NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS, TRENDS & CHALLENGES OF SRI LANKA By Major General Udaya Perera RWP RSP USP USAWC psc M.Sc(IND) M.Sc(USA) NDU-CT(USA)

INTRODUCTION

CHINA INDIA PAKISTAN IRAN MONGOLIA Sri Lanka Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean AFGHANISTAN IRAQ Maldives Island BANGLADESH NEPAL BHUTAN

BATTICALOA KANDY VAVUNIYA COLOMBO GALLE JAFFNA HAMBANTHOTA ANURADHAPURA TRINCOMALEE MULAITHIVU KILINOCHCHI MULLAITTIVU MANNAR

His Excellency Mahinda Rajapaksa The President of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka

THENNOW THENNOW THENNOW KILINOCHCHI Water Supply System Destroyed by the LTTE BATTICALOA HAMBANTOTA COLOMBO KANDY JAFFNA TRINCOMALEE KILINOCHCHI

Tamilnadu Factor Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Economy Sri Lankan Refugees NGO / INGO Political Parties with Separatist Ideology Media Promoting Separatist Ideology Extremist Religious Elements Tamil Population 65 Millions UNHRC TGTE GTF ( Global Tamil Forum) HQ GP ICET (Intl. Council of Eelam Tamils) BTF (British Tamil Forum) TCF (Tamil Centre France) GLOBAL REGIONAL SOUTH NORTH & EAST CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM Friendly Nations SAARC Anti LTTE Media National Political Parties Other Minority Communities Business Media Global Tamil Population 74 Million Global Tamil Population 74 Million Slackers Aggressors Unemployed NEETs Under Employed Trade Unions Cooperates Indian Tamils VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL TAMIL DIASPORA Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO) Pro LTTE Political Gps Internationalization of Local Political Issues Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT Pro Govt Political Elements Bureaucracy NATIONAL War Widows Unemployed Beneficiaries Disables Displaced Indian Tamil Neutral Nations Media NGO / INGO Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% UN / INGO Enablers Nations Supporting Pro LTTE Org EU Arab Spring Defence Intelligence Para Military Police GoSL

“Nations have No Permanent Friends or Foes, they only have Permanent Interests” - Lord Palmerston

(VUCA) Volatile, Uncertain, Complex & Ambiguous

1.Common Global Threats and Challenges 2.New Trends, Challenges and Concerns on National Security of Sri Lanka in Post Conflict Context

COMMON GLOBAL THREATS AND CHALLENGES Nuclear Biological Cyber Transnational Crimes Terrorism Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

Nuclear Biological Cyber Transnational Crimes Terrorism Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

Tsunami 2011

Nuclear Biological Cyber Transnational Crimes Terrorism Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

Nuclear Biological Cyber Transnational Crimes Terrorism Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

(NEET) N ot in E ducation, E mployment or T raining

Robberies Unethical Hacking Sleep During the Day Man in the Middle Attacks Child Abuse Arms Smuggling Drug Trafficking Counterfeiting Active During the Night NEETs Net Intrusions Premeditated Crimes Anti Social Activities v V``V`` V``V`` V``V``

Nuclear Biological Cyber Transnational Organized Crimes Terrorism Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

26.Art Theft 27.Cable Piracy 28.Video Game Piracy 29.Counterfeit Sporting Goods 30.Counterfeit Pesticides 31.Alcohol Smuggling 32.Mobile Entertainment Piracy 33.Counterfeit Cosmetics 34.Movie Piracy 35.Metals and Minerals Smuggling 36.Counterfeit Aircraft Parts 37.Counterfeit Weapons 38.Kidnap and Ransom 39.International Adoptions 40.Fake Diplomas and Degrees 41.Prostitution 42.Counterfeit Watches 43.Book Piracy 44.Counterfeit Money 45.Nuclear Smuggling 46.Counterfeit IDs and Passports 47.Organ Trafficking 48.Counterfeit Purses 49.Counterfeit Lighters 50.Counterfeit Batteries 1.Drug Trade 2.Arms Smuggling 3.Human Traffckling 4.Marijuana 5.Illegal Gambling 6.Cocaine 7.Prescription Drugs 8.Heroin 9.Software Piracy 10.Oil Theft 11.Cigarette Smuggling 12.Counterfeit Foods 13.Counterfeit Auto Parts 14.Counterfeit Toys 15.Counterfeit Electronics 16.Illegal Logging 17.Methamphetamine 18.Illegal Fishing 19.Human Smuggling 20.Wildlife Trafficking 21.Ecstasy 22.Music Piracy 23.Counterfeit Shoes 24.Counterfeit Clothing 25.Waste Dumping

