Britain’s Declining House Sizes Coming to the US?.

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Presentation transcript:

Britain’s Declining House Sizes Coming to the US?

Measuring Housing Affordability: Median Multiple Median House Price/Median Household Income (Used by UN, OECD and others)

Median Multiple (Price to Income Ratio) INTERNATIONAL:1980s-2000s

Data from Royal Institute of British Architects New House Size: US & UK 2009 United States United Kingdom

House Size Decline: United Kingdom 1920 COMPARED TO Data from Royal Institute of British Architects

Terraced (Town House)

Semi-Detached (2-Family House or Duplex)

Detached

World War I: Ypres (Belgium)

British War Cemetery: Ypres British War Fatalities 1 Million (2.5x WW20

David Lloyd George Prime Minister Homes fit for heroes

Suburban London

The Result

Elitist Disparagement (Interwar) An affront to the eye ‘slums of the future 1938: “their destruction was ‘an eventuality that does much to reconcile one to the prospect of aerial bombardment’. …the new style of homes represented 'something worse than the meanness of poverty - the meanness of spirit'

World War II: St. Paul’s (London)

Winston Churchill Prime Minister

Post World War II Clement Atlee, Prime Minister : With Truman & Stalin

Town & Country Planning Act: 1947 Green Belts

Post World War II Council Houses

Post World War II Council Houses

Sir Peter Hall Urbanologist

Margaret Thatcher Prime Minister

Barker Reports … to reduce the long- term trend in house price increases to 1.1% a year – compared with the current rate of more than 9% a year – would require 260,000 homes to be built annually. Since then, an average of just 115,000 homes have been built in the private sector each year.

Post World War II: US HOME OWNERSHIP INCREASE Levittown (NY): Birthplace of the American Dream

Lakewood, California (Los Angeles Area)

From Census Bureau Home Ownership Rate: UNITED STATES AVERAGE Figure 33

U.S. nationally syndicated newspaper columnist Neal Pearce implied that the Columbine High School massacre, was caused by urban sprawl. Suburban bankruptcy predictions Faceless estates. Soulless financial districts. Elite Disparagement

Housing Affordability MAJOR US METROPOLITAN AREAS: MEDIAN MULTIPLE  Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income Figure 35 Greater Price Volatility 

$550,000 (2007) Houston Exurbs (Katy) 4,500 square feet Lot: 0.4 Acre $550,000 (2007) Los Angeles Exurbs (Simi Valley) 1,700 square feet Lot: 0.1 Acre

MANILA SICK Priorities are Wrong

Why did people move to the cities? Not light rail, good urban planning To have better lives Yet urban planning is – Reducing the standard of living and increasing poverty Need to replace policy based on means (inputs) – To policy based on ends (Outputs) – Maintain the standard of living & reduce poverty

Anti-Smart Growth Government Re-elected NEW ZEALAND SEPTEMBER 20, 2014 David Seymour 