1 The travel demand effects induced by a new transport system: the Torino metro Torino, 17 Aprile 2008 Prof. Cristina Pronello Team: Cristina Pronello, Paolo Villata, Valentina Rappazzo, Silvana Rodriguez Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO

2 OBJECTIVES Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO Evaluation of the effects of the Metro Line 1 on the urban mobility METHODOLOGY 1.Analysis of the literature and of the studes carried out for other transport systems 2.Design and administration of the sample surveys to the metro and surface transit users 4.Description and analysis of the data 5.Conclusions 3.Design and administration of the surveys through travel diaries and focus group

3 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO The evaluation of the impact of a new system Literature  the main factors taken into account to quantify the effects of a new line are: the InducedTrafficThe Modal Diversion Trips generated by the new infrastructure, but also from: population growth urban development income increase Modal shift, keeping constant: trip typology origin destination

4 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO Athens Golias, 2002 Surveys to metro and transit users + car users (4200 units) Previous mode: Bus 53% Train 3% Private mode (car, moto, taxi) 24% Bus/car 5% Bus/train 7% Train/car 2% Foot 3% Induced travels 2% Copenhagen Vuk, new metro lines integrating the existing one Modal diversion from car: 16% Traffic measurements and telephone interviews (1111 units before and 1056 after new line opening in both periods) 2 new metro lines (automatic metro) Modal diversion from car : 14% Recent studies carried out on new metro systems

5 Surveys design Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO 1.Definition of the investigation areas and of the scopes Line 1 (Fermi - XVIII Dicembre) Extraction of a representative sample of the metro users Porta Nuova FS (Surface transit stops) Extraction of a representative sample of the surface transit users in a major interchange node

6 Surveys design Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO 2.Questionnaire design Questions concerning the trips (O/D, habit, intermodality, trip already done before Line 1 opening) Questions proposing an “evaluation scale” about the quality of services and the factors influencing the users’ choice for the metro Socio-economical questions

7 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO 3.Definition of the sample numerousness Sampling for variables: Infinite population Interval of confidence: 95% Absolute precision: 5% metro and 7% surface transit In case of non normal populations not having exceptional values  for n > 100 we can assume good estimations Surveys design

8 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO Selection of the stratified sample: - sex, - occupation (students, workers, retired) - area of residence (Torino, 1° and 2° suburb, N, S, E, O) Survey design: the travel diary

9 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO  DESIGN  definition of the outline  selection of the participants  CARRYING OUT Survey design: the focus group 4 women and 4 men, from 25 to 55 years All workers with level of education middle-high Living in different neighbourhoods: 2 live in 1° west suburb 5 use transit from home to work 3 use exclusively the car

10 Carrying out of the surveys Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO The sampling plan gave: 402 interviewed200 interviewed Metro sample n=384 units Surface transit sample n=196 units

11 ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: usual trip (at least weekly frequency) Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO Metro (Line 1) is characterised by a greater number of usual trips MetroSurface transit Usual Non usual Usual Non usual

12 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO The 15-16% of the metro users utilized the car (2/3 usual) ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: modal diversion Metro sample Surface transit sample

13 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO Bigger O/D: Collegno Aeronautica Torino centre ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: use area

14 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO Mainly along the corridor of the Line 1 A component along the north-south axis is evident ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: revealed trips

15 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: future use

16 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO The interviewed were asked to express a judgment concerning the service quality, according to the scale: The statistical indipendence tests (χ 2 of Pearson) have showed the independence of the evaluations from the socio- economical variables. Metro: about 80% of responses are “molto (much)” or “moltissimo (very much)” Surface transit: about 76% of responsed are “poco (little)” or “abbastanza (enough)” ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: the quality of the service

17 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO the examined factors are very influent, indipendently from the socio-economical varibales (χ 2 di Pearson) the parameters related to the car depend on the income, education and O/D characteristics as the parking fares ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS: determinant factors for the metro modal choice

18 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO  RESULTS  introduction of the metro: reactions  considerations on the transport means  future metropolitan link  factor for the location choice  trip cost: distorted(twisted) perception  analysis of the WTP for an efficient transit THE FOCUS GROUP: the results

19 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO Modal Diversion The percentage of users diverted from car to metro (Line 1) ranges from 15% to 16% of the interviewed passengers and is in line with other literature examples. The users are mainly concentrated along the metro corridor, realative to the axes of corso Francia and corso Vittorio Emanuele II. Use area CONCLUSIONS: metro and surface transit surveys The customer satisfaction for the metro service is considerably greater than the surface transit one. Quality of service

20 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO CONCLUSIONS: travel diaries  the 33% of the residents in the west area uses the metro for the most frequent trip  the 29,6% of car users would use the metro rather than the car, if a useful link would exist quickness  the 47,1% highlights the quickness as a priority aspect  the 45,3% of the interviewed say that the metro is the desired mean, but impossible to use  the 37,7% would choice to live close to the metro to save time for their trips The metro quality of service is considered the same as that of the car Need of a network effect and integration to make the surface transit more competitive in respect to the car and a real alternative to it

21 Cristina PRONELLO POLITECNICO DI TORINO Thanks for your attention