In Search of Insights and Better Analytics Prepared for: St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department 1 Nikolay Filipets / Ankit Patel / Melis Yilmaz / Divya Boyana

In Search of Insights and Better Analytics Predicting Crime Why? To improve operational performance To turn reactive thinking into proactive decision making To improve ability to anticipate events and act appropriately To improve identification of high crime areas Pattern analysis Hot Spots To deter crimes from taking place 2

In Search of Insights and Better Analytics Predicting Crime Traditional Policing Perspective Helps to allocate patrols more efficiently Helps to reduce response times Identifies targets and uncover security threats in time to take action 3

In Search of Insights and Better Analytics Hotspots Analytics Approach The most common method of “forecasting” crime in police departments is simply to assume that the hot spots of yesterday are the hot spots of tomorrow. Longer Time Period = More Effective A research found that examining past crimes over a one-month period is not a particularly powerful predictor - hardly better than chance, yet one year of data predicts with 90% accuracy. Hotspots may flare up and diminish over relatively short time periods, but the flare- ups occur in the same places over time, create long-term trends. So, police patrols must adapt to this dynamic risk. 4

In Search of Insights and Better Analytics Our Hotspots Analytics Approach Common Hotspot Approach + Enabling Factors and Trigger Events 5 Variables Updated Monthly Alcohol Sales Tourists Unemployed Residents Released Criminals Social Events Receiving SS Benefits Recidivism Variables Updated Yearly Community Centers Public High Schools Hospitals Universities Public Transportation Hubs Liquor Stores Mentally Ill Residents Divorces Impoverished Residents

In Search of Insights and Better Analytics Repeat Victimization “Hot Dots” Hotspots relying on shorter precious time periods for predictive purposes is less effective. The concept of repeat victimization is a well established method to track future crime Studies have found that those individuals or places that have been victimized once are likely to be victimized again, a few short months time. Past victimization of individuals addresses, places, and business can be very accurate predictors of future victimizations, especially when relying on short time periods. 6

In Search of Insights and Better Analytics High Level Model Framework * Predictive analytics have the ability to combine a wide variety of data dimensions, types and sources on an ongoing basis! 7

In Search of Insights and Better Analytics How Data is Gathered Static Data- Annually Resources Government Records Publicly Available Records Dynamic Data- Monthly/Daily Resources Police Records Government Records 8

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In Search of Insights and Better Analytics Decisions & Outcomes Allocation of patrol and police presence Tells criminals that they are being watched by concentrating police officers in certain areas Identifies targets and uncovers security threats in time to take action Deters crimes from taking place Builds confidence among staff and with the public Helps officers without the experience or intuition in a particular area Reduces operational and IT costs through user self- service reporting and analysis Increases public safety and citizen satisfaction 17

In Search of Insights and Better Analytics Additional Actions May Be Taken Education of youth in high schools and promote awareness to report home violence and suspicious activity Pushing the idea of reporting abused, rape crimes will help to predict the future more accurately because most of the abused cases go unreported Involving community members through local newsletter or in monthly meetings Possibly tying to get every business to have cameras to catch criminals Tracking of families with family members who have criminal backgrounds 18

In Search of Insights and Better Analytics Other Possible Applications Cyber crime profiling Traffic risk profiling Suspect vehicle identification Forensics analysis Internal and external terrorist threats Inclusion of citizen feedback 19

In Search of Insights and Better Analytics Questions 20