FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region The Great Lakes Region Congo: Benjamin Schüßler Tanzania: Victor Hüffner Uganda: Florian Possinger

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Disposition Disposition: 1. Country profiles and historic overview 1.1 DR Congo 1.2 Uganda 1.3 Tanzania 2. Differences of the Region 2.1 Analysis of statehood 2.2 Democratization of the Region? 2.3 Reasons for the development 3. Commitment of the int. Community 3.1 Military engagement 3.2 Non Military Engagement 4. Sources

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region The Great Lakes Region - DR Congo - Congo-Brazzaville - Sudan - Uganda - Rwanda - Burundi - Angola - Tanzania Source:

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region The DR Congo - Country Profile Population: 56 million (UN, 2005) Capital: Kinshasa Area: 2.34 million sq km (905,354 sq miles) Major languages: French, Lingala, Kiswahili, Kikongo, Tshiluba Major religions: Roman Catholic 50%, Protestant 20%, Kimbanguist 10%, Muslim 10%, other syncretic sects and indigenous beliefs 10% Life expectancy: 42 years (men), 44 years (women) (UN) Main exports: Diamonds, copper, coffee, cobalt, crude oil Head of State/President: Joseph Kabila Government: Interim, includes members of former rebel groups, opposition politicans and Kabila loyalists. Source: BBC Country ProfileBBC Country Profile

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Historical Outline s - Belgian King Leopold II sets up a private venture to colonise Kongo Leopold announces the establishment of the Congo Free State, headed by himself Belgians conquer Katanga Belgian Professor Antoin van Bilsen publishes a "30-Year Plan" for granting the Congo increased self-government Belgium begins to lose control over events in the Congo following serious nationalist riots in Leopoldville (now Kinshasa) June - Congo becomes independent with Patrice Lumumba as prime minister and Joseph Kasavubu as president September - Kasavubu dismisses Lumumba as prime minister December - Lumumba arrested February - Lumumba murdered, reportedly with US and Belgian complicity August - UN troops begin disarming Katangese soldiers Joseph Mobutu renames the country Zaire and himself Mobutu Sese Seko; also Katanga becomes Shaba and the river Congo becomes the river Zaire. BBC Country Profile

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Historical Outline Rwandan Genocide:* estimated Hutu among them the genocidaires flee into the DRC, after Tutsi RPA gained control* 1997 May: First Congo War: Tutsi and other anti-Mobutu rebels, aided principally by Rwanda, capture the capital, Kinshasa; Zaire is renamed the Democratic Republic of Congo; Laurent-Desire Kabila installed as president August - Second Congo War: Rebels backed by Rwanda and Uganda rise up against Kabila and advance on Kinshasa. Zimbabwe, Namibia send troops to repel them. Angolan troops also side with Kabila. The rebels take control of much of the east of DR Congo July - Cease Fire: The six African countries involved in the war sign a ceasefire accord in Lusaka. The following month the MLC and RCD rebel groups sign the accord MONUC: UN Security Council authorises a 5,500-strong UN force to monitor the ceasefire but fighting continues between rebels and government forces, and between Rwandan and Ugandan forces January - President Laurent Kabila is shot dead by a bodyguard. Joseph Kabila succeeds his father.

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Numbers on the DRC Conflict The War oficially ended in 2003, but the internal Conflict continues, especially in Kivu and Katanga „The right to life and to security are among the most basic human rights. They are also among the most widely and systematically violated“ (HDR 2005). „Conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo is killing 38,000 people each month.“ (BBC)BBC International Rescue Comitee believes 1000 people are killed each day (January 2005*) „Since the war began in 1998, some 4m people have died, making it the world's most deadly war since 1945.“ (BBC)BBC „recorded 3.4 million Congolese as internally displaced out of a poplarion of 51.2 million“ (HDR 2005). „In the country as a whole almost three-quarters of the population some 35 million people are undernourished“ (HDR 2005). HDI rank: 167 from 177 (HDR 2005)

