PELAJARAN DARI MASA DEPAN Drs. Johny Setyawan, MBA UNIVERSITAS GADJAH MADA

TUJUAN PENYAJIAN Membuka cakrawala audiens tentang: Silent revolution yang sedang terjadi Karakteristik jaman teknologi informasi Karakteristik jaman bioekonomi 11 Pelajaran dari masa depan Rekomendasi

THE SILENT REVOLUTION

THE ECONOMY CYCLES EV: C>B>A Time: F<E<D C Bioeconomy Economic Value (EV) B Information Age Economy EV: C>B>A Time: F<E<D A Industrial Age Economy D E F Time 1800 1970 Today 2020

Infra structure creation THE ECONOMY CYCLE First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter Falling price boom Business X’formation Economic Value Infra structure creation Science B’through Time

THE PERSONAL COMPUTER SILENT REVOLUTION TIME 1970 1980s Today 2005 2020s UNTHINKABLE EMERGING UBIQUITOUS & SMALLER WIRELESS INVISIBLE

JAMAN EKONOMI INFORMASI

INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE DRIVERS INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE Keamanan & stabilitas Mekanisasi Spesialisasi & produktivitas Globalisasi & deregulasi Communication tech. Computer technology

INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE RESOURCES INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE Raw materials Real estate Cheap labor Information Knowledge Skills + ideas

INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE SUCCESS FACTORS INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE Knowledge Experience Management Productivity Skills Attitude Leadership Focused

INDUSTRIAL AGE “CULTURE” INFORMATION AGE “SPIRIT” PERBEDAAN INDUSTRIAL AGE “CULTURE” INFORMATION AGE “SPIRIT” Structured & predictable Economy of scarcity Learn a skill Security Job preservation Capital equipment Status quo Hierarchical regulated Zero sum Haves vs. have nots Chaos and disorder Economy of plenty Lifelong learning Risk-taking Job creation Intellectual capital Speed and change Distributed & networked Win-win Haves vs. want nots >> the economics of attitude >> it’s your choice, your call. It’s not up to someone in central power anymore

JAMAN BIOEKONOMI

JAMAN BIOEKONOMI Merupakan the second information revolution. Enablers: Bandwidth and internet technology >> World wide digital skin (billions of interconnected devices, e.g. the integration PC w/t digital cell phone; that will create a ubiquitous nervous system for the planet) >> Lightspeed, wireless, invisible communication and interconnection 24x7x52 >> The butterfly effect. Nanotechnology >> Miniature technology (size of one billionth millimeter) >> PC will be manufactured atom by atom, molecule by molecule, to be embedded wherever, whenever, dan in whoever. >> imagine internet/web server implanted under your skin which can remind your for incoming e-mail directly via your nervous system to your visual cortex for instant viewing---perfectly, no matter what the quality of your eyes . Biotechnology >> Genetic engineering >> Each DNA molecule contains 3 billion bits of information, the software of life >> Clone for longer life, no hunger, no sickness.

JAMAN BIOEKONOMI Market power (flow of capital) is moving from the giant conglomerates (a few thousand wealthy family) to the individual consumer (hundreds of millions of individual investors/wallet votes). Forever changing in how people work, network, and access information. The value of any electronic device increases exponentially as it connects to the world’s digital skin; example: door bell which can relate to HP when someone push its button will become a very valuable electronic device.

NEAR FUTURE CHANGE Same content to everyone Any content on demand BROADCAST RADIO & TV IN INDUSTRIAL AGE INTERNET RADIO & TV IN INFORMATION AGE Same content to everyone At the same time Multiple copies Licenced by intermediaries (the channels) Very limited consumer choice of content and advertising Any content on demand Any time One copy Direct purchase by consumers from internet (no more channels; no more CNN, BBC or CNBC) Perfect consumer choice of content and advertising Requires an abundance of bandwidth

THE LESSONS

“Information and ideas fuel the new global economy!” LESSON #1 FROM THE FUTURE “Information and ideas fuel the new global economy!” “Pure knowledge is worthless. Skills and ideas are everything.” (Wolfgang Grulke)

“Biotechnology is the second information revolution!” LESSON #2 FROM THE FUTURE “Biotechnology is the second information revolution!” “Information professionals, rather than biologists, are creating an economy that will have more a profound impact on our world than anything seen in the Digital Age.” (Wolfgang Grulke)

It is the “personal” age! LESSON #3 FROM THE FUTURE It is the “personal” age! “As the focus of the new economy shifts from centralized control to individual responsibility, everything from computing to healthcare to manufacturing to energy production will feel the benefits of decentralization.” (Wolfgang Grulke)

Leadership can be widely shared! LESSON #4 FROM THE FUTURE Leadership can be widely shared! “Organizations are beginning to resemble flocks of birds, as individuals take turns to determine direction and lead aspects of the enterprise.” (Wolfgang Grulke)

Fractal/non-linear behavior is the norm! LESSON #5 FROM THE FUTURE Fractal/non-linear behavior is the norm! “Don’t be afraid of chaos. It’s just biological behavior.” (Wolfgang Grulke)

The “unknown” is the realm of all possibilities! LESSON #6 FROM THE FUTURE The “unknown” is the realm of all possibilities! “Uncertainty presents a moment of real freedom. Leave the baggage of experience behind. Take a giant leap into the Great Unknown.” (Wolfgang Grulke)

Eat yourself---become your own worst nightmare! LESSON #7 FROM THE FUTURE Eat yourself---become your own worst nightmare! “Don’t wait for new competitors to show you how customers ought to be serviced. Do it yourself, while you can still afford it.” (Wolfgang Grulke)

You can no longer learn just from experience! LESSON #8 FROM THE FUTURE You can no longer learn just from experience! “The faster things change, the less relevant experience becomes. You must learn from the future.” (Wolfgang Grulke)

LESSON #9 FROM THE FUTURE Don’t compete! “We’re living in the most competitive market in history. So don’t compete! Find white-space opportunities in which you have no competitors.” (Wolfgang Grulke)

It’s one world, one mind, one time! LESSON #10 FROM THE FUTURE It’s one world, one mind, one time! “Our planet is wrapped in a digital skin, uniting all people, with one internal clock that runs 24x7x52. Use the entire global resource base. Beat to your customers’ drum.” (Wolfgang Grulke)

“Tomorrow is a matter of choice.” LESSON #11 FROM THE FUTURE “Tomorrow is a matter of choice.” “Make it yours by focusing on it decisively.” (Wolfgang Grulke)

REKOMENDASI Be Literate ! Speak English !! Get Wired !!! Be Wireless !!!! Be Invisible !!!!!

So help us GOD !