Slides for GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting Richard Swinbank

Aims of the meeting Richard Swinbank & Zoltan Toth

Aims of the 8th GIFS-TIGGE WG meeting TIGGE Research: –Review recent research based on TIGGE data –Discuss research needs and set priorities –Widen the use of TIGGE data Take forward the GIFS Forecast Demonstration Project and interactions with related pilot projects, as mandated by ICSC-8 & CAS-XV: –Agree plans for development of GIFS-FDP products –Agree how to evaluate products and their societal impacts –Engage with the CBS Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project and other pilot projects expected to require TIGGE data (NW Pacific TC, HEPEX, HYMEX, La Plata,…) Discuss long-term vision & way forward: –TIGGE-LAM – status & next steps; links with regional activities –Discuss how to develop links with WCRP & CHFP –Refine plans to take forward the concept of GIFS

Meeting background The meeting is being held in conjunction with a meeting of the SWFDP steering group. There will be a joint half-day session, to address the key aim of engaging the GIFS-TIGGE WG with the SWFDP, in order to agree plans for implementation of regional forecast development projects for the evaluation of GIFS products. It is not proposed that the GIFS-TIGGE WG itself run regional forecast development projects, but instead interacts with regional projects under the auspices of SWFDP, along with other pilot projects (FDPs and RDPs), to evaluate the benefits of prototype GIFS products. The SWFDP SG chairman – Bernard Strauss, secretary – Peter Chen, and CBS/TIGGE liaison – Ken Mylne, and Steve Ready and Eugene Poolman have been invited to attend on the first day. Representatives of other WWRP/THORPEX working groups and relevant regional committees will also be involved in the meeting. The schedule of the meeting is designed to maximise the opportunity for the GIFS-TIGGE WG to interact with the SWFDP SG.

GIFS-FDP Introduction to Framework Plan Richard Swinbank & Zoltan Toth

GIFS-FDP - Introduction WWRP Forecast Demonstration Projects have been instrumental in introducing research advances into operational forecasting practices. GIFS-FDP is designed to transition THORPEX R&D into the operational community. New products will be designed tested & evaluated in conjunction with the CBS Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and other pilot projects. As a transition activity, GIFS-FDP will interact closely with both WWRP-THORPEX and operational forecasting activities. GIFS-FDP defines an overall framework. Regional subproject plans will be developed to address specific needs of each region in a “bottom-up” manner.

GIFS-TIGGE roadmap The THORPEX implementation plan envisages the establishment of a Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) to realise the benefits of THORPEX in operational forecasting. We envisage 3 main stages: –TIGGE (2005 onwards) – scientific research based on archive of ensemble forecasts. –GIFS Development ( ) – development and evaluation of products & services based on ensemble forecast data –GIFS Implementation (after 2012) – implementation of real-time products and services. “End to end” GIFS. GIFS-FDP is focused on stage 2 – the next steps Longer-term developments depend on benefits demonstrated in GIFS-FDP

GIFS Forecast Demonstration Project (GIFS-FDP) Objectives: –To develop and test prototypes for forecasting various high impact events. –To evaluate the prototype products in an operational environment for a limited time period (1-2 years+) –To transition successful products into ongoing operations Collaboration with the CBS SWFDP, and other regional initiatives. –Focus on regional subprojects: Southern Africa, SW Pacific; possible future projects in S. America, S Asia/ Indian subcontinent. –Use regional cascade infrastructure set up for SWFDP –GIFS-FDP products will supplement products distributed by SWFDP, once regional SWFDP subproject is well-established –Training on the use of these products

Enhancements to SWFDP Compared with the products available currently in the existing SWFDP programme, GIFS-FDP will add: –Scientifically driven development of new types of products to highlight forecasts of severe weather; –Products based on multi-model ensembles; –Statistically bias corrected and downscaled information; –Longer range outlooks including week-2 forecasts for planning and mitigation efforts related to possible future high-impact weather events. While SWFDP includes subjective assessments by forecasters, GIFS-FDP will also entail objective verification by regional & national centres.

GIFS-FDP – key features GIFS products will be based on forecast data from TIGGE partners, with a focus on: –Tropical Cyclones –Heavy Precipitation GIFS-FDP will entail extensions to current TIGGE data policy for real time data access and operational use. GIFS-FDP will include: –Capacity-building and training –Evaluation and verification Two technical focus groups will address: –Access to ensemble forecast data –Collaborative development of ensemble-based products for high-impact weather events

GIFS-FDP interactions GIFS-FDP SWFDP Southern Africa SW Pacific Future subprojects NW Pacific TC Project Other pilot projects Other THORPEX and WWRP WGs GIFS-TIGGE Working group THORPEX Regional committees Research community Operational forecast community

12 Products for high-impact weather In response to IWTC, the GIFS-TIGGE working group initiated the exchange of real- time tropical cyclone track predictions using “Cyclone XML” format, starting with T- PARC (Summer 2008) Further developments could include: –Extension to wind speed, intensity, etc. –Development of products to visualise data GIFS-TIGGE WG identified precipitation as the next high priority focus for GIFS development More challenging logistics than tropical cyclone problem –Data volume – real-time exchange much more challenging –Need for data sets for calibration & verification

Taking forward GIFS-FDP The GIFS-FDP plan is just a framework At this meeting, we need to start developing plans for: –Product development (TCs and rainfall) –Evaluation & verification –Engaging with operational forecasters & end users … in the context of SWFDP subprojects, NW Pacific TC project, and other regional activities (topics 4 & 5). Identify knowledge gaps, and foster research to fill them (topic 6). We also need to agree (topic 12, at end of meeting): –how GIFS-FDP should be managed; –operation of technical focus groups; –formalising interactions between partners.

Extra-tropical cyclone identification & tracking Richard Swinbank

Extra-tropical trackers KMA – (Murray & Simmonds, 1991, BoM) Identify cyclones using mean sea level pressure. Tracking uses combination of extrapolation (motion and p tendency) & climatological cyclone movement. NCEP/GFDL – (Marchok, 2002) Identify extratropical cyclones using pmsl (TCs use more parameters). Tracking uses combination of wind vectors & linear extrapolation. Met Office – (Hewson & Titley, 2009) Uses θ w at 1km to identify fronts, then vorticity to identify & characterise developing cyclones along the fronts. Barotropic lows identified just from vorticity. Tracking using combination of steering level wind, extrapolation & lifecycle information.

MOGREPS upgrades Richard Swinbank

© Crown copyright Met Office 2010 Resolution Upgrades Global 90km L38 to 60km L70 T+72 and MOGREPS-15 Regional 24 km L38 to 18km L38 T+54 Plus SKEB2 (already in MOGREPS-15 / TIGGE) and vertical localisation of inflation factor CAPE & CIN to be added to TIGGE data set Due to go operational 9 March Regional to 18km L70 June 2010 NAE Research into ensemble with 1.5km convection- allowing UK model