The State of Climate Science Scary Movie 2006 NASA 2006

The Greenhouse Effect Solar radiation passes through the clear atmosphere Some solar radiation is reflected by the Earth and the atmosphere Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere, and some is absorbed and re-emitted in all directions by greenhouse gas molecules. The effect of this is to warm the Earth’s surface and the lower atmosphere.

Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Concentrations 381 We can stabilize emissions now!

Global Temperature Trends 0.8°C increase 1.4 – 5.8°C increase

381

Climate Change Impacts

» 1998 El Niño year saw massive bleaching around the world, (c) WWF-Canon / Jürgen FREUND Coral Reefs are Particularly Sensitive to Warm Sea Surface Temperatures > 2005 (not an El Niño) year… but the hottest year on record

Mountain Glacial Melt 100’s of millions people will be affected (c) WWF-Ca(c) WWF-Canon / NEYRET & BENASTAR (c) WWF Canon V.V.Sunder

Percent change in global crop yield with CO 2 effectswithout CO 2 effects Parry et al 2004

» Some plant species including trees, have already starting moving upslope (1-4m per decade) while some high-elevation, restricted species have been lost 2 » Some have no where to go…Fynbos (Cape Floral Kingdom): 7,300 plant spp. Plant Species Moving Up & Polewards 2 Grabherr et al Nature 369:448 Photo: M Case

New species composition Increase in fire frequency and intensity Increase in insect outbreak Boreal Forests are Expanding Northward © WWF-Canon / Anthony B. RATH

Spread of pests and diseases Current range Future range

» Mortality can be over 50% in salmon runs through Jasper National Park, with highest losses during years with warm river temperatures 4 4 Tyedmers and Ward Pishereices Centre Research Reports 9(7) Warming Rivers Threaten Cold-adapted Species

Species Distribution Changes » Implications for genetic, species, & population diversity

Biodiversity Time Current threat (bycatch, deforestation) Current threat + climate change

» Prolonged droughts have lead to wild fires in Australia, United States, Portugal, the Amazon, etc. Climate Change-Induced Drought Increases Fire

Atlantic Hurricane Season 2005 FIVE Records Broken : Most Named Storms: 26 named storms Most Hurricanes: 14 hurricanes Most Category Five Storms: 5 Category Five storms storms (with winds over 249 kph (155 mph) Most Storms Hitting the United States: 4 storms made landfall Most Expensive Hurricane Damage: Hurricane Katrina is estimated at “over US$100 Billion total losses” NASA: Hurricane Katrina * Hurricane intensity has increased due to climate change 1 1 Emanuel, K Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436:

Arctic Sea Ice Decline Less ice for marine species (seals, fish, polar bears) More open water Complete loss of summer sea ice by 2100 National Snow and Ice Data Center September 28,

Extent of ice melt in Greenland, 1992 and 2002 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004

Sea-Level Rise 1 – 2 mm/year; 90 – 880 mm by 2100 New York, Bangledesh, Hong Kong, Sydney, Egypt, WWF-US

Bryden et al Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25° N. Nature 438: Thermohaline Circulation Slowdown

Carbon Footprint Total CO 2 Emissions: metric tonnes CO 2 Price per ton:$16.6 (US) Total Offset Cost: $ (US) –Includes: Flights, taxis, hotel Total miles flown:>1,000,000 km How did we offset? –Support renewable energy initiative using the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol and the WWF-supported Gold Standard. MyClimate™ Carbon calculator:

We have the tools We can We must