T · I · O · N · S
24 Concluding RemarksIn many regions, there is limited use of climate information for decision making within climate-sensitive sectors. It is important to find ways for all countries to cope with climate variability through improved access to climate information and prediction products and the use of risk management techniques.Location-specific information crucial; downscalingSector-specific climate indices (ETCCDI approach through partnerships with stakeholders)OwnershipObservations to support regional/national vulnerability assessments as well as development and validation of modelling tools to support decision makingGPC-RCC-RCOF-NMHS climate prediction framework will need strong observational support and user participation to be effective.The WMO Initiative to Support Climate Change Adaptation aims to tap into complementary efforts under different programmes, including GCOS, to meet the user needs.