GEOSHARE: Thoughts on Institutional Design David I Gustafson, Ph.D. Director, CIMSANS ILSI Research Foundation 10 September 2014

Outline What is CIMSANS? What are the key beneficial uses of GEOSHARE? What institutional design will maximize those benefits? 2

Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems Have Become Front Page News 3

Increases in Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events Floods Drought Heat waves Wind-storms Severe t-storms Tropical cyclones Super Storm Sandy (US East Coast 2012) Govindghat, India (2013) Pakistan (2010)Texas (2011) 4 Tacloban, Philippines (2013)

Third US National Climate Assessment: Innovation in Agriculture is Essential Impact of immediate mitigation Current trajectory 5 Global Average Temperatures Emissions Scenarios

Annual Rates of Yield Increases for Food Crops Vary with Technology Investment 6 Global rates of yield gain ( ), based on data available from FAOSTAT Rate Needed to Double Yields by 2050 Impact of Reducing Food Wastage by 30% 6

The Central Problem ILSI Research Foundation will foster scientific collaboration, new research, and data mining by leveraging a broader array of “tri-partite” scientists, resources, and partnerships 7 How can we manage food systems to improve global nutrition security in a more informed, collaborative, and sustainable manner?

CIMSANS Participants (“tri-partite”) Private Sector Academia Governments, etc. 8

CIMSANS Advisory Council named, first met in October 2013 Mark Rosegrant (IFPRI) – Chair; Swapan Datta (ICAR); Mark Howden (CSIRO); James Jones (U Florida); Josette Lewis (UC Davis); Marilia Nutti (EMPRAPA); Anne Roulin (Nestlé) Publications (three) appeared in peer-reviewed literature Successful meetings hosted and more are in planning Rome/FAO (Oct-2012); Dublin (Apr-2013); Tällberg (June-2013); Korea (Sept-2013); India (Nov-2013); DC (July-2014); Purdue (Sept-2014) Three Working Groups launched Open Data WG –GEOSHARE pilot, Open Data Processing Service Improved Modeling WG – Model Improvement Workshops Nutrition Security WG – White Paper released in May 2014 “Sustainable Nutrition Security” (SNS) Assessment CIMSANS: Current Status 9

SNS Assessment White Paper “Assessing Sustainable Nutrition Security: the Role of Food Systems” – Full version released on the CIMSANS web-site (May 2014) – An abridged version has been submitted to a peer-reviewed scientific journal (Global Food Security) Implementation of 3-year assessment work-plan – Announced (on July 29) a new partnership with AgMIP, IFPRI and others to conduct a first-of-its-kind “Sustainable Nutrition Security” (SNS) assessment – Seven novel SNS metrics – Includes all important staple and non-staple foods – Working with USGCRP to have this become a Special Report within the US NCA sustained assessment process 10

Potential Uses of GEOSHARE Become a preferred Open Data Portal for endorsed, high-quality geospatial datasets – House datasets for model and module improvement – Support development of integrated assessments Become a preferred Workflow Environment for integrated modeling and assessments – Collaborative prototyping of novel modeling approaches – Delivery of “interactive assessments” to stakeholders 11

Maximizing the Benefits of GEOSHARE Through Intentional Institutional Design Credibility and impact of assessments based on GEOSHARE-sourced data will be maximized via broad stakeholder engagement & endorsement Consider expanding the Advisory Board to include additional kinds of organizations – e-NGO’s (e.g. WWF) – Regional organizations (e.g. ASARECA) – Decision-makers – Others? 12