50 years of change and a model for the future Cathy Parker and Simon #HSUK2020

Good morning and welcome  Welcome particularly to representatives of our partner towns: Alsager, Altrincham, Ballymena, Barnsley, Bristol (St George), Congleton, Holmfirth, Market Rasen, Morley and Wrexham

Welcome also to our international webinar participants Australia Canada Cyprus Germany Greece Italy Malaysia Netherlands Portugal Poland Sweden United Kingdom …and Isle of Man

Agenda – – – years of high street change & a model for the future Break Repositioning, reinventing, rebranding & restructuring your high #HSUK2020

Parliament June 2014

The challenge….and some #HSUK2020

Change in retailer location Out of town up 50 million square feet Town centre down 46 million square feet

100,000!

Loss won’t be uniform Centre for Retail Research 2013

Department for Transport 2011

Change in Tesco store format % of stores under 5000 sq ft 47% of stores over 25,000 sq ft Dawson J 2004

Generating 70% of retail sales retailers 100 retailers

Food Bulky goods Durable goods

Planning Statistical Release 4, DCLG, 2009 Percentage of newly built retail space in town centres: Actual Town Centre Town Centre plus 300 metres

Online retailing

Online share of home retailing 2014 Centre for Retail Research 2013

Growth Forecasts Online retailing 16% pa £52 bn in 2015 M-retailing 62% this year £7.92 bn Centre for Retail Research 2013

Town centre share of retail spend % % % Parliament 2014

The #HSUK2020

Vital & Viable Town Centres Planning Policy Guidance/Statements Business Improvement Districts High Street Britain 2015 The Portas Review Understanding High Street Performance Future High Streets Forum

Nature of TCM schemes IPM 2009

PWC 2008 Focus of TCM schemes

Action Attractions Amenity Accessibility The 4 As

Making things happen What the centre has to offer Experience within centre Getting into, out of, and around centre The 4 As Spatial Macro Meso factors

The #HSUK2020

10000 studies found2345 after clean up923 ‘retail’ highlighted253 town centre/high st173 studies

Review parameters 1.Type of study (empirical, exploratory, conceptual) 2.Methodological evidence 3.Data source (primary, secondary, tertiary) 4.Dependent variable (retail area performance measure) 5.Independent variables (factor affecting performance) 6.Significance (major findings and statistical significance if available) 7.Limitations (flaws, weaknesses etc.) 8.Author, date, publisher 9.Geographical location (UK, US, Europe, e.g.) 10.Size of retail/shopping centre (Different geographical scales of place, e.g. city centre, town centre, high street, neighbourhood centre, district centre, suburban centre)

Time in minutes per review Retail Restructuring and Consumer Choice 1: Long-term local changes in consumer behaviour: Portsmouth, mins US nationwide trends in metropolitan retail trade: A perspective of the mid 1980s

Most of the studies were empirical Empirical Conceptual Explanatory Historical Other

Most published in the last 10 years

Mostly from UK and Europe

City Centre Town Centre High Street Neighbourhood Centre District Centre Suburban Centre Out of town Centre Focus of data

166 factors influence performance

And if 166 factors were not enough….. Partner towns identified 50 additional factors that influence the High Street 33 additional studies reviewed 201 factors finally identified, but