Proposal for a WWRP High Impact Weather Project Sarah Jones, Brian Golding Philippe Arbogast, Ana Barros, Aida Diongue, Beth Ebert, Grant Elliott, Pat Harr, Tim Hewson, Julia Keller, Stefan Klink, Sharan Majumdar, Rebecca Morss, Pierre Pellerin, David Richardson, Peter Steinle, Jenny Sun, Richard Swinbank, Zoltan Toth, Jian Jie Wang, Heini Wernli, Hui Yu THORPEX ICSC July 2013

Development of Proposal for a 5-10 year WWRP High Impact Weather Project Potential need for THORPEX Legacy project on High Impact Weather identified at ICSC10 North American Town Hall at AMS Annual Meeting (Jan 2013) International workshop to define scope & objectives (March 2013) Appointment of task team (May 2013) Task Team Telecons to agree on structure and objectives (Mid-June 2013) D raft of proposal to WMO for ICSC/JSC (July 2013) Discussion at ICSC / JSC; Agreement on way forward Revise proposal for submission to CAS in November

The overall objective of the High Impact Weather project is to: “Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications” Mission of Project

Builds on THORPEX – what is new? Focus and scope of project defined by needs of a limited number of specific weather-related applications Probabilistic predictions at scales relevant to hazards: focus on small time and space scales whilst maintaining relevance of larger / longer scales Exploit opportunities from coupled high resolution models and develop new observing strategies

Scope and limits of project defined by a limited set of weather – related applications

Scope of Project

Research Theme: Predictability and Processes Predict- ability & Processes Analysis of processes Observations Diagnosis of model errors Improve understanding of factors determining predictability during High Impact Weather events

Research Theme: Multi-scale Prediction Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed to forecast weather impacts Predict- ability & Processes Multi- scale Forecasts Coupled Systems Minutes to weeks Local to Global

Research Theme: Vulnerability and Risk Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings Predict- ability & Processes Multi- scale Forecasts Assess impact of hazard on individuals, communities and businesses Learn about their vulnerability Quantify risk arising from hazard Vulner- ability & Risk

Research Theme: Evaluation Identify deficits in / grow trust in forecasts and warnings Predict- ability & Processes Multi- scale Forecasts Vulner- ability & Risk Rigorous evaluation of forecasts & warnings of hazards and their impacts Define how to measure benefits of research Eval- uation

Research Theme: Communication Achieve more effective responses Predict- ability & Processes Multi- scale Forecasts Vulner- ability & Risk Eval- uation Improve formulation and communication of forecasts & warnings Commu nication

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Joint activities of research topics to realise benefits of the research

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Applications in the forecasting process Seamless from nowcasting to short-range NWP Automation Interpretation Assessment of impacts Communication

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Design of observing strategies Opportunities from sophisticated high resolution observations Assessment of local vs. global Impacts and responses Quality control

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Uncertainty Understanding Predicting Evaluating Communicating

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Field campaigns and demonstration projects Utilise data from previous campaigns Exploit planned activities: Lake Victoria RDP / FDP T-NAWDEX Link to TIGGE-LAM Involve End Users

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Knowledge Transfer Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Knowledge Transfer Between scientific disciplines Between research and operations Internationally

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Verification Knowledge Transfer Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Verification Linking process understanding, model development, evaluation

Cross-cutting activities Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Impact Forecasting Verification Knowledge Transfer Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Impact forecasting Focussing research activities on advances needed to forecast the impacts

Transfer of Results Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Impact Forecasting Verification Knowledge Transfer Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process Transfer results and benefits of research back to receptors in an adequate manner

External Engagement To-date: knowledge of user requirements present in task team During further development of implementation plan: Engage with national / international bodies that already engage with users During project: meet with end users at variety of levels to define user needs and transfer results

Strategies to achieve goals Engage researchers from operational and academic centres; encourage development of research proposals Develop linkages with other initiatives –International bodies and activities, WWRP Working groups, national initiatives, Post-Hyogo activities on disaster risk reduction Engage communication of scientists with different backgrounds through workshops, conferences etc. Establish and exploit special research datasets Support research and demonstration projects Link to S2S and PPP

Recommendations of ICSC-11 Further develop proposal for CAS considering the following: better define the scope and focus based on a number of prototype applications that engage developing countries better describe the added value of the project compared to what will be done anyway at NMHSs further emphasize the project focus on the first few days whilst maintaining the relevance of longer time scales. recognise increasing global urbanisation, the associated vulnerabilities and importance of “urban” weather further develop the rationale/motivation for the project link to WCRP through HIW in a changing climate Link to important planned projects e.g. nocturnal convection in N. America and associated flash flooding clarify the relationships with other related WMO groups.

Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Impact Forecasting Verification Knowledge Transfer Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process WWRP High Impact Weather Project

The overall objective of the High Impact Weather project is to: “Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications” Mission of Project

Task Team Members Chair: Sarah Jones (DWD, Germany) WMO Consultant: Brian Golding (UKMO, UK) Philippe Arbogast (MeteoFrance, Predictability) Ana Barros (USA, Hydrology) Aida Diongue (Senegal, African Regional Committee) Beth Ebert (BoM, Australia, Verification WG) Grant Elliott (Australia, BoM, Forecaster / User Perspective) Pat Harr (Naval Postgraduate School, USA, PDP WG) Tim Hewson (UKMO, UK, Forecasting process) Julia Keller (DWD, Germany, Ensembles / TIGGE) Stefan Klink (DWD, Germany, EUMETNET Obs Programme, Observations) Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS, University of Miami, USA, Data Assimilation) Rebecca Morss (NCAR, USA, SERA) Pierre Pellerin (Environment Canada, coupled modelling) David Richardson (ECMWF, GIFS-TIGGE) Peter Steinle (Australia BOM, WWRP / Mesoscale WG) Jenny Sun (NCAR, WWRP/ Nowcasting WG) Richard Swinbank (UKMO, GIFS-TIGGE) Zoltan Toth (NOAA, USA, Data Assimilation / Multi-scale modelling) Jian Jie Wang (China, WWRP/ Nowcasting Research WG) Heini Wernli (ETH Zürich, Switzerland, PDP WG) Hui Yu (CMA/Shanghai Typhoon Center; WWRP/ Mesoscale WG) Link to CBS/SWFDP: Ken Mylne (UKMO) Links to PPP and S2S: Co-chairs of Projects

Vulner- ability & Risk Multi- scale Forecasts Eval- uation Commu nication Predict- ability & Processes Impact Forecasting Verification Knowledge Transfer Field campaigns & demonstrations Uncertainty Design of observing strategies Applications in the forecasting process