World Airshow Accident/Incident Overview 2012 “Looking Back to Look Forward” “A realistic, clear-eyed look at risk management for display flying is a sobering exercise. Emotionally, we all LOVE absolute extreme edge of the envelope flying....right up until the revulsion of impact. Airshow accident statistics are all that remain!” (Maj Gen Scott Hammond, US ANG) Des Barker 4 February 2013

Scope   Role & Function of Airshow Executive Safety Management   Display Physiological Environment   A Statistical Analysis - “The Inconvenient Truth”   Overview of Airshow Relate Accidents 2012! Chicago Air Show 21 August 2005

WHAT IS THE ROLE AND FUNCTION OF AIRSHOW CONTROLLING BODIES? Responsible For ? Visioning – setting safety objectives. Imposition and implementation of regulations through the specific country’s regulatory authorities. Instilling “SAFETY IS AN ATTITUDE” across the entire airshow population spectrum. Fostering of good relations with airshow organisations. Accountable For ? Airshow Safety

EXECUTIVE SAFETY MANAGEMENT’S RESPONSIBILITY To ensure that the implementation of policies, procedures and equipment utilisation, is adequately addressed and that personnel are trained within their areas of expertise. Develop and Manage Airshow Safety Strategic Objectives. Develop and Manage an Airshow Safety Management System. Compliance with Military and Chicago Convention Obligations. Monitor regulatory compliance through ICAS/EAC/ASSA appointed officers. Practice safety oversight and regulation enforcement through regulatory bodies. Ensure Zero Tolerance of poor individual and/or Corporate performance. French Connection Mudry CAP May 2000

The Hostile Low Level Environment  God did not design man to fly!  2 – Dimensional Creatures!  Human Physiology Challenges –Closing Rates 1500 kms/hr –Extremely High Rates of Descent 300 KTAS vertical –Normal Acceleration +9g/-6g –Roll Rates >360deg/sec  Human Physiology Weaknesses –Relatively Low reaction times –Inability to make quick, consistent and repeatable decisions –Inability to make good decisions repeatedly under pressure

AIM To review the worldwide airshow accident and incident safety statistics for 2012.

Definition of Airshow Accidents Longman Family Dictionary Longman Family Dictionary in the context of airshows – “exhibition” = “a public showing” and therefore makes all public aviation events, be they static or flying, an exhibition of some sort. In context, this includes rehearsals for:  Airshows  Air races  Flypasts  Wingwalkers  Barnstorming/Crazy Flying

Significant Indicators 2012  Good News: –For the first time in history?? No spectators injured or killed. –No media ‘feeding frenzy’ – 2011 Reno/Duxford/Red Arrows –17 vs 105 killed/injured in  Bad News: –MACHINE failures continue for 2 nd year - disproportionate number of vintage aircraft mechanical failures! –3 FIT Roll accidents. –Red Arrows pilot reassigned’. –Significant increase in airshow accidents vs display practice. –Budget constraints for military display teams.

There are no new accidents – Just new pilots making old accidents (Hoover)! Structural FailureFlight Into Terrain Air RacesMechanical Failure

Lies! Damned Lies! Statistics!!! Benjamin Disraeli -Charles Wentworth Dilke ( ). Statistical Analysis!

The Inconvenient Truth! “A Few Good Men". with Tom Cruise, Demi Moore, Jack Nicholson, Kiefer Sutherland, Kevin Bacon. (1991) Nicholson: "You want answers?!!" Cruise: "I want the truth!!" Nicholson:"You can't HANDLE the truth!!"

Sample Size = 276 Airshow Accidents 10 Previous Years Statistical Statistical Analysis Year Average = 27.6

Statistical Analysis 2012 Lviv, Ukraine; Su-27 (85/156) *Reno Air Race P-51 (11/66) *Osprey (10) *Tiger Moth (39)

Fatalities (1908 to 2012) 1029 vs 1429 = 2458 Sample Size = 2458

Airshow Accident Casualties 2012 = 17 Statistical Analysis 2012

Airshow Accident/Incidents Aircraft Categories Sample Size = 28 Vintage Aircraft = 51%

Statistical Analysis 2012 Sample Size = 26 Airshow Accident/incident Causal Factors Sample Size = 34

Statistical Analysis 2012 Judgement Error = 42% Non Human Error = 50% Sample Size = 26 Airshow Accident/incident Analysis Human Judgement Error

Statistical Analysis 2012 Airshow Accident/incident Analysis Display vs Practice Sample Size = 34 We do not “train like we fly and fly like we train!!!! Sample Size = 26

Statistical Analysis 2012 Comparative Airshow Accident/incident Analysis - Countries Sample Size =

Statistical Analysis 2012 Comparative Airshow Accident/incident Analysis – Military vs Civilian

SerDate Aircraft Type Category Accident Category FatalitiesEjectEventLocation1 03 Feb 2012 AIDC AT-3 Trainer Jet Midair Collision(?) 0 2 Yes Display Practice Pingtun, Taiwan 2 13 Mar 2012 Canadair NF-5 Tiger Turkish Stars Fighter Jet FIT?(Unknown) 1 Pilot No Display Practice Anatolia,Turkey 3 23 Mar 2012 Aerovodochody L- 39C Albatros Black Diamond Vintage Trainer Jet Wheelsup Landing??? 0N/AAirshowFlorida,USA 4 30 Apr 2012 Zlin 226 Vintage Trainer Propeller LOC(Unknown) 1 Pilot N/AAirshow Erfurt, Germany 5 16 May 2012 Canadair CT-114 Tutor SnowbirdsTrainerJetBirdstrike0N/AAirshowMoosejaw,Canada 6 03 Jun 2012 Fairey Firefly Vintage Fighter Propeller Mechanical (Undercarriage) 0N/AAirshowCalifornia,USA 7 15 Jun 2012 Christen Eagle Sport Aero Rolls Aileron(Engine) 1 Pilot Inj N/AAirshowIdaho,USA 8 18 Jun 2012 Hot Air Balloon Balloon Environmental (Wind) 1 Pax Inj N/AAirshowNebraska,USA 9 29 Jun 2012 Aerovodochody L- 39 Albatros Vintage Trainer Jet LOC(Loo) 1 Pilot N/AAirshowKlerksdorp, South Africa Jul 2012 De Havilland DH-53 Hummingbird Vintage Light Utility LOC (Engine Fail)?? 1 Pilot N/AAirshow Old Warden, UK Jul 2012 Rockwell OV-10 Bronco Vintage Fighter Propeller FIT (Split S) 1 Pilot Inj No Display Practice Gloustershire UK Jul 2012 Fokker DR.1 Replica Vintage Fighter Propeller LOC(Unknown) 1 Pilot N/AAirshow Charente, France Jul 2012 American Champion Super Decathlon Sport Aero Mechanical(Seat)0N/AAirshow Wisconsin, USA Accident Data Base 2012

14 04 Aug 2012 Interstate S-1/L-6 Scout Vintage Trainer Propeller Mechanical(Engine)0N/AAirshow Alberta, Canada Aug 2012 Jet Sailplane Glider Ground Collision (Vehicle) 0N/AAirshow Wisconsin, USA Aug 2012 IAR 99 Hawk 718 TrainerJetFIT(Unknown) 1 Pilot 1 Pilot Inj 1 Yes Display Practice Craiova, Romania Sep 2012 Aerovodochody L- 39C Albatross Vintage Trainer Jet FIT (Crossover Break) 1 Pilot N/AAirshowIowa,USA Sep 2012 Goodyear F2G Super Corsair Vintage Fighter Propeller FIT (Barrel Roll) 1 Pilot N/A Display Practice North Dakota USA Sep 2012 De Havilland DH-89 Dragon Rapide Vintage Transport Propeller Mechanical (Engine Fire Start Up) 0N/AAirshow Duxford, USA Sep 2012 BAe Hawk T. Mk 1 Red Arrows Trainer Jet Birdstrike0N/AAirshowPortrush,UK Sep 2012 Hawker Sea Fury FB.11 Vintage Fighter Propeller Mechanical (Undercarriage) 0N/AAirshowNevada,USA Sep 2012 Yakolev 52 Vintage Trainer Propeller FIT (Barrel Roll) 1 Pilot 1 Pax N/AAirshow Alabama, USA Sep 2012 Sia Marchetti AS 202 Bravo Light Utility Propeller LOC(Unknown) 2 Pilot N/AAirshow Bandung, Indonesia Nov 2012 KAI TA-50B Black Eagles Trainer Jet Mechanical (Human error ) Flight Control System 1 Pilot No Display Practice Seoul, South Korea Nov 2012 Rockwell OV-10 Bronco Vintage Fighter Propeller Midair Collision (?) 1 Pilot 1 No 2 Yes Flypast Practice Caracas, Venezuela Nov 2012 Hongdu K-8 Karakorum Trainer Jet Mechanical (Unknown) 0 2 Yes Flypast Caracas, Venezuela SerDate Aircraft Type Category Accident Category FatalitiesEjectEventLocation Accident Data Base 2012

“But remember please, the law by which we live, We are not built to comprehend a lie, We can neither love, nor pity, nor forgive, If you make a slip in handling us, you die” Rudyard Kipling “Secret of the Machines” The Law of Machines

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage Fairey Firefly California, USA 03 June 2012

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

Mechanical Failure – Undercarriage

Mechanical Failure - Engine De Havilland DH-53 Hummingbird, Duxford, UK Duxford, UK 1 July 2012

Interstate S-1/L-6 Scout, Edmonton, Canada 4 August 2012 Mechanical Failure - Engine

Mechanical : Human Error Korean Aircraft Industries T-T50 B Oshkosh, USA 28 July 2011

Mechanical Failure: Engine? Hongdu K-8W Karakorum Caracas, Venezuela 27 November 2012

IAR 99 Hawk 718 Craiova, Romania 23 August 2012 LOC?

Goodyear F2G Super Corsair, North Dakota, USA 7 September 2012 Flight Into Terrain – Barrel Roll

Flight Into Terrain Barrel Roll Yak 52 Alabama, USA 16 September 2012

Flight Into Terrain Snap Rolls Zlin 226 Germany, 30 April 2012

Flight Into Terrain – Split S 0V-10 Bronco, Cotswold, UK 10 July 2012

Aerovodochody L-39 Albatros Iowa, USA 1 September 2012 Flight Into Terrain(G-LOC)? ‘Crossover Break’

Loss of Control Snap Rolls SIAI Marchetti AS 202 Bravo Bandung, Indonesia 20 August 2011

26 Airshow Accidents & Incidents 28 Aircraft 13 Pilots Killed 2 Pilots Injured 1 Pax Killed 1 Pax Injured TOTAL = 17 vs 105 killed/injured!!! 2012 EXECUTIVE SAFETY MANAGEMENT SCORECARD FAIL!!!

What is it that we want from an airshow! Do we need to regulate more strictly? Where does one draw the line between regulation and an individual’s choice? Are Safety Officers exercising sufficiently strict oversight! Is our attitude one of total dedication to safety above personal ego and spectator’s adrenalin rush? The pressures of weather versus spectator entertainment? Minimum distance of spectator enclosure from showline? Is ICAS, EAC and ASSA making determined and effective efforts to change the culture of the airshow population group? Are Airshow Councils providing the necessary safety strategies? Is adequate Risk Management applied to air event organisation? Questions that need Answers!

Thank You! Frecce Tricolori USAF Ramstein 1988 “I have learned that carelessness and overconfidence are usually far more dangerous than deliberately accepted risks.” (Wilbur Wright 1900 in a letter to his father)