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Republic of Uganda Population: 27.6 Million Capital: Kampala Area: sq km Major religions: Christianity, Islam Life expectancy: 46 years (men), 47 years (women) President: Yoweri Museveni Main exports: coffee, fish, tea, tobacco, cotton, corn, beans, sesame BBC News

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Milton Obote Uganda‘s first president Idi Amin symbolizes death, violence and ruin Ugandaa‘s present president Yoweri Museveni Joseph Kony leader of the Lord‘s Resistance Army

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Lord‘s Resistance Army - LRA Leader: Jospeh Kony Operates in southern Sudan and northern Uganda Seeks to overthrow Uganda‘s government in order to create a fundamental Christian state LRA terrorizes people by murderer, rape, abduction and torture Uganda and Sudan are blaming each other for supporting rebel groups in their countries

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Tanzania - Country Profile Coat of arms Source: CIA WORLD FACT BOOK

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Tanzania - Country Profile Official name: United Republic of Tanzania President: Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete (elected 2005) Area: 945,090 km² Population: 37,445,392 Religion: 45% muslims 45% christian 10% indigenous work force: 80% agriculture 20% government and office Spoken languages: Kiswahili and English,Arabic (in Zanzibar) Source: CIA WORLD FACT BOOK picturesource:

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Julius Nyerere & the Cha Chama Mapinduzi Source:

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Ujamaa based on respecting each other shared property the obligation to work For Nyerere it meant to establish largescale village- communities of several families which would reduce the long ways between the "old" villages and increase the productivity. Furthermore it would be possible to plan the production, share the work and to upgrade the lowtech machinery. In the beginning it was planned to be a voluntary process but till 1973 there were just about 2 million people living in Ujamaa villages, so the "Frontal Approach" forced another 11 million people in those villages till Source: inwent.org

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Differences of the Region 2.1 Analysis of statehood –1. Tanzania 2. Uganda 3. DRC 2.2 Democratization of the Region? –1. DRC 2. Uganda 3. Tanzania 2.3 Reasons for the development –1. Tanzania 2. Uganda. 3. DRC

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Administration Tanzania source:

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region DRC‘s Statehood Problem Fulfillment of core functions: –Security (monopoly of power) –Governance (Legislative, Police, Judicairy etc.) –Public Goods (infrastructure) –[ability to collect taxes] Core functions are not fulfilled: –Corruption and abuse of power among government officials –Deficits in judiciary, lack of judges etc. –Many militaried Militia: Integration of militia in the FARDC still continues, and has serious problems (CG Africa Report 104) –Creation of credible and strong police force (CG Africa Report 104) Current crisis areas –The Kivu Provinces (CG Report) –The Katanga Province (CG Africa Report 103)

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region DRC: Upcoming Elections First multiparty polls since 1965 The elections shall be the culmination of the peace process started in Lusaka million voters are registered (about 90% of the electorate) Planned date: 30. July. Realistic date: Mid-August „The elections are a step in the right direction, but if not carried out properly they could trigger out further unrest“ (CG 2006b) Democratisation has an inherent potential for violence Sources of possible conflicts: –Elections are percieved as unfair –UDPS boycott could create unrest where UDPS is popular (e.g. Kinshasa) Called to boycott voter registration, therefore UPDS regions are underrepresented Likely to cause long term problem: Parliaments seats were provided acc. to the registraion –RCD is about to loose control, as they are very unpopular, they currently control about 1/3 of the country. Resurgence to violence is likely –Militia/military forces controled or influenced by candidates --> pre-election violence –Situation in Kivu and Katanga will not perit free and just elections –Division of the districts Banyamulenge are spilt in 3 districts, so it is unlikely they will be properly represented

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Uganda: 2006 presidential election Registered Voters: 10,450,788 Total Votes: 7,230,456 [Voter Turnout: 69.2%] Invalid/Blank Votes: 295,525 Total Valid Votes: 6,934,931 Candidate (Party) Number of Votes % of Votes Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (NRM) 4,109, % Kizza Besigye (FDC) 2,592, % John Ssebaana Kizito (DP) 109, % Abed Bwanika65, % Miria Obote (UPC)57, %

