Middle East and North African GEOINT Assessment Presenters: Jared Campbell Bryant Naylor George Norway Mike Rodriguez Dan Whalen

Overview Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) Defined Regional Country Clusters Regional GEOINT Issues – Critical Information Requirements for Mid East / Northern Africa GEOINT Analysis – Recommendations for Data Collection Strategies

Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) Defined Geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) is intelligence derived from the exploitation and analysis of imagery and geospatial information that describes assesses, and visually depicts physical futures and geographically referenced activities on the Earth. GEOINT consists of imagery, imagery intelligence (IMINT) and geospatial information. (10 U.S.C. § 467) Geospatial Intelligence is a field of knowledge, a process, and a profession. As knowledge, it is information integrated in a coherent space-time context that supports descriptions, explanations, or forecasts of human activities with which decision makers take action. As a process, it is the means by which data and information are collected, manipulated, geospatially reasoned, and disseminated to decision-makers. The geospatial intelligence professional establishes the scope of activities, interdisciplinary associations, competencies, and standards in academe, government, and the private sectors. (Bacastow, T.S. and Bellafiore, D.J., Redefining Geospatial Intelligence. American Intelligence Journal. Pp 38-40)

Regional Country Clusters Source:

Regional GEOINT Issues Iran Nuclear Capabilities Middle East North Africa (MENA) Terrorist Trends Middle East Youth Bulge Regional Influence of Kurdistan

Assessing Iran Nuclear Capabilities The development of nuclear weapons in Iran and impacts within the Middle East and the World Identify the Problem Gather Relevant Information Develop Collection Strategy Monitor/Modify Strategy Determine Next Steps What information is needed to accurately assess Iran’s nuclear capability and potential impacts? What type of sensors are critical to use (Electro-Optical, Thermal, Radar) and what targets are most/least important? Is the current collection strategy helping answer the problem or does there need to be changes for improvements? Has this current plan helped answer the problem?

Gather Relevant Information Nuclear related facilities Missile sites Military installations Missile stockpiles and capabilities Natural resources VIP locations and associated vehicles Nuclear related facilities Missile sites Military installations Missile stockpiles and capabilities Natural resources VIP locations and associated vehicles EO Multi-Spectral Thermal Radar EO Multi-Spectral Thermal Radar Roads Built-up areas Province boundaries Structures Railroads Airports Shipping ports Roads Built-up areas Province boundaries Structures Railroads Airports Shipping ports Critical Intelligence Information Support Data for Geospatial Analysis Critical Sensors for Imagery Analysis

Known Nuclear Related Facilities Target List: Natanz Enrichment Facility Bushehr Light Water Nuclear Reactor Fordo Uranium Enrichment Facility Esfahan Uranium Conversion Facility Arak Heavy Water Reactor Parchin Military Complex Chalus Weapons Development Facility Tehran Nuclear Research Facility Defense Industries Organization (DIO) Lashkar-Abad Uranium Enrichment Ardakan Uranium Ore Purification Fasa Uranium Conversion Darkhouin Suspected Uranium Enrichment Site Khondab Heavy Water Plant Ramandeh Uranium Enrichment Mo-Allem Kalayeh Nuclear Research Center Tabriz Engineering Defense Research Bonab Research and Development Karaj Cyclon Accelerator Research Kalaye Electric Enrichment Nuclear Research Center Damarand Plasma Physics Research Jabr Iban Hagan Research and Conversion Gorgan Research Facility Yazd Milling Plant Gchine Uranium Mine Marigan Uranium Mine Zargan Uranium Mine Saghand Uranium Mine

Missile Threat Zone

Three Class Imagery Collection Strategy and Data Mining Process First Class Collection Requirement: 1:1 EO and Rader 1:7 Thermal and MS First Class Collection Requirement: 1:1 EO and Rader 1:7 Thermal and MS Second Class Collection Strategy: 1:3 EO and Rader 1:7 Thermal & MS Second Class Collection Strategy: 1:3 EO and Rader 1:7 Thermal & MS Third Class Collection Strategy: 1:7 EO and Rader 1:30 Thermal & MS Third Class Collection Strategy: 1:7 EO and Rader 1:30 Thermal & MS Significant Activity on Imagery: The use of all four platforms for missile activity to include: HET’s for transportation / Moved out of covered storage Launch activity Thermal: Heat signatures indicating an active facility. Running capacity determined by amount of activity noted. Radar: The use of radar could be used for: 24/7 observations Penetrate buildings Multi-Spectral (MS) imagery Determine soil types and movements at mining sites Vegetation or Denial and Deception Other activity to note: Staging of military equipment or troops with nuclear material equipment may be an indication that they are preparing to move or train with nuclear material Significant Activity on Imagery: The use of all four platforms for missile activity to include: HET’s for transportation / Moved out of covered storage Launch activity Thermal: Heat signatures indicating an active facility. Running capacity determined by amount of activity noted. Radar: The use of radar could be used for: 24/7 observations Penetrate buildings Multi-Spectral (MS) imagery Determine soil types and movements at mining sites Vegetation or Denial and Deception Other activity to note: Staging of military equipment or troops with nuclear material equipment may be an indication that they are preparing to move or train with nuclear material Types of Information to Mine HUMINT SIGINT Determine what types of missile systems Search for any and all Open Source and Classified information that would be critical to know News articles (in Iran and surrounding countries) Social Media Types of Information to Mine HUMINT SIGINT Determine what types of missile systems Search for any and all Open Source and Classified information that would be critical to know News articles (in Iran and surrounding countries) Social Media Data Mining Strategies

