Fifty Years of California Field Polls Henry E. Brady and Iris Hui Survey Research Center University of California, Berkeley

The Field Poll and Mervin Field Introduced to George Gallup as a high school student in Princeton New Jersey in 1937 Started the Field Poll in 1947 Field Polls archived at the University of California since 1956

We Examine Over Time… Characteristics of Field Polls Demographic and Political Trends Partisan Coalitions Regional Polarization Evaluations of Economic Conditions Presidential and Gubernatorial Approval

Characteristics of Polls Dates: 1956 to Polls—Close to 300,000 Respondents Sample Size of each poll Number of polls per Year Mode of Interviewing Universe of People Sampled

Sample Size for Each Poll

Number of Polls Per Year

Mode of Interviewing

Universe of People Sampled

Interesting Trends Captured— Also Available in Census Income Earners Married Couples Ethnicity Education

Increasing Number of Income Earners in California Households

Decline in Percent Married

Changes in Ethnic Composition of California Spanish Interviewing Begins

Californians are Becoming More Educated

Also Captures Facts Not Captured Elsewhere Unionization Religiosity Partisanship

Union Membership Declined and Then Increased

Religious Preference: Increasing Catholic, Decreasing Protestant, Increasing No Preference

Two Measures of Partisanship Party Registration Party Identification

Compare Percent Registered as Republican Versus Percent Identified as Republican

Compare Percent Registered as Democrat Versus Percent Identified as Democrat

Trend in Partisanship: Republicans Caught Up During Reagan/Bush administration; Then Declined

Studying Changing Partisan Coalitions We combine registration and identification: When Party Registration not available, we use Party Identification Question: The hybrid result is “Party Association” For various demographic groups, we plot the percentage that associates with the Republican party: For example, the percentage of males over-time who are Republicans

Males More Republican than Females Since Reagan Red is most Republican Group; Blue is most Democratic

College Educated Split Evenly Between Parties

Top Quartile More Republican; Bottom Quartile More Democratic

Non-Hispanic Whites Equally Split; Latinos more Democratic; Blacks very Democratic

Those Unmarried but Living Together are Democrats

Protestants Republican, All Others Democratic

Four Regions of California

Divergence among Regions: LA and Bay Area Democratic; Rest of State Republican

Sources of Partisan Division Over Time

TYPE OF ECONOMIC CONCERN TIME PERIOD CurrentFuture Personal Finances FINAN1: Personal Finances Now vs. Year Ago FINAN2: Personal Finances One Year From Now California Economic Conditions CALFIN1: California Economy Now CALFIN2: California Economy One Year From Now Evaluations of Economic Conditions

Two Measures of the Current Economy California Economy Now Personal Finances Now vs. Year Ago Current Evaluations Trend Together with California Measure Having Higher Variance

What Explains Variations in These Evaluations? Political party affiliation Real economic conditions

Political Party & Current Personal Financial Conditions Republican Party Democratic Party Those of Same Party as President Typically Have Similar but Higher Evaluations of Current Personal Financial Conditions

Political Party & Current Personal Financial Conditions Respondent Same Party as President Respondent Not Same Party as President Those of Same Party as President Typically Have Similar but Higher Evaluations of Current Personal Financial Conditions

Political Party & Current California Economic Conditions Respondent Same Party as Governor Respondent Not Same Party as Governor Respondents of Same Party Almost Always Have Higher Evaluation

What Do We Conclude? Result: –Those of same party as President have higher evaluations of current personal financial conditions –Those of same party as Governor have higher evaluations of current California economic conditions (but effect is smaller) Explanations: –Projection from party affiliation to evaluation of performance? –Incumbent party’s partisans doing better?

Current Personal Financial Conditions and Yearly Change in Per Capita Calif. Personal Income Yearly Change in California Personal Income Personal Finances Now vs. Year Ago (Rescaled) Correlation =.553

Current California Economic Conditions and Yearly Change in Per Capita Calif. Personal Income Yearly Change in California Personal Income California Economic Conditions Now Correlation =.534

Conclusions about Economic Measures Current Personal and especially Current California evaluations are greatly affected by real economic conditions Party affiliation is related to evaluations but much less than real conditions

Presidential and Gubernatorial Approval Measurement: Combining different question wordings using split samples Considering over-time: –Impact of Party –Impact of Real Economic Conditions

Presidential Approval and Political Party Respondent Same Party as President Respondent Not Same Party as President

Gubernatorial Approval and Political Party Respondent Same Party as Governor Respondent Not Same Party as Governor

Conclusions about Partisanship and Approvals Being of the same party as the Executive leads to about a 20% to 25% higher rating of the Executive than for those without party affiliation and Being of the same party as the Executive leads to about a 28% to 40% higher rating for the Executive than for those in the other party Projection or Doing Better?

Gubernatorial Approval and Current California Economic Conditions—Excellent Tracking Current California Economic Conditions (rescaled) Gubernatorial Approval

Gubernatorial Approval and Current Per Capita Change in California Personal Income—Good Fit Current Per Capita Change in Calif. Personal Income (rescaled) Gubernatorial Approval

Yearly Per Capita Change in California Personal Income Evaluation of Current California Economic Conditions Gubernatorial Approval Gubernatorial Approval and Economic Conditions Other Factors

Yearly Change in Per-Capita California Personal Income Average Yearly Change of 2.33%

Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Approval Average yearly change in per capita California personal income is 2.33%. An increase of this amount is associated with a 4.2% increase in Gubernatorial approval in the first year And a 3.7% increase in Gubernatorial approval in the next year Hence the total effect can be almost 8%

Much More to Be Learned! Best available data on California for the over- time study of: –Religiosity, Unionization, Partisanship –Mass Public’s Evaluation of Economic Conditions –Gubernatorial and Presidential Approval in California –Electoral Coalitions, Voting

Regional Polarization in Presidential Vote Choice from 1964 to 2004

From South to North.