Progress report: FREP routine and intensive protocols for the FRPA timber value in partial cuts Patrick Martin February 26, 2007

2 Outline Background Protocols –Intensive –Routine Paths not taken Next steps Sample 5

3 Background Are the objectives for FRPA values being achieved? FRPA timber value in partially harvested areas Evaluation question: To what degree are stand conditions in partially harvested areas consistent with the FRPA timber objective to “maintain or enhance an economically valuable supply of commercial timber”?

4 Background Classic approach Goal/objective Critical factors Indicators Benchmarks Judgements Health Report Card IndicatorObserved level BenchmarkJudgement Blood pressure 110/75 mmHg 120/80 mmHg Good Cholesterol (LDL) 100 mg/dL Fair Heart rate (resting) 100 bpm80 bpmPoor OverallFair “to maintain or enhance an economically valuable supply of commercial timber” Timber volume (m3/ha) Timber value ($/ha)

5 Intensive - method Statistical sample Population: areas part-cut sample points Measure stumps and trees Compile variables that indicate status of timber objective Judge how consistent with FRPA timber objective Sample 21

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7 Indicator #1: Stocking level Well-spaced trees per hectare Rationale: Must be fully stocked to capture site’s growth potential Observed level: Mean of 1055 ws/ha Benchmark: 700 ws/ha Judgement: Consistent with government’s objectives for timber Intensive results: Stocking

8 Indicator #2: m3/ha merch dead or down Rationale: Volume and value reduced by unsalvaged- unrecovered timber Intensive results: Dead or down timber

9 Observed level: Mean of 12 m3/ha merch dead or down timber Benchmark: m3/ha Judgement: Consistent with government’s objectives for timber Intensive results: Dead or down timber

10 Indicator #4: m3/ha non-pine cut Rationale: With MPB outbreak, during part-cut, objective maximized by logging all the pine and saving all the non-pine Intensive results: Non-Pl harvested

11 Observed level: Mean of 125 m3/ha non-pine cut Benchmark: 80 m3/ha Judgement: Not consistent with government’s objectives for timber Intensive results: Non-pine harvested

12 Results: All indicators Judged degree of consistency with FRPA objectives for timber IndicatorLowMediumHigh Level of stocking Volume of merchantable dead or down wood Pine volume remaining Non-pine volume extracted Site occupancy by poor quality trees Value removal relative to volume removal Forecast future volume trends Qualitative assessment of 17 other factors

13 Routine evaluation protocol Tried this: –Assess at sample point –Classify into 1 of 7 condition classes –Cross-reference for each class that interprets the degree of consistency: High, Medium, or Low Result: –22 sample points High; 3 sample points Medium Routine protocol: –Needs much more work –Whole block (or SU), not one point –Use the concepts from the intensive

14 Paths not taken Forest-level perspective Conflicts among indicators Composite score Explanatory data Trade-offs during the evaluation Formal team Conclusion for a block

15 Next steps Report 19 recommendations Comments, finalize, post Presentations Series of presentations and review sessions Procedures FREP will refine and test procedures next year

16 END Sample 9

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18 Indicator: Stocking level DFP Rationale: Must be fully stocked to capture site’s growth potential Observed level: Mean of 0.08 Benchmark: 0.2 Judgement: Consistent with government’s objectives for timber Intensive results: Stocking

19 Indicator: m2/ha overstory trees classed as poor timber quality ?? metric for understory Rationale: Growing space occupied by poor trees reduces volume and value production by good trees Intensive results: Poor quality trees

20 Observed level: 1 m2/ha poor Benchmark: 5-10 m2/ha? Judgement: Consistent with government’s objectives for timber Intensive results: poor quality trees

21 Indicator: Abundant, taller poor trees Rationale: In the US, abundant taller poor trees out-compete good trees and capture growth potential Observed level Benchmark: ??? Judgement: Consistent with government’s objectives for timber Intensive results: poor quality trees

22 Intensive results: Value-volume removal Indicator: % Value-volume % removal Rationale: Reduced value growth if high value component removed and low value component retained Observed level Benchmark Judgement Consistent with government’s objectives for timber Coastal, Cw50Hw50, Extract all Cw, Cw twice value of Hw

23 PrognosisBC volume predictions Scenarios: –Current –Clear-cut –No harvest Beetle kill With, and without, harvested volume added on Results: Forecasts

24 Compare current state to: –Clearcut –No harvest Differences in volume over time Results: Forecasts

25 Results: Forecasts Scenario YearVolumeCurrentNo harvestClear-cut 2036Standing146 (15)376 (31)0 (0) Cumulative437 (34)376 (31)400 (34) For next 50 years, the observed partial-cut will provide: –Less standing volume than the no harvest but more than the clearcut –Slightly more cumulative volume than the no harvest and the clearcut Over the long-term, most stands will grow less than they would as clear-cuts Judged consistent with government’s objectives for timber

26 Rapid, qualitative assessment of 8 factors that could impact achievement of the FRPA timber-goal Notable concerns: –#4: Growth potential of retained trees –#5: Species diversity –#1: Windthrow risk –#7: Cutting trees not threatened Results: Overstory factors

27 Rapid, qualitative assessment of 9 factors that could impact achievement of the FRPA timber-goal Notable concerns: –#11: Probability of add’l regen –#12: Species diversity –#18: Poor interfering with good trees Results: Understory factors

28 Degree to which observed condition meets FRPA objectives for timber Condition classLowMediumHigh 1: Stocked by residual overstory, value removal did not greatly exceed volume removal3 2: Stocked by residual overstory, value removal greatly exceeded volume removal 3: Stocked by residual overstory, value removal moderately exceeded volume removal 4: Not fully stocked by residual overstory, high level of poor quality timber retained 5: Not fully stocked by residual overstory, low level of poor quality timber retained, high level of seedling and sapling stocking 19 6: Not fully stocked by residual overstory, low level of poor quality timber retained, low level of seedling and sapling stocking 7: Not fully stocked by residual overstory, low level of poor quality timber retained, medium level of seedling and sapling stocking 3 Results: Routine – condition classes Routine evaluation procedure Classifies sample point into 1 of 7 condition classes Cross-reference for each class that interprets the degree of consistency: High, Medium, or Low Result: –22 sample points High –3 sample points Medium