CLIMATE-KIC GHG MITIGATION ASSESSMENT : ‘ENABLING THE TRANSITION’ PROJECTS Francisco Koch 1, Jon Hughes 2 and Martin Wattenbach 3 1 South Pole Advisory Technoparkstrasse 1 | 8005 Zurich | Switzerland 2 National Physical Laboratory | Hampton Rd | Teddington | Middlesex | UK | TW11 0LW 3 Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre For Geosciences,Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany

Step 6 Leakage assessment Step 5 Calculate the estimated GHG Mitigation Impact Step 4 Describe the baseline scenario Step 3 Define the project unit and project boundary used for the assessment Step 2. Indicate the main GHG sources that will be reduced by the project Step 1 Describe how the proposed project reduces GHG emissions (GHG mitigation story) Innovation projects (Steps 1-6) Pathfinder projects Step 1 and 2 only GHG Mitigation Impact Assessment - stepwise procedure

Defining a project type ? 1.What does the KIC project result in? A new technology (equipment)? A less carbon intensive product or produce (e.g.. food )? A decision making tool (e.g. a low carbon urban planning tool)? A low carbon service? Project type KIC PROJECT Outcome New Technology Low Carbon product Low -C decision making tools Deployment of Existisng Low C Technologies No emissions reductions Emissions reductions

MUNEP Decision making tool for municipal governments Provides information on transferring to electric buses Previous Pathfinder project

The soft­ware tool combines traffic planning and technical models to construct trans­portation scenarios with electric buses. By applying the tool, different electrification scenarios for entire bus networks can be developed and analysed. This approach enables public transport authorities (PTAs) and local public transport (LPT) operators (PTOs) to take long-range decisions on how to implement electric mobility. This project can reduce GHG emissions by speeding up the transition to electric vehicles which have lower emissions than diesel buses. Step 1. GHG Mitigation Story

Step 2. Indicate the main GHG emissions sources GHG Mitigation measure (s) that result from your project’s implementation Targeted GHG Sources of GHG impacted by the measure Reduced bus operation emissions due to substitution of diesel buses with electric ones in consequence of planning support CO 2 Diesel combustion in LPT buses (2.64 kg/l)

Project Unit = Application of the tool for a large city Substitution of 50 diesel buses (assumption: articulated buses, length of 18 m) by electric ones ( = deployment of low carbon technologies) by triggering an ac­cording procurement 50 buses is a typical number for a series of procurement processes of a large European city. Typical operational figures are: –Commercial speed: 15 km/h –Daily operation time: 13 hours (e.g. 6 a.m. – 7 p.m.) –Operation days per year: 308 –Thus, the product calculates to 60,000 km per year, giving the yearly mileage for each bus. This is a typical value for a bus in LPT service Activity metric: The transport service (passenger transport) ‘A’ provided by the project unit calculates as follows: –A = 50 articulated buses x 60,000 km/yr/bus = 3,000,000 km/yr. The scaling factor would be the number of cities / municipalities that the project outcome will be applied to. Step 3. Define the project unit

Step 3: Project Boundary

Step 4. Define the baseline scenario Continuation of the current situation Each articulated diesel bus (18 m, approx. 21 t) consumes approximately 47 l/100km of diesel, each litre diesel combusts to 2.64 kg CO 2. Thus, 1.24 kg CO2 is emitted per kilometer (‘BL_emissions_factor’) Project Lifetime –Assumption that electric buses will become common place within 5 years so the baseline emissions will be valid for 5 years

Step 5. Calculate the GHG Mitigation Impact Baseline GHG Emissions (Current Configuration): BE y = BE 0 = A x BL_emissions_factor = 3,000,000 km/yr x 1.24 kgCO 2 /km = 3,723 tCO 2 /yr Project GHG Emissions (New Configuration): Indirect emissions from electricity production, transmission and distribution towards the charging station(s) that recharges the traction batteries of the vehicles. PE y = Ax PJ_emissions_factor y = 3,000,000 km/yr x PJ_emissions_factor y

Step 5. Calculate the GHG Mitigation Impact Project emissions continued PJ_emissions_factory = emissions_per_kWhy x electricity_consumption_per_km The following figure shows the assumed emissions factors of electricity supply for the relevant years (linear extrapolation from IEA data to year 2020):

Step 5. Calculate the GHG Mitigation Impact The total GHG mitigated over the validity period equals 6,252 tCO 2 References htmlhttp://media.daimler.com/dcmedia/ html Ralph Pütz (VDV e.V.), “Strategische Optimierung von Linienbusflotten”, Dissertation, TU Berlin, 2010; confirmed by oral communication of several LPT operators http//www. iea. org/co2highlights/ (from GHG Mitigation Assessment Guidance document, Annex I, Germany) P. Sinhuber et. al., “Study on power and energy demand for sizing the energy storage systems for electrified local public transport buses”, Vehicle Power and Propulsion Conference (VPPC), 2012 IEEE)

The ecologic footprint of the supply chains (incl. disposal and recycling) for the vehicles, for the stationary charging infrastructures and for diesel fuel have not been taken into account in the assessment above Materials of the battery cells can, depending on electrochemical system, have a noticeable contribution to the overall footprint However, due to the high mileage of LPT vehicles (720,000 km for a LPT bus; 150,000 for a personal car), the GHG emissions for production and disposal of an electric bus disperse over a significantly larger driving performance These emissions therefore attenuate the benefits from the assessment above (section “Impact”) only slightly Step 6. Leakage