1. Manfred Tessaring Cedefop Polarisation of skills and jobs?

2. Polarisation of jobs? EU: employment increase  high-skilled non-manual occupations. BUT also in elementary occupations and low-skilled non-manual occupations.  polarisation high-skilled  very low-skilled (Employment in Europe, 2006) USA: weak job growth in the middle  polarized pattern albeit weighted toward the better jobs (Wright and Dryer, 2003)

3. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 3 Three dogmata of education research and policy 1.Ever increasing skill demand worldwide at the detriment of the low skilled 2.Human resources investments yield benefits for society and contribute to economic & social performance 3.Skilled people are better off life chances & labour market opportunities

4. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 4 Dogma 3 ‘Increasing skill demand’ Reasons: skill-biased technological change; structural & sectoral change, tertiarisation; new work organisation; … BUT: for which jobs and skills does this apply? Do people’s skills match present and future skill needs?  How to measure ‘demand’?

5. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 5 Which jobs are in demand? (EU27) Skilled and higher skilled occupations: 2/3 of jobs Still significant share of low and semi-skilled jobs (1/3) Sectors: high skills in services (80%), medium in industry (71%), lowest in agriculture (53%) Occupational structure 2006 Sectoral qualification structures 2005

6. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 6 More medium & VET skills needed? S ome findings EU: A significant share of the future workforce will need vocational skills and competences. (Helsinki Communiqué, 2006) By 2015, France will require practitioners including in more traditional jobs (at intermediate level) in which there is already a skills shortage. (Chardon and Estrade, 2007- draft) China: ‘It is often overlooked that we need more highly qualified skilled workers and experienced technicians.’ (Xu Zhihong, President of the Beijing University, 2007)

7. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 7 Medium skill needs in sectors: some examples Logistics: new skill requirements of workers with VET qualifications, e.g. in business process control, IT logistics and management, materials tracking systems, leadership. (Schnalzer et al., 2003) Tourism: new trends (individualisation, older tourists, cultural and environmental awareness, ICTs, etc.) require new skills and well- trained employees at intermediate levels. (Strietska-Ilina et al., 2005) Nanotechnologies: shifting from basic research to production, process control, quality assurance, marketing and sales will increasingly be assigned to skilled workers with qualifications below university level. (Abicht et al., 2006)

8. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 8 Skill supply Increasing educational attainment of the labour force – outcome of past educational expansion Young generations are higher qualified than older people Younger women are higher qualified than younger men 19972005 Net change 1997-2005 by educational level LOW: - 13.5 million MEDIUM: +11.0 million HIGH: +13.0 million EU 15

9. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 9 Adult* skills EU27 (2006): 80 million adults are (formally) low skilled 60 million adults have higher skills 125 million adults have medium skills;  out of these, ca. 64% have vocational qualifications= ca. 80 million * Working-age population 25-64 years

11. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 11 What are elementary occupations? (ISCO 9) Requirements: knowledge and experience to perform mostly simple and routine tasks, only limited personal initiative or judgement. Main tasks: selling goods in streets, doorkeeping and property watching, cleaning, washing, pressing, and working as labourers in mining, agriculture and fishing, construction and manufacturing. Most occupations in this group require low skills. (Source: ILO)

12. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 12 Higher skills in elementary occupations: overqualification or higher demands?

13. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 13 Working in elementary occupations (compared to all occupations; EU15, 2006)  All elementary occupations 2006: 17 million (=10% of total employment); increase 1998-2006: + 3.6 million Some patterns:  Women: 52% (total: 44%)  Temporary job: women 38% (total: 4.3%)  Part-time job: women 56% (total: 36%)  Age:  young men: 18% (total: 10%)  older women: 30% (total: 23%)  Low skilled: 58% (total: 28%)  Second job: particularly women: 6.6% (total: 3.6%)  Earnings: ca. 30% below average (limited data)

14. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 14 Matching supply and demand Asynchrony between skills supply and demand adjustments Structural or transitional mismatches? Quantitative or qualitative mismatches  EDEX project conclusions:  Supply of qualified people is relatively independent of demand  Demand for qualifications follows supply (Béduwé and Planas, 2003)

15. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 15 Reasons for skill mismatches ‘ Overqualification’ Structural unemployment Voluntary or not? Temporary phenomena in the process of school-to-work transition Difficult employment for people re-entering work Disparities of economic and employment opportunities between countries – brain drain  more research is needed!

16. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 16 Implications of skill mismatch and challenges for policy Waste of human and financial resources Endangers transition to knowledge society Counteracts future upskilling needs, also in context of demographic decline Disadvantages in early work career may hardly be reversed  high future costs Impairs people’s motivation to upskill and participate in lifelong learning

17. Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area 17 Thank you for your attention! manfred.tessaring@cedefop.europa.eu