Conclusion Assess Iran’s nuclear capability based on the evidence presented Determine the impacts Iran’s nuclear capability will have on the Middle East and the World. Assess Iran’s nuclear capability based on the evidence presented Determine the impacts Iran’s nuclear capability will have on the Middle East and the World. Analyze All Collected Information Continue to Collect and Evaluate Continuing to collect and evaluate data based on findings will help strengthen your analysis and provide a more accurate answer to the question

MENA Terrorist Trend Collecting more attack data and analyzing the types of attacks in regards to place and time Continue to collect attack data and collect social media data that reports attack incidents of unofficial incidents

MENA Terrorist Trend MENA Terrorist Incidents Year Total Incidents

Terrorist Incidents Maps Terrorist attacks increasing Density centered around Iraq and Afghanistan incidents Terrorist Incidents

Terrorist Intensity Maps Increased incidents over time Hot spots of terrorist incidents Hot Spot Analysis Map with GiZscore

Middle East Youth Bulge Increasing ratios of youth populations Lack of economic, educational opportunities Lack of diverse socialization – Male/female – Native/foreign Increased political repression – Speech – Elections

Middle East Youth Bulge Creates vacuum in need for youth expression Open breeding ground for radical beliefs/opinions Previously filled by radical Islam Leads to terrorism as a means of expression

Middle East Youth Bulge Atypical geospatial information and collection – Can't be captured by traditional satellites and/or remote sensors Collected data mapped over space and time – Will show trends that measure rise and decline of youth bulges Compare youth bulges against regional – Economic indicators – political instability – Freedoms – Education – Population diversity

Middle East Youth Bulge Collections sources United Nations Statistics Division – Population by sex, age, and urban/rural residence – Population by school attendance – Population by literacy rate – Native and foreign-born population by age and sex – Employed population by status, age, and sex – Employed population by martial status, age, and sex

Middle East Youth Bulge Collections sources Index of Economic Freedom – Heritage Foundation ( – Tracks economic freedom in countries Rule of law Regulatory efficiency Limited government Open markets

Middle East Youth Bulge

State of Kurdistan

Oil Production and Exports MonthAvg. Exports (Mil/ Bar/ Day) Avg. Price Per Barrel Revenu e (Mil) Jan $73.97$4.441 Feb.2.05$73.04$4.229 Mar.1.84$76.20$4.351 Apr.1.80$79.66$4.222 May1.88$73.85$4.335 Jun.1.86$71.10$3.889 Jul.1.82$71.21$4.009 Aug.1.82$71.43$3.957 Sep.2.02$73.07$4.428 Oct.1.91$77.10$4.526 Nov.1.92$80.59$4.618 Dec.1.95$86.31$5.222 Jan $90.78$6.082 Feb.2.20$98.44$6+ Mar.2.15$107.13$7.167 Apr.2.14$114.26$7.342 May2.22$108$7.45 Jun.2.27$105.16$7.173 Jul.2.16$108.80$7.3 Aug.2.19$104.92$7.124

Iraqi Utilities

Increasing Iraqi Violence

Kurdistan Revolution? Affects of Arab Spring 2011 Kurdish Protests Sulaimaniya citizens killed Iraqi/Kurdish Ministers slashing salaries Increasing food/water Angry Youth

Remote Sensing of Northern Iraq HSI collection - Vegetation Imagery Collection over: – Oil fields – Airfields – Border crossings – Evidence of troop movement Social media/reporting Collection Quality of life Public Protests Terrorist activities/misuse of government power/positions Water, Power, Food Availability Collection Strategy

Syria Kurdish Population KurdWatch is an independent Internet portal that reports on human rights abuses against the Kurdish population in Syria. The statistics reflect the human rights violations we have registered since not the actual number of violations. Human-rights violations since 2009: 599 Arrests 135 Convictions 196 Tortured 72 Fatalities 4 Disappearances Turkish Kurdish Struggles Syria/Turkish Kurds

Remote Sensing Collection Crude Oil movement Imagery Collection over: – Airfields – Border crossings – Evidence of troop movement – Evidence of Syrian chemical weapons movement or use Social media/reporting Collection Quality of life Public Protests Water, Power, Food Availability Public support for unified Kurdistan. Kurdish Cleansing? Collection Strategy Syria/Turkey/Iran

Assessment Conclusions