Campaigns and Elections Political Competition in Democracy This presentation is the property of Dr. Kevin Parsneau for use by him and his current students. No other person may use or reprint without his permission.

What are the different types of elections in the U.S.?  Who runs for offices and who wins? How do voters decide? How do elections fit into the big picture for democracy? How are presidential elections different?

Responsiveness, democracy and a republic

Types of Elections General Elections Primaries and caucuses Presidential Midterm Primaries and caucuses Closed Open Types of Elections 1. Presidential Elections and Midterm (1st Tues after 1st Monday in Nov) Midterm elections every 2 years = all congressmen and 1/3 of senate (2002) Presidential elections every 4 years = president and VP plus all congressmen and 1/3 senate (2000 and 2004)   2. Primaries (secret ballots) and caucuses (meetings) Technically, there are primaries for any elected position Elections held by party to choose a nominee Each state party does its own thing Modified Open or Closed Primary Closed vs. Open Closed primary = only people registered for that party for a certain period before the primary Open = voters choose on the primary day which party’s primary they will vote in Open can be influenced by partisans for the other team

Types of Intra-party Elections Caucus– members of a party hold a meeting to select the their candidate for the general election. Primary– members of a party vote by secret ballot to select their candidate for the general election. Closed caucus or primary--only registered party members may take part. Open caucus or primary—any voter may take part in selecting the party’s candidate.

Who runs for Congress? White Elderly Males Lawyers Less now than in the past

Theoretical “Ideal” Campaign Median Voter Theory: (PARAPHRASE) the candidate that endorses policies that appeal to the “median voter” (i.e. the voter that represents the winning vote (50% +1)) will win the election. Thus candidates choose policies designed to win the vote of the “median voter.”

Campaigns Election Strategies Win Your Primary/ Caucus i.e. appeal to your party in the electorate Secures volunteers and contributions Win your general election i.e. appeal to moderates pick up undecided, low motivated and low info voters avoid abandoning your partisan supporters 2. Who wins (if you were going to predict an election)? Incumbency advantage House 98% re-election/ Senate 90% re-election Senate campaigns less incumbency advantage, more money, media attention Happen less often 1. proven winner 2. scare off opponents 3. constituency service—pork barrel 4. town hall meetings Name Recognition yard signs and bumper stickers (is a winner… people support the candidate) Largely based on name recognition with the incumbent usually winning

The “Shift” After trying to appeal to their party bases of relatively extreme and activist voters, candidates must shift their positions to attract moderate, independent and often less motivated or informed voters.

The “Shift” Two Potential Strategies Compromise-“move” to the center by changing your policy positions to centrists positions similar to the “median voter.” Crafted Talk-appear to change your positions by using language designed to sound centrist but that blurs your real positions and plans.

Crafted Talk (Jacobs and Shapiro) Candidates and campaign polling Often use polls not to determine the policy positions of voters, but which words appeal to voters and make them think the candidate agrees with them Select words and phrases chosen to seem centrist Portray your opponent as extreme 2. Who wins (if you were going to predict an election)? Incumbency advantage House 98% re-election/ Senate 90% re-election Senate campaigns less incumbency advantage, more money, media attention Happen less often 1. proven winner 2. scare off opponents 3. constituency service—pork barrel 4. town hall meetings Name Recognition yard signs and bumper stickers (is a winner… people support the candidate) Largely based on name recognition with the incumbent usually winning

Campaigns Who wins elections? Incumbency advantage Name recognition Constituency Service and “pork” “War chests” Coattails Final Steps to Winning the Campaign—G.O.T.V. 2. Who wins (if you were going to predict an election)? Incumbency advantage House 98% re-election/ Senate 90% re-election Senate campaigns less incumbency advantage, more money, media attention Happen less often 1. proven winner 2. scare off opponents 3. constituency service—pork barrel 4. town hall meetings Name Recognition yard signs and bumper stickers (is a winner… people support the candidate) Largely based on name recognition with the incumbent usually winning Constituency service and “pork” Incumbents as officeholders have the ability to use their office to help potential voters AND they can get credit for federal dollars spent to create jobs in the district/ state

How Do Voters Choose? Party Identification (PID) Party Platform Ideology Image Issues Party Identification (PID)—heuristic shortcut to navigate election and make decision Not just blindly voting for “team” The most informed people are usually the partisans Party Platform: statement of the general principles and goals of the party that politicians are expected to usually uphold Ideology   Image readily available supplied by candidates Individualized campaigns run on their own message and fundraising Issues—harder to decide on (R = PB-C+D) High cost to vote—not the most important thing in life Must learn issues Must decide which issues most important Must learn candidates’ positions on issues Must understand the difference Must weigh all those against each other

Elections and Responsiveness Prospective voting   Retrospective voting Sociotropic voting Elections and Responsiveness   Prospective voting—voting based upon how the candidate’s policies will affect him or her in the future Retrospective voting—voting based upon the candidate’s past performance Sociotropic voting—voting based upon the interests of the community over one’s own experience (but requires media for affects on the community)

Unique Aspects of Presidential Elections Presidential Primaries and Caucuses Go state by state winning delegates to the national conventions National Conventions Delegates and Superdelegates vote to select the party nominees General Election Campaigning for the Electoral College Unique Aspects of Presidential Elections Presidential Primaries National Conventions Delegates and Superdelegates Campaigning for the Electoral College Electors and faithless electors   Frontloading: Iowa, N.H., Super Tuesday Solid Red/ Blue States

Effects of the Electoral College 50 (51 w/ DC) separate elections for electors Have to win states not just votes Not only population centers and big cities Focus on big electoral states Focus on swing states Hard for third parties to compete Faithless electors Can have an “undemocratic” outcome

Is what it takes to get elected the same as what it takes to govern? Compromise Principles Rally support for yourself Vilify opponents Effect on turnout and faith in democracy Is what it takes to get elected the same as what it takes to govern? Compromise Principles Rally the public poisons the environment Negative on enemies who you’ll have to work with later Vilify opponents—decrease turnout/ less faith in democracy