Urbanization and Transportation in North American Environmental key issues Rodolfo LACY CEC. North America 2030, An Environmental Outlook june, 2008

CLIMATE CHANGE … recent news “Global levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 0.6 percent, or 19 billion tons. Additionally, methane rose by 27 million tons after nearly a decade with little or no increase.” CO 2 reached 385 ppm CH 4 FUENTE: NOAA, 2008.

FUENTE: Ramanathan V and Carmichael G Global and Regional Climate Change due to Black Carbon. Nature Geosciences, Vol. 1, p Atmospheric solar heating due to BC for the 2001 to 2003 period Black Carbon Pollution Emerges As Major Player In Global Warming… …soot and other forms of black carbon could have as much as 60 percent of the current global warming effect of carbon dioxide.

Megacities can do the difference … NCAR MILAGRO project Mexico City Metropolitan Area GLOBAL CHANGES

Changes in surface O3 (ppbv) between 2000 and 2100 due to anthropogenic emission changes… SOURCE: G. Zeng, J. A. Pyle, and P. J. Young, Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global Budgets. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 369–387, 2008 SOURCE: CEC, The North American Mosaic: An Overview of Key Environmental Issues

Changes in surface O3 (ppbv) between 2000 and 2100 due to climate change… SOURCE: G. Zeng, J. A. Pyle, and P. J. Young, Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global Budgets. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 369–387, 2008

SOURCE: CEC, The North American Mosaic: An Overview of Key Environmental Issues Human Influence Index for North America (2000)

CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels TRANSPORT 23% 2005 … in 2050, 40% of the total increase will come from light duty vehicles SOURCE: IEA,2008.

IPCC SECTORAL MITIGATION POTENTIAL SOURCE: IPCC, WG3-AR4,.

Regulation Free Use Integrated spatial planning is the key to sustainable urban futures…

Reduction of vehicle energy consumption for all modes using existing technology for high-efficiency potential Development of strategies for non-transport alternatives, in combination with sustainable land use planning A modal shift to more environmentally-friendly modes, quickly implemented for passenger and freight transport Increased use of renewable energy in the transport sector as well, taking into account climate-efficiency as well as cost-efficiency, together with an optimal allocation of limited renewables in combination with safeguards against the increase of the carbon intensity of existing fossil fuels. Future Strategy To Face Transport Challenges … SOURCE: William & Flora Hewlett Foundation, Future Challenges of Transport and Environment

MOLINAs PROPOSAL FOR MEXICAN FUEL EFFICIENCY REGULATION SOURCE: ICCT, Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update years

GASOLINE DIESEL NATURAL GAS compressed liquified LPG Fossil Fuels COAL ~ ETHANOLBIODIESEL Biofuels BIOMASS METHANOL  HYDROGEN HYDROCARBONSWATER Electrolysis Hydrogen ~ Nuclear Fossil Renewable ELECTRICITY Electricity AIR TRANSPORT FUELS

SOURCE: WBCSD, Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges to sustainability Hypothetical potential of individual technologies to lower road transport Well-to-Wheels CO 2 emissions… …Mexico will produce corn ethanol for the US market and sugar cane ethanol for local consumption

SOIL LABOR SUGAR CANE HARVESTING FERTLIZERS & PESTICIDES VAPOR AND ELECTRICITY COGENERATION ALCOHOL REFINERIES LIQUID WASTE DISPOSAL ETHANOL STORAGE AND TRANSPORT ETHANOL DISTRIBUTION AND USE SUGAR CANE ETHANOL LIFE CYCLE Bagasse

AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY PETROCHEMICALS DEFORESTATION DAMS IRRIGATION INFRASTRUCTURE POWER PLANTS LCA BOUNDERIES EXPANSION

ENERGY BALANCE MJ/liter vs ethanol gasoline LCA MEXICO VS. BRASIL SOURCE: Centro Mario Molina. Motzorongo LCA.

GHG BALANCE % vs etanol gasoline ethanol LCA MEXICO VS. BRASIL SOURCE: Centro Mario Molina. Motzorongo LCA.

LCA BOUNDERIES EXPANSION … Searchinger et. al model GLOBAL LAND USE CHANGE TO PRODUCE FOOD GLOBAL LAND USE CHANGE TO PRODUCE FOOD  +50% -20%

GLOBAL LAND USE CHANGE TO PRODUCE FOOD GLOBAL LAND USE CHANGE TO PRODUCE FOOD  … Dr. Paul Crutzen model  3 to 5 times N 2 O emissions N2ON2O LCA BOUNDERIES EXPANSION … Searchinger et. al model … we need global LCA standars

FREIGHT OPTIONS How to move each ton? 230 kg CO 2 /ton 17 kg CO 2 / ton >1,000 kg CO 2 /ton

NO POLICY option… Old used, dirty, and unsafety cars, called “chocolates” in Mexico, exports from the huge US market Canada and Mexico are importing used cars from the more than 14 million used vehicles US market. In Mexico there is more used cars sales than new. Many environmental and safety problems in the highways and urban areas are increasing due to these vehicles. Mexico will open the border in “Loteros” Cd. Juárez, Chihuahua

“CHOCOLATES” >2,450,000 used vehicles from the US, 10 to 15 years old, were exported to Mexico in 2006 and %51% 21% SOURCE: Centro Mario Molina from SHCP data <6 Km/liter

Olymbus LPG Hybrid New Zeland Biogas Sweden NISSAN Diesel Hybrid Japan Sunbus Hydrogen EUA, ISE & Ford BUS RAPID TRANSIT OPTION METROBUS Mexico

CONCLUSIONS “Social and economic progress is facilitated by access and by connectivity, but not by kilometers driven… car dependency is connected with inefficient land-use structures” Transport demand reduction Shifting to cleaner travel modes Improvement of vehicle specific efficiency Alternative transport fuels Technology transfer & fair and sustainable markets in North America

¡GRACIAS !