RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Geospatial Decision Support Tools for Early Warning Services & Disaster Risk Management S.Jothiganesh & G.Srinivasan Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Bangkok, Thailand Seminar on Disaster Management Geospatial World Forum 2011, 21 Jan 2011, Hyderabad, India

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia EWS and DRM Early Warning Services - Informing the occurrence /consequence of magnitude and risk of a disaster to save lives Disaster Risk Management - Awareness and preparedness to manage the risks of a disaster 2 What for EWS and DRM? Save human lives, Livestock's, Infrastructures, Crops etc.,

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Geospatial Decision Support Tools 3 Weather forecast Climate forecast Tsunami forecast GIS Sectoral impacts Potential population affected Scientific Information Warning Information Mitigation plans 1.Hazard Assessment 2.Exposure Assessment 3.Vulnerability Index Assessment 4.Elements at Risk 5.Potential Impact Assessment 6.Risk Modeling etc.,

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia RIMES - Early Warning Services International and intergovernmental institution Generation, communication, and application of early warning information. Provision of earthquake alerts and regional tsunami bulletins; hydro-meteorological research Generation of localized and tailored weather and climate information of different time scales Development of decision-support tools and new generation hazard risk information products; Analysis of risks to climate variability and change, and identification of risk management and adaptation options; 4 Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia GIS system in housed at RIMES Earthquake Information & Hazard Assessment System Tsunami Risk Assessment Toolset Weather Information System Geo-Climate Information System 5 RIMES implemented an inexpensive GIS tool called SAVGIS ( for bridging scientists and disaster managers.

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Earthquake Information System Comprehensive geodatabase with historical earthquake detections from regional centers (such as USGS, GEOFON, RIMES) 6 Geospatial datasets such as administrative boundaries, plate boundaries, major rivers, elevation and bathymetry datasets (ETOPO, GEBCO,) fault lines, zones and geological features etc Spatial knowledge about occurrence and severity of historical earthquakes

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Earthquake Hazard Assessment System Severity of ground shake for estimating potential damage. Geographical Exposure, Population at risk based on MMI scale. 7 Instrumental Intensity III-IIIIVVVIVIIVIIIIXX Acceleration (%g) < >124 Potential damage None Very Light LightModerateModerate to Heavy HeavyVery Heavy Source: USGS

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia What for EIHAS? Disseminate near real time earthquake information to National focal points through and to publich through website Help Disaster Managers, Search and Rescue officers, Relief Supply officers from National Government agencies for planning activities Know areas which had severe ground shake and potential damages over the region Rescue operations and Mitigation activities based on potential damage Development of risk models by using prior events and its damage or loss of buildings or population. 8

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Tsunami Risk Assessment Toolset Hazard and risk assessment, Digital elevation model generation, Digitizing contour from bathymetry datasets, Digitize building foot prints from satellite imageries Global elevation datasets SRTM, ASTER, ETOPO and GEBCO; population GRUMP datasets; Tsunami wave height from propagation and inundation models are integrated 9Jothiganesh Grid computation, re-gridding, grid analysis, interpolation Data feeds are supported in the form of XYZ vector or ASCII raster format, to be imported into Geodatabase.

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia RIMES Regional Tsunami Risk Assessment 10 To understand the spatial distribution of tsunami hazard and risk in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea Regions To classify and prioritize the most vulnerable sites for detailed risk assessment

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia What for TRAT? Disaster Managers, Local Government officials, Insurance companies, Mitigation planning officers can use this TRAT system for planning and preparedness activities Identifying Hazard profile of an area by bringing Inundation height or wave height from propagation or inundation scenarios with exposed elements is first step to build risk information Modeling the damages for elements at risk will lead a way to give improved risk information along with Tsunami forecast 11

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Geo-Climate Information System Compiles climate risk information and a wide array of sectoral information in a single platform, enabling the user to perform grid analysis, spatial queries and statistical analysis Geospatial database enables the disaster manager to analyze the current status of various entities including water resources, agriculture etc. and the future impacts 12

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Geo-Climate Information System Observed historic rainfall for Cambodia. 13 GCM comparison over Indian region

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia What for GCIS ? Visualizing the climate projections from various global models Statistical downscaling of global model to regional level Comparing datasets and deriving regression coefficients Understand the sectoral impacts of climate change by bringing together climate and various layers of geography, climate 14

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Weather Information System Plotting weather parameters (surface, contours) such as rainfall, geo-potential height, wind speed, wind direction, mean sea level pressure etc. (Figure3&4) Spatial Analysis of weather information with geographic elements Weather observational and forecast database development and management Performing weather forecast verification and validation with observed datasets 15

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Weather Information System 16 Bringing Weather information with Geography (Spatial features) enables the user better understanding about the weather patterns in a geographic region. Serves as a database management system for storing observed weather parameters, forecast information’s and other spatial datasets.

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia What for WIS? Weather Database Management : Spatial and Temporal datasets of surface observatory and Forecast products Generate Value added products by adding Geographical Information to forecast. Serves to interpret and analyze scientific products Helps in Decision making purposes for issuance of warnings and verification. Exposure assessment with help of demography, environmental and socio-economic data Historical impacts analysis for deriving thresholds by case analysis. Evolving the process of generating pre-impact scenarios 17

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia More detail about weather application….. 18

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Why Weather and Geography? 19 Better visualization for better interpretation and understanding Knowledge about influence of a parameter with respect to geography and period. Help to make decisions for managing the impacts and influence of the event in sectors like Agriculture, Water resource, Drainage, Infrastructure, Transportation, Irrigation etc., Source: GOOGLE

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia How Weather & Geography? 20 Regional Forecast Map Nghe Province Disticts: Tan Ky, Yen Ti, Yen Thanh, Dien Chau, Do Luong, Ahn Son GIS Generates Value Added Information

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Hazard Thresholds What is the threshold value of rainfall in a geographic area to trigger an impact (hazard)? Heavy Rainfall can cause? Flood.. Flood can affect? Livelihood.. Infrastructure… Agriculture… Etc., Heavy Rainfall? Rainfall amount which can cause impacts for society (Ex: 300mm/day or 200mm.hr) What is threshold? What it cause and Where? What is Impact? 21

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Elements at Risk? Identifying the elements exposed (not Vulnerable) in the Hazard Zone, which is likely to have an impacts for a disaster event 22 ElementsDescription PopulationNo. of people (Age group) HouseholdsNo. of houses (Brick, Thatched, Wood) LivestockNo. of live stocks (cows, chicken, goat) AgricultureArea of crops (paddy, Groundnut, Sugarcane) Community PlacesSchools, Colleges, Community Halls etc., Critical InfrastructureAirports, Mines, Gas station, etc.,

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Potential Impact? Collateral Hazards Flooding, Landslide. What kind of Impact? Human affected Building damages Crop damages Livestock affected Livelihood activities stopped Transportation routes blocked Drainage pipes Health Issues 23 Sectors Infrastructure Agriculture Socio Economic Water Resource Transportation

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Thailand Paddy field Case study 24 What? Where? When? Impacts 1.Flooding in paddy field 2.Crop damage 3.Economic loss High (because it is at harvesting stage) Hazard functions More than 150mm in 24hours in November month on a paddy field creates flooding in the field and huge crop damage. 25 November 2009 Sukothai and Nakon Ratchasima Province 200mm rainfall

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Uttaradit Landslide Case study 25 What? Where? When? Impacts 1.Building collapse 2.Human Causalities 3.Affects vegetation pattern Hazard functions More than 150mm rainfall may trigger Landslides in the Hazard Zones. 25 November 2009 Uttaradit Province 200mm rainfall Rainfall forecast RainfallAlert level 0-50No risk Ready Alert Evacuate

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Bangkok Drainage Case Study 26 Impacts 1.Drainage problem 2.Flooding 3.Traffic Hazard functions More than 200mm in 3hours in Bangkok areas which has elevation less than 2m from MSL and creates Flood in roads What? Where? When? 25 November 2009 Bangkok Province 200mm rainfall

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia ADPC/RIMES – Bangladesh Case study 27 Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, BWDB is now disseminating 3-day WL forecast at important locations on major rivers in Bangladesh Insufficient lead time (24 – 48 hours) to make appropriate pro-active decisions in vulnerable sectors Operational case A new ensemble flood prediction scheme, with skill to 10 to 15 days, allowed people along the Brahmaputra to evacuate well in advance of floods in 2007/08.

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia RIMES Weather forecast – PUC Case study 28 When to transplant? When to plant? When to store water? Successful WMP ! Assist in analyzing the influence of a parameter (rainfall) over an element in a geographical area with respect to period Especially use weather information's for Decision making purposes during various cropping stages. Ploughing Seedling Transplanting Harvesting Operational case

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia RIMES Weather forecast – PUC Case study 29 Need rainfall information to decide release/store the water for protecting crops. Need wind speed information to avoid injuries from house damages. Operational case

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Conclusion and Recommendation Geospatial tools has prime role in end to end early warning system ranging from observation information generation, analysis and warning generation GIS helps in generating the user need information in terms of hazard and risk information rather than speaking in scientific language. Efficiency tool in disaster risk management through formulating mitigation plans by assessing disaster risk over a region. Countries are in need of inexpensive and open source GIS tools and methodologies. Government agencies responsible for EWS/DRM should have GIS system in place for effective managing disaster risks. 30

RIMES – Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia Questions 31 Thank you