The Icelandic labour market in numbers Eures Conference in June 2007 Karl Sigurdsson

Key figures 2006 from the labour market survey of Statistics Iceland Working age populationCa. 210,000 Labour force (16-74)174,600 Participation rate83.1% Number of unemployed5,000 Unemployment2.9% Working hours average42.4 Working hours- full time47.2 Source: Statistics Iceland

Participation rate years by age Source: Statistics Iceland

Participation rate of years old in labour force in 2004 Source: Eurostat and more

Working hours years by gender and areas Source: Statistics Iceland

Unemployment in 2006, by gender, age and area. (Labour market research). TotalCapital areaOther areas Total years years years Male years years years Female years years years Source: Statistics Iceland

Unemployment in end of year 2006 in EU and some other countries Source: Eurostat and more

Unemployment (registered)

Unemployment trends by age

Unemployment in capital area and other areas

Unemployment by gender and areas

Unemployment by economic activity

Unemployment by education

Why is labour contribution and participation so high in Iceland?  Strong work ethic in Icelandic culture  Essential that everybody contributes to the smooth operation of the society  Great demand for labour linked to small size of economy  Difficult to “get lost” outside of labour market in small population  Wages low compared to high cost of living and high living standards  Benefit system has not been as comprehensive as in at least the other Nordic countries

Employed people by economic activity, average

Number of employed people by economic activity

Upswing/depression, emigration and import of labour Interaction between economical changes and emigration Import of foreign labour to Iceland Number of foreign citizens in Iceland Some questions:  Who are coming to Iceland?  From where? Men or women? Background?  Doing what? Which jobs?  Staying in Iceland og leaving?

Speculations  Demand for labour is the most important factor determining number of foreigners entering Icelandic labour market  Government policies and the legal framework controls which foreignes arrive in Iceland. Employment policy has the greatest effects on import of labour – the expansion last years not possible without this import. The reason for immigrants coming to Iceland is the demand for labour – go to Iceland to find job and get higher wages. The situation and development in many ways different from that in the other Nordic countries – not many refugees, mostly working people, few whole families, few children. Immigrants are for the biggest part people from EEA. Unemployment very low despite this import of foreign labour, lower among immigrants than native people.

Number of foreigners in Iceland, % 10% Source: Statistics Iceland

Net migration to/from Iceland last 20 years compared with unemployment trends Source: Statistics Iceland and Directorate of Labour

Foreign citizens on the labour market in the Nordic countries as proportion of labour force Source: Statistical bureaus in the Nordic countries

New temporary work permits + registrations from NMS 2006 and 2007

New temporary work permits 2005 and up to 1. May 2006 by citizenship NumberPercent Poland % Lithuania4926% China3655% Latvia2643% Slovakia1952% Romania1352% USA1312% Serbia1161% Philippines1121% Other countries6408% Total %

New temporary work permits 2005 and up to 1. May 2006 by sectors and occup. sectorsN% Agriculture1392% Fishing1172% Fish processing5489% Meat industry1543% Manufacturing4407% Construction % Wholesale, trade59710% Hotels, restaurants …4427% Health serv. / education1553% Total % occupations N% Legisl./managers3115% Services2404% Fishermen260% Craftsmen % Specialized trade workers77613% Plant/machine operators3956% Elementary occupation % Sportsmen / trainers1112% Dancers1442% Total %

New temporary work permits 2005 and up to 1. May 2006 by gender MaleFemale Agriculture2%4% Fishing1%5% Fish processing5%24% Meat industry2%5% Manufacturing8%4% Construction70%6% Wholesale, trade8%19% Hotels, restaurants …4%23% Health serv. / education1%10% Fjöldi MaleFemale Legisl./managers5%7% Services2%14% Fishermen0% Craftsmen28%1% Specialized trade work.14%7% Plant/machine operat.8%1% Elementary occupation43%55% Sportsmen / trainers1%3% Dancers0%12% Fjöldi

New temporary work permits 2005 and up to 1. May 2006 by age and gender NumberPercent MaleFemale years %27%60% years % 31%23% years %28%10% 50 years and over 77513% 14%6% Total %

Total labour force working in power- intensive industry projects in Iceland

Labour force building the power plant at Kárahnjúkar (Impregilo)

Labour force building aluminium smelter at Reyðarfjordur

Towards a landing  Coming quarters: adjustment towards stability, but little sign of contraction. Still for the first time in 5 years, private consumption has dropped as have investments.  Conclusion of current power-intensive industry projects, delay in the commencement of new projects, slowdown in housing construction.  Bleak outlook in fisheries – quota in cod cut by 30% ?  Export will increase significantly due to increased aluminium production.  Likely that we will see some reduction in labour demand the next months as the market will be adjusting after the upswing the last years.  GDP growth is expected to be around 0 this year, but to pick up again and be around 2% in years 2008 and 2009, but unemployment is supposed to increase and be up to 4.5% in  Expectations of managers of the biggest companies are positive for the moment, but more doubtful looking 6 months ahead.