The Territory’s Population, Economy and Labour Force: Trends and Challenges Professor Tony Barnes Dr Sarah Rummery Northern Territory Treasury and Charles Darwin University

Population Basics

Key population characteristics Source: ABS Cat nos and * ABS December qtr 2006 preliminary estimate

Age distribution of Territory and Australian populations Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS Cat no

Age distribution of Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, 2006 Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS Cat no

Highest level of school education completed (adult resident in the Northern Territory) ≤ Grade 9 ≥ Grade 10 Indigenous Territorians60 %40 % Non- Indigenous Territorians 11 %89 % Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing

Post ‑ School Qualifications of the Territory’s adult population, 2001 Source: ABS 2001 Census of Population and Housing

Percentage of population living in households of different sizes (occupied dwelling sin the Territory) Median household income range Indigenous households * $800 – 999 Other ‑ households$1000 ‑ 1399 Number of occupants in dwelling or more Indigenous households *10%32%58% Other households 34%52%14% * Indigenous household: at least one resident is Indigenous Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing * Indigenous household: at least one resident is Indigenous Source: ABS 2006 Census of Population and Housing

Occupational distribution of Indigenous and non- Indigenous Territorians residing in Darwin

Northern Territory Economy

Territory and Australian Gross State Product (chain volume measure, annual percentage change) e: estimate; f: forecast Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS Cat. No ,

Industry Proportions of GSP and GDP, to Source: ABS Cat. No

Territory Employment and GSP proportions, to Source: ABS Cat. Nos ,

Territory Merchandise Exports by Major Group (moving annual total) e: estimate; f: forecast Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS data service * Other ‘includes; beverages and tobacco, manufactured goods, machinery and equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles

Territory Merchandise Export by Region of Destination and Commodity, to , five year average * excluding Japan ^ Other is primarily alumina and may also include; beverages and tobacco, manufactured goods, machinery and equipment and miscellaneous manufactured articles. Source: ABS data service

Territory Merchandise Imports by Major Group (moving annual total) e: estimate; f: forecast Source: Northern Territory Treasury, ABS data service

Territory Merchandise Import by Region of Origin and Commodity, to , five year average ^ Other ‘includes; beverages and tobacco, food and live animals, crude materials, chemicals and related products, animal and vegetable oils and unclassified commodities Source: ABS data service

Employment and Labour Force

Territory Employment (level)

Unemployment Rate

Indigenous Employment (level)

Indigenous Unemployment rate

Indigenous Labour force participation rate

Northern Territory Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders ‘not in the labour force’

Population change and consequences

Territory and Australian Population Growth 1981 – 2007 (number) Source: NT Treasury; ABS Catalogue no

Territory and Australian Population Growth 1981 – 2007 (rate) Footnotes: f - forecast Source: NT Treasury; ABS Catalogue no

Territory Population Growth by Component Source: ABS Catalogue no

Age Distribution of Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations, 1995 and 2005 Source: ABS Catalogue no

Age Distribution of Territory Indigenous and non-Indigenous Populations, Source: ABS Cat no and

Summary measures of ageing,

Summary Measures of Ageing, 1996, 2005 and 2015

Annual Territory Interstate Migration Flows Source: ABS Cat no

Interstate Migration Probabilities by Age

~4 5~9 10~14 15~19 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~64 65~69 70~74 75~79 80~ IndigenousNon-Indigenous no. Age Group 2001 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 1996 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 1991 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 1986 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 1981 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 1976 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 1971 IndigenousNon-Indigenous 35 years of changing Territory populations

Northern Territory Indigenous and non- Indigenous populations,

Changes to the Territory Indigenous and non- Indigenous populations, Source: Condon JR, Barnes T, Cunningham J, Smith L Demographic characteristics and trends of Northern Territory Indigenous population, 1996 to CRC for Aboriginal Health, Darwin.

Strategies for maintaining future Territory workforce A strategy to improve recruitment and retention of interstate and overseas migrants particularly in the year age range A strategy to retain older working Territorians for longer in the local workforce rather than retiring A strategy for improving the education and skill levels of the Territory’s Indigenous population and as such improving their prospects of successfully entering the Territory workforce.