1. Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) Bob O’Boyle & Tana Worcester Bedford Institute of Oceanography Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada

2. Background Since 1977, stock assessment in Canada (and elsewhere) has focused on counting organisms to inform decisions by Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Since 1977, stock assessment in Canada (and elsewhere) has focused on counting organisms to inform decisions by Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Stock assessment Stock assessment –Counts current number of organisms –Analyses productivity –Projects impacts on resource of different levels of harvesting

3. Issues with Approach Stock assessment not well integrated into rest of fisheries management system (FMS) Stock assessment not well integrated into rest of fisheries management system (FMS) –Does stock assessment really meet management needs? Variability in whole FMS not available to managers Variability in whole FMS not available to managers –Is stock assessment the problem or enforcement? FMS increasing recognized as set of interacting systems FMS increasing recognized as set of interacting systems

4. Fisheries Management System Population Ecosystem Observation System Assessment System Harvest Rules Decision System Implementation System From McAllister et. al. 1999 Harvest Control Module Operating Module Traditional Stock Assessment

5. Global and National Trend Desire to place stock assessment, decision- making, enforcement, etc into context Desire to place stock assessment, decision- making, enforcement, etc into context Developing since mid to late 1990s Developing since mid to late 1990s In DFO In DFO –Since 2001, move to stock assessment frameworks Assessment module Assessment module –2005 discussion on management framework under precautionary approach Harvest control rule module Harvest control rule module

6. Fisheries Management Framework consistent with precautionary approach

7. Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) Simulation-based framework for evaluating Fisheries Management System as a whole: Simulation-based framework for evaluating Fisheries Management System as a whole: –monitoring programs, –stock assessment methods, –harvest strategies, and –decision rules.

8. DFO and MSE SARA Recovery Potential Assessments are the nearest to MSE that DFO does: SARA Recovery Potential Assessments are the nearest to MSE that DFO does: –Species status & trajectory –Recovery reference points & potential –Impacting (all sources) activities –Alternatives & mitigation SARA Listing process SARA Listing process –Includes socio-economic impacts –Evaluates options

9. Key Ingredients of MSE Simulation of FMS as a whole, including Simulation of FMS as a whole, including –Monitoring program –Measurements that will be made –How measurements will be analysed & used in assessment –How results will be used in management –How decisions will be implemented Development of clear objectives to evaluate against - with relevant performance measures (indicator vs. reference point) Development of clear objectives to evaluate against - with relevant performance measures (indicator vs. reference point) Evaluation of feasible management options Evaluation of feasible management options

10. Steps Identify issues and objectives Identify issues and objectives List performance indicators List performance indicators Identify alternative solutions (alternative management scenarios) Identify alternative solutions (alternative management scenarios) Evaluate each management scenario against the performance indicators Evaluate each management scenario against the performance indicators Highlight tradeoffs Highlight tradeoffs Communicate results to stakeholders and decision-makers Communicate results to stakeholders and decision-makers

11. Investigation through Simulation Alternate hypotheses on ecosystem / population Alternate hypotheses on ecosystem / population Simulation of Simulation of –observation system (e.g. hypotheses of acoustic surveys) –assessment process –decision rule performance –implementation system

12. Not focused on how much resource exists & can be harvested Conducts comparison of which management strategy is most robust (reliable) under different assumptions of uncertainty

13. Consequences Ecosystem / population Ecosystem / population –Greater emphasis on what is know or otherwise Observation Observation –More explicit consideration of uncertainty of different approaches & impact on rest of FMS Assessment Assessment – provides indicators for decision - making Could be straight forward Could be straight forward NOT same as ecosystem / population NOT same as ecosystem / population

14. Consequences (cont'd) Harvest Control Rules Harvest Control Rules –What is best for the system? Constant F, constant catch, SSB & F, etc Constant F, constant catch, SSB & F, etc Decision System Decision System –What is influence of deviation from control rule? Implementation System Implementation System –What is impact of different levels of enforcement & compliance?

15. Qualitative and Quantitative MSE Often not possible to be fully quantitative (requires complex modelling) Often not possible to be fully quantitative (requires complex modelling) Qualitative MSE Qualitative MSE –Evaluates impacts from high - medium - low –Can be conducted by a small group of scientists, managers and stakeholders –Results then evaluated by a broader group