1. University Faculty or Divisional Name Life Impact | The University of Adelaide Genteel Decline in Adelaide: Risk, Certainty or Impossibility? Professor Andrew Beer Director Centre for Housing, Urban and Regional Planning School of Social Sciences University of Adelaide

2. Introduction – Asking the question Mike Lennon mid 1990s – Determinant processes Demographic Export performance Political processes – Conclusions

3. Demographic Processes: Life Expectancy

4. Demographic Processes: Overseas Migration

6. Demographic Processes: Projected Population

8. Demographic Processes: Age Sex Profile

9. Demographic Processes: Components of Growth

10. Demographic Processes: Relative Growth

11. Export Performance and the South Australian Economy South Australia maintains a positive balance of trade with the world: – Exports $11.36bn in 2010 – Imports $8.4bn in 2010

12. South Australian Exports 2010

13. Good Export Performance but... Lower median incomes - $433 for SA, $466 for Oz; $1,103 for SA, $1,171 for Oz for households Fewer full time workers (58.5% v 60.5%) More persons outside the workforce Fewer professionals (18.4% v $19.8%), more labourers and community service workers

14. Key Trends in SA Economy Loss of one round of manufacturing in the 1970s Loss of headquarter functions in the 1990s, partly in association with the State Bank collapse Rising of agri business in the 1990s and early 2000s, including tuna and wine Decline in manufacturing after 2000 – Eg Mitsubishi, Hoover, Kimberley Clark, Holden Shift to minerals and defence industries after 2002 – The ‘14 mines policy’

15. Key Trends in SA Economy Mining expansion very successful – Fuelled by rapid increase in commodity prices Defence spending successful – Highly contingent on Canberra Education successful – But perhaps saturated, and not a source of employment for all But – Mining services not based here – No major financial services based here – Major Federally funded agencies based elsewhere – Not a major tourism destination – Major defence bases elsewhere Excepting 7 th RAR

16. Political and Economic Processes Centralisation of government resources in Canberra – Unlike Tasmania, no guarantee as per minimum number of House of Reps seats (currently 11) – Population growth remains concentrated in WA, Victoria and Queensland (followed by NSW) – Increasingly industries are attracted to their markets, rather than their source of supply Concentration of headquarters and political power in eastern seaboard and Perth

17. Conclusions Outcomes are not certain – But SA’s role in the national economic (and international economic) system is unclear Low rates of growth may not be all bad – But does leave you vulnerable to some adverse external shocks Population ageing is part of the equation – But more fundamentally, it has been the failure for a variety of new and robust industries to emerge – Loss of headquarter functions, and failure to develop financial services are key losses

18. Conclusions And the challenges aren’t all in Adelaide – Places such as the Riverland particularly vulnerable As an active citizenry we should engage with and understand these debates – Realise why some changes are needed – Hang onto those things that should be preserved