1. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications DETEC Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Potential Wood Supply in Swiss Forests LEF Biennial workshop in Forest Economics Nancy, 30.5-1.6.2012

2. 2 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Agenda Introduction Wood use scenarios Growth model MASSIMO Definition of the scenarios Calculation of the sustainable potential Description of the Approach, “Onion Model” Results Conclusions Work in progress Discussion

3. 3 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI) Field surveys NFI 1 1983-1985 NFI 2 1993-1995 NFI 3 2004-2006 NFI 4 from 2007 permanent survey 6’500 sample plots Forest surface 1'300'000 ha Function wood production 38% Growing stock346 m 3 /ha 69% coniferous Biomass increment9.7 Mio. m 3 /yr Exploitation and mortality9.1 Mio. m 3 /yr

4. 4 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Priorities of Swiss Forest Policy 2020 1.The potential of Swiss wood supply sustainably exploited 2.Climate change adaptation and mitigation 3.Protective functions of the forest are ensured 4.Protection and promotion of biodiversity 5.Conservation of the forest surface area

5. 5 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Targets of the Study Actualize data on Increment and Potential Wood Supply for the next 30 years based on the national forest inventory Build scientific background for policy decisions on the mobilizing of wood resources

6. 6 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Project Overview Growth Model „MASSIMO“ National Forest Inventory Working group scenarios

7. 7 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Project Overview Basic data for growing stock and increment from the 3rd National Forest Inventory (NFI3) Definition of a basic scenario Definition of 3 different wood-use scenarios Modeling with the WSL’s empirical single tree growing model "MASSIMO" Analyze the results with the “Onion Model” Potential wood supply differentiated per region WSL: Eidg. Forschungsanstalt für Wald, Schnee und Landschaft

8. 8 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Growth Model "MASSIMO" Scenarios

9. 9 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Model Outputs Model outputs: growing stock increment drain (cut and mortality) The data are biomass in [m 3 ] for five tree compartments, five forest functions, and 14 economic regions covering the whole of Switzerland

10. 10 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Definition of the Scenarios A:Baseline scenario constant growing stock B:Long-term maximised increment With reduced growing stock C:Kyoto-optimized (high C-stock) With high growing stock D:High demand for wood (market-based) Increased harvesting during 20 years, after reduction and finally level of scenario A With reduced growing stock

11. 11 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Economic factors Ecological factors Social factors Balancing act for a sustainable wood supply

12. 12 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin "Onion Model“ : Analysis of scenarios to ensure sustainable wood supply Total biomass potential of each scenario Available ecological potential of wood: - Stumps not used - 5-15% bark and branches not used - 50% twigs not used Potential after socio-economic negotiation process: - Promotion of biodiversity - Protective functions / social function - Standards for close-to-nature silviculture Proportion that can be used economically and sustainably: Remaining 69% for use of total annually biomass potential - 12% - 8% - 10% = 70% 100%

13. 13 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Frameconditions for analysis of the scenarios Only biomass from forest land Wood above ground from the base to the top of the stem, including branches and bark without foliage Legal requirements and standards for close-to-nature silviculture, all forest functions are guaranteed No stump extraction, no fertilisers

14. 14 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Increase of forest area 3% till 2036 Increase of Protected Areas to 10% in 2030 (presently ≈4%) Forest biodiversity promotion (managed to achieve specific conservation objectives) Social functions of forests (e.g. recreation) Protective function of forests (against natural hazards) Economic limits for extraction of wood Frameconditions for analysis of the scenarios

15. 15 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Sustainable potential wood supply AB C D Scenario D with high market demand for next 20 years

16. 16 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Resulting growing stock A B C D High growing stock Low growing stock AB C D

17. 17 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Mortality due to high density (cumulated for 100 years)

18. 18 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Sustainable Potential Wood Supply Potential Wood Supply [in Mio. m 3 /yr] coniferousbroadleavestotal scenario A 2007-20365.12.67.7 2037-20564.83.28.0 2057-21064.53.88.3 2007-21064.83.38.1 scenario B 2007-20366.23.29.4 2037-20564.22.97.1 2057-21064.13.87.9 2007-21064.73.48.1 scenario C 2007-20364.42.36.7 2037-20564.42.97.3 2057-21064.23.37.5 2007-21064.32.97.2 scenario D 2007-20366.73.610.3 2037-20563.52.56.0 2057-21063.4 6.8 2007-21064.43.37.7

19. 19 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Conclusions The potential wood supply (± 8 Mil. m3 annually) exceeds the present supply (± 7 Mil. m3). All forest functions are guaranteed for all scenarios. Detailed impacts have to be further studied. The potential varies for the different regions and for different ownership categories. The wood demand and supply is not an absolute value, but depends on timber price fluctuations.

20. 20 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Conclusions Scenario B: the expected increase of increment was not confirmed within a period of 100 years. Scenario C delivers the smallest potential wood supply calculated for 100 years. The others are ± equal if calculated. Scenario D: The considerable harvesting during the first 30 years resulted in reduced supply afterwards The baseline scenario A has the advantage of a continuous stable wood supply.

21. 21 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Work in progress The results of this project are the basis for consolidating the wood mobilization policy of the Federal Office for the Environment Regional differentiation and verification of the scenarios Analysis of calculated potential supply and current demand for wood Calculation of the forest management reference level for the second accounting period of the Kyoto Protocol Including the impacts of climate change in the growth model MASSIMO

22. 22 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Potential wood supply by assortment (Basis scenario) Energy woodRoundwoodIndustrial Roundwood

23. 23 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Compare supply and demand for energy wood (Basis scenario)

24. 24 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin Compare supply and demand for energy wood (Basis scenario)

25. 25 Potential wood supply in Swiss forests Paolo Camin For further information: www.environment-switzerland.ch Thank you for your interest!