1 Changes in the Labor Market and the Impact on Central N.Y. Workforce John Twomey NYATEP Community Discussion October 4, 2006

2 What We’ll Talk About Today We all know something different is going on in the economy, we will look at six of the underlying factors as a prelude to how can these challenges best be addressed in Central New York

3 Because something is happening here But you don't know what it is Do you, Mister Jones? - Bob Dylan Major upheaval ahead in the Economy because: 1.Baby Boomer Retirements 2.Big Demographic shifts 3.Increased payoff on educational attainment 4.Global Competitors Actions 5.Immigration Issues 6.Is it Off Shoring or Technological changes

4 Major Drivers of Change in the Economy Baby Boomer Retirements

5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Civilian Labor Force by Generation National Statistics

6 Major Drivers of Change in the Economy Shifting Demographics

White:73%65%53% (Non-Hispanic) Hispanic: 11%16%24% Black:12%13%14% Asians: 5%7.3%11% Workforce Diversity: National Statistics

8 The number of minorities in New York State’s labor force grew dramatically between 1993 and Labor Force Growth Rates, Source: Current Population Survey, various years Percentage Growth Labor Force Drivers: Increasing Diversity

9 Source: NYSDOL Analysis of New York State Department of Education data Percentage Change in High School Graduates, by Region, New York State, and Youth and the Workforce: Looking Ahead Upstate Non-Metro NYC Upstate Metro New York State NYC Suburbs 32% 6% 5% -2% 5% 6% -4% 6% -14% -3%

10 Major Drivers of Change in the Economy Hugely Increased Payoff on Educational Attainment

11 Employment Change by Education: National Statistics Employment Policy Foundation tabulation of BLS Statistics

12 Education Post-High School Matters National Statistics 75% of new job growth requires some level of post- high school training 1980 – % growth in workers with post-high school education 2000 – % growth in workers with post-high school education

13 How Do We Stack Up ?

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19 Okay, so a 4 year degree leads to high wages…. Yet New York Statistics This year NY’s Community Colleges will graduate 7,000 more A.A. degree recipients than can be accepted into our 4 year SUNY colleges of community college students work full time (nationally), So even though 62% of community college students work full time (nationally), [according to the American Association of Community Colleges], if you can’t pull a 3.0 grade point average, you can’t get in to SUNY Albany with your new A.A. degree.

20 Pell Grants National Statistics The maximum Pell Grant is currently only $4,050 Pell can not effectively be used for most part time students. Many low-income working adults discover that they can benefit very little or not at all from Pell, due to an eligibility formula that calculates the Cost of Attendance differently for students attending half-time or more versus those attending less than half-time. Less than half-time students can count only a limited range of expenses - tuition, fees, books and supplies, dependent care expenses and transportation - towards their costs of attending school. Remember 62% of part time CC students work full time Since 1980, the Pell Program appropriations have been insufficient to meet the needs of all eligible students.

21 Major Drivers of Change in the Economy Global Competition in the new 24/7 World

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Steve Gunderson, Greystone Group 23 Four Year College Graduates USA 1.3 million China950, million

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28 Major Drivers of Change in the Economy Immigration

29 Where Does Immigration Fit in this Debate Immigration is a gigantic factor in the US workforce right now Last 5 years 43% of all the population growth in United States is from immigration 79.6% of immigrants are working, higher than overall US labor force participation How big is this issue? –Percent of foreign born in US labor force 1980 = 7.9% –This percent in 2000 jumped to 15.8%

30 The Dog That Didn’t Bark Immigration “reform” in Congress has been in the news With all the press focus on immigration reform, almost no attention is being paid to immigration policies favoring high-skilled, well educated immigrants --from Fortune Magazine March 30, 2006 Since last August there have been -- with a couple of small exceptions -- no H1B visas available for skilled workers. And there won't be any new ones issued until October. "I represent a large number of multinational companies," Angelo Paparelli (an immigration lawyer with offices in New York and Irvine California) says, "and the attitude behind the scenes is, “If America won't let the H1Bs in, we'll go and create the jobs elsewhere."

31 Major Drivers of Change in the Economy Offshoring Technology Is it Offshoring or Technology ?

32 A Day in the Life Travels with John, Summer 2005 –The Airport –The Rental Car Counter –The Tool Booth –The Hotel –Kinko’s –The Train Station The Chorus (that’s you) –“These were all jobs you could raise a family on with a high school diploma, probably had a pension & health coverage.”

33 l “None of the top 10 jobs in 2010 exist today.” Former Ed. Secretary Richard Riley “Average person today will have careers.” “Average job will last 3 – 5 years.” » Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich Changing Jobs:

34 Workforce Funding as we confront these extraordinary challenges According to Congress’ General Accountability Office (GAO): 1.In 1978 we spent $9.5 Billion on job training 2.Adjusted for inflation we’d have to spend $30 Billion today to stay at the same level 3.Instead we are spending $3.5 Billion today 4.Put another way, in this time of incredible challenge to our national economic security, we are spending 11.7% of what we spent 28 years ago !!

35 In a Nutshell That’s What I Know Sometimes the biggest risk of all is staying the same……… For More information contact John Twomey at