Nuclear Biological Cyber Transnational Crimes Terrorism Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

“All terrorists share one common denominator; they “live” in the future, and are convinced that they will defeat their enemies and achieve their political goals” - Bruce Hoffman

THREAT SEVERITY HIGH GLOBAL REGIONAL STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT AL QAIDA & OTHER TERR GP? PROCUREMENT– KP DIASPORA FINANCE TRADES/VENTURES ARMS SMUGGLING SEA PIRACY- SEA TIGERS INT PROPAGANDA ASSASSINATIONS SABOTAGE DE-STAB ADMINTERRORISM DE-STAB ECONOMY CHILD REC TERRORISM TERR ATTACKS EXTORTIONS LOW EXTORTIONS DRUG TRAFFICKING HUMAN SMUGGLING TAMIL NET WORLD TAMIL MOV PSY OPS DE-STAB ECONOMY COUNTER STATE MECHANISM LTTE NETWORK VIOLATING HR FORCED RECRUITMENTS LOCAL SOUTH EAST NORTH REDUCE SCOPE BY INSTRUMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER REDUCE CAPABILITY THROUGH DIPLOMACY & INFORMATION REDUCE CAPABILITY BY INSTRUMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER LTTE STRATEGY KADALPURA - SHIPPING TRO VIOLATING HR FORCED LABOUR BTA TCC TGTE BTF GTF TCF ICET LTTE  STRENGTHENING OF ETHNIC ENCLAVES ETHNIC CLEANSING

David C. Rapoport FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM 1 ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901) 2 ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3 RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000) 4 TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025) FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM 1 ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901) 2 ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3 RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000) 4 TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025) FOUR WAVES OF MODERN TERRORISM 1 ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901) 2 ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3 RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000) 4 TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025)

In “INSURGENCY”- Terrorism is a Method In “TERRORISM”- Terrorism is a Logic Dr. Tom Marks

MINNERIYA KILINOCHCHI MUHAMALAI MAHAOYA AMPARA PULMODDAI KANDY NEGAMBO OMANTHAI HABARANA VAVUNIYA HOROWPOTHANA COLOMBO GALLE JAFFNA NUWARAELIYA HAMBANTHOTA ANURADHAPURA DAMBULLA TRINCOMALEE BATTICALOA VAKARAI SAMPOOR MAVILARU KARADIYANARU WELIOYA MANNAR ARIPPU SILAWATTURAI KUMANA MULAITHIVU STRENGTHENING ETHNIC ENCLAVES ILLEGAL TAXATION AND BANKING SMUGGLING ARMS/AMMO CONVENTIONAL FORM OF DEFENCES CONSCRIPTION ILLEGAL COURTS ILLEGAL POLICE ILLEGAL STAMPS & POSTAL VIRTUAL COUNTER STATE 13,000 Km 2 COUNTER STATE MECHANISM BUILT NUMBER OF AIR STRIPS – LINKING THE WORLD FORMING OF LAND, NAVAL & AIR WINGS DEMANDED EELAM TERRITORY – 19,000 Km 2 COMMUNICATION NETWORK ETHNIC CLEANSING KILINOCHCHI BATTICALOA TRINCOMALEE

THREAT SEVERITY HIGH GLOBAL REGIONAL STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT AL QAIDA & OTHER TERR GP? PROCUREMENT– KP DIASPORA FINANCE TRADES/VENTURES ARMS SMUGGLING SEA PIRACY- SEA TIGERS INT PROPAGANDA ASSASSINATIONS SABOTAGE DE-STAB ADMINTERRORISM DE-STAB ECONOMY CHILD REC TERRORISM TERR ATTACKS EXTORTIONS LOW EXTORTIONS DRUG TRAFFICKING HUMAN SMUGGLING TAMIL NET WORLD TAMIL MOV PSY OPS DE-STAB ECONOMY COUNTER STATE MECHANISM LTTE NETWORK VIOLATING HR FORCED RECRUITMENTS LOCAL SOUTH EAST NORTH REDUCE SCOPE BY INSTRUMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER REDUCE CAPABILITY THROUGH DIPLOMACY & INFORMATION REDUCE CAPABILITY BY INSTRUMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER LTTE STRATEGY UnorganizedUnorganized LocalizedLocalized Non-sponsoredNon-sponsored I SOLATED I SOLATED KADALPURA - SHIPPING TRO  FALSE PROPAGANDA  FALSE ALLEGATIONS ON HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS  CREATE ETHNIC DISHARMONY  STRENGTHENING OF ETHNIC ENCLAVES ETHNIC CLEANSING VIOLATING HR FORCED LABOUR MILITARY DEFEATOF THE LTTE BTA TCC TGTE BTF GTF TCF ICET LTTE

1 ST - Anarchist Wave (1881 – 1901) 2 ND - Anti – Colonial Wave (1920 – 1960) 3 RD - New Left Wave (1960 – 2000) 4 TH - Religious / Ethnic Wave (1979 – 2025) 5 TH - ?

Nuclear Biological Cyber Transnational Crimes Terrorism Challenges and Security Threats due to Environment/Climatic Changes and Natural Disasters

NEW TRENDS, CHALLENGES AND CONCERNS ON NATIONAL SECURITY OF SRI LANKA IN POST CONFLICT CONTEXT

Ideological Constituting Ethnic Enclaves Non State Actors Perception

Ideological Threat and International Network Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves Non State Actors Perception

Tamilnadu Factor Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Sri Lankan Refugees NGO / INGO Political Parties with Separatist Ideology Media Promoting Separatist Ideology Extremist Religious Elements Tamil Population 65 Millions UNHRC TGTE GTF HQ GP ICET BTF TCF GLOBAL REGIONAL SOUTH NORTH & EAST CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM Friendly Nations SAARC Anti LTTE Media National Political Parties Other Minority Communities Business Media Global Tamil Population 74 Million Global Tamil Population 74 Million Slackers Aggressors Unemployed NEETs Under Employed Trade Unions Cooperates Indian Tamils VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL TAMIL DIASPORA Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO) Pro LTTE Political Gps Internationalization of Local Political Issues Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT Pro Govt Political Elements Bureaucracy NATIONAL War Widows Unemployed Beneficiaries Disables Displaced Indian Tamil Neutral Nations Media NGO / INGO Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% UN / INGO Enablers Nations Supporting Pro LTTE Org EU Arab Spring Economy Defence Intelligence Para Military Police GoSL

TGTE - Transactional Government of Tamil Eelam BTF- British Tamil Forum MTF -Malaysian Tamil Forum HQ GP- Headquarter Group TCC- Tamil Coordinating Committee GTF- Global Tamil Forum

TGTE V RUDRAKUMARAN PRIME MINISTER GTF DR. S. J. EMMANUEL PRESIDENT TCC PERINBANAYAGAM NEDIYAWAN LEADER HQ GROUP SEKARAPILLAI ARIVALAGAN SENIOR INTELLIGENCE LEADER PRESENT LTTE INTERNATIONAL NETWORK BTF TCF MTF

Tamilnadu Factor Sri Lankan Refugees NGO / INGO Political Parties with Separatist Ideology Media Promoting Separatist Ideology Extremist Religious Elements Tamil Population 65 Millions UNHRC GLOBAL REGIONAL SOUTH NORTH & EAST CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM Friendly Nations SAARC Anti LTTE Media National Political Parties Other Minority Communities Business Media Global Tamil Population 74 Million Global Tamil Population 74 Million Aggressors Unemployed NEETs Under Employed Trade Unions Cooperates Indian Tamils VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL TAMIL DIASPORA Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO) Pro LTTE Political Gps Internationalization of Local Political Issues Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT Pro Govt Political Elements Bureaucracy NATIONAL War Widows Unemployed Beneficiaries Disables Displaced Indian Tamil Neutral Nations Media NGO / INGO Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% UN / INGO Enablers EU ` Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Arab Spring Slackers ` Nations Supporting Pro LTTE Org Economy Economic Refugees Defence Intelligence Para Military Police GoSL TGTE GTF HQ GP ICET BTF TCF

Ideological Threat and International Network Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves Non State Actors Perception

Tamilnadu Factor Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Economy Sri Lankan Refugees NGO / INGO Political Parties with Separatist Ideology Media Promoting Separatist Ideology Extremist Religious Elements Tamil Population 65 Millions UNHRC GLOBAL REGIONAL SOUTH NORTH & EAST CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM Friendly Nations SAARC Anti LTTE Media National Political Parties Other Minority Communities Business Media Global Tamil Population 74 Million Global Tamil Population 74 Million Slackers Aggressors Unemployed NEETs Under Employed Trade Unions Cooperates Indian Tamils VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL TAMIL DIASPORA Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO) Pro LTTE Political Gps Internationalization of Local Political Issues Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT Pro Govt Political Elements Bureaucracy NATIONAL War Widows Unemployed Beneficiaries Disables Displaced Indian Tamil Neutral Nations Media NGO / INGO Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% UN / INGO Enablers Nations Supporting Pro LTTE Org EU Arab Spring Ethnic Enclave Defence Intelligence Para Military Police GoSL TGTE GTF HQ GP ICET BTF TCF

Ideological Threat and International Network Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves Non State Actors Perception

Violent Non Violent Non State Actors

Tamilnadu Factor Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Economy Sri Lankan Refugees NGO / INGO Political Parties with Separatist Ideology Media Promoting Separatist Ideology Extremist Religious Elements Tamil Population 65 Millions UNHRC GLOBAL REGIONAL SOUTH NORTH & EAST CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM Friendly Nations SAARC Anti LTTE Media National Political Parties Other Minority Communities Business Media Global Tamil Population 74 Million Global Tamil Population 74 Million Slackers Aggressors Unemployed NEETs Under Employed Trade Unions Cooperates Indian Tamils VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL TAMIL DIASPORA Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO) Pro LTTE Political Gps Internationalization of Local Political Issues Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT Pro Govt Political Elements Bureaucracy NATIONAL War Widows Unemployed Beneficiaries Disables Displaced Indian Tamil Neutral Nations Media NGO / INGO Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% UN / INGO Enablers Nations Supporting Pro LTTE Org EU Arab Spring Ethnic Enclave Defence Intelligence Para Military Police GoSL TGTE GTF HQ GP ICET BTF TCF

TREATY OF WESTPHALIA 1648

PRINCIPLE OF TREATY OF WESTPHALIA Sovereignty Equality Internationally Binding Treaties Non Intervention of Internal Affairs

Ideological Threat and International Network Destabilization Through Constituting Ethnic and Religious Enclaves Non State Actors Perception

Tamilnadu Factor Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Tamil Pop North & East 1,611,036 Sri Lankan Refugees NGO / INGO TNA (Tamil National Alliance) Media Promoting Separatist Ideology Extremist Religious Elements Tamil Population 65 Millions UNHRC GLOBAL REGIONAL SOUTH NORTH & EAST CONSENSUS / MODERATE EXTREMISM / SEPARATISM Friendly Nations SAARC Anti LTTE Media National Political Parties Other Minority Communities Business Media Global Tamil Population 74 Million Global Tamil Population 74 Million Slackers Aggressors Unemployed NEETs Under Employed Trade Unions Cooperates Indian Tamils VULNERABLE / NEUTRAL TAMIL DIASPORA Tamil Elam Supporters Org (TESO) Pro LTTE Political Gps Internationalization of Local Political Issues Political Parties with Extremist Ideologies STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT Pro Govt Political Elements Bureaucracy NATIONAL War Widows Unemployed Beneficiaries Disables Displaced Indian Tamil Neutral Nations Media NGO / INGO Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% Tamil pop 3 Million South – 46% North – 54% UN / INGO Enablers Nations Supporting Pro LTTE Org EU Arab Spring Economy Defence Intelligence Para Military Police GoSL TGTE GTF HQ GP ICET BTF TCF

CONCLUSION

MEANSWAYS (6R)ENDS Elements of National Power R econstituting the Government authority over LTTE controlled areas through Humanitarian Operation PEACE Conflict 5R R econstruction R esettlement R ehabilitation R eintegration R econciliation Sustainable PEACE & DEVELOPMENT Post Conflict

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