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Tanzania 2005 presidendial election Electionresults of the Election for National Assembly (Dec. 2005) Electionresults of the Election of the president (Dec. 2005) sources: facts:CIA WORLD FACT BOOK figures: selfmade

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Reasons for the different situations 1.Tanzania 2.Uganda 3.DRC

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Reasons for Ugandas Situation Long and strong rule by Museveni Democratization process very slow Very fragile economy Terror of the LRA in the north Instable border region to DR Congo Dropping HIV infection rates Improving education system

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Reasons for the DRC‘s situation Independence without preparation –Only a hand full graduates when the DRC became independent –Mobutu‘s personal profits (est. 4 billion $) The nature of the conflict Many warlords fear they will have severe losses in free elections

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Nature of the conflict: „new war“ (SWP Studie States at Risk) –Low intensity conflict, from military perspective!* –Massive human rights violations Several displaced people Regular sexual abuse of women Child soldiers –Public and private interests are not distinguished Civil war Economy: Local Warlords or conflict parties gain profit from keeping the fire buring „Shadow/hidden globalistion“ –llegal exploitation of natural resources, which finances the war UN Report S/2002/1146 CG 2006, Report 103

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Comparison of the int‘l community‘s committement in the region Military engagement: –Congo: Monuc Eufor RD Congo Non Military: –Uganda: UN CAP –Tansania

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Eufor RD Congo Authorised under SC Res 1671 –for a period ending four months after the date of the first round of the presidential and parliamentary elections Mandate: –1700 soldiers, many of them deployed outside the DRC in Gabon –For 4 months after the elections German contribution: 780 soldiers deployed in Kinshasa Tasks: –Enforce the election results –Impede pre and post election disorder

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Monuc United Nations Organization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo – – Duration: 30 November 1999 to present, mandated until 30 September 2006 (S/Res/1635)S/Res/1635 Current strength (31 March 2006) –16837 total uniformed personnel, including troops, 733 military observers, 1100 police and civilian peronal Approved budget :1 July June 2006: $1, million

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Mandate S/Res/1291 –Under Chapter 7 of the Charter of the UN –To monitor the implementation of the Ceasefire Agreement and investigate violations of the ceasefire; –To supervise and verify the disengagement and redeployment of the parties' forces; S/Res/1565 –to seize or collect, as appropriate, arms and any related materiel (...), and dispose of such arms and related materiel as appropriate; –to support operations to disarm foreign combatants led by the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, –to contribute to the successful completion of the electoral process stipulated in the Global and All Inclusive Agreement, by assisting in the establishment of a secure environment for free, transparent and peaceful elections to take place, –to assist in the promotion and protection of human rights, –The Council authorized MONUC to use all necessary means, within its capacity and in the areas where its armed units are deployed, to carry out the above tasks.

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Consolidation Appeals Process The UN runs the CAP the “Consolidation Appeals Process” a program which is not only a money collector but also includes strategic planning leading to a Common Humanitarian Action Plan (CHAP); -resource mobilisation -coordinated programme implementation; -joint monitoring and evaluation; -revision, if necessary; and reporting on results. The CHAP is a strategic plan for humanitarian response in a given country or region and includes the following elements: -a common analysis of the context in which humanitarian action takes place; -An assessment of needs; -best, worst, and most likely scenarios; -stakeholder analysis, i.e. who does what and where; -a clear statement of longer-term objectives and goals; -prioritised response plans; and -a framework for monitoring the strategy and revising it if necessary

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Source: world bank case study

FAU Political Science - PS „State Failure“ - Lecture: The Great Lakes Region Questions/Discussion -How important is the role of colonial borders? -Nationalism, tribalism, ethnic sensitivity -Is Tanzanias Ujamma a solution for the region? -How could the „new war“ in the DRC be brought to an end? -(think of: fair trade, corruption etc.) -Do you see perspectives for the region? -The Congo‘s wealth? -Does a strong state have to be a democracy? -Why/Why not, examples? -How important is the role of the int‘l community? -State (controlled) actors -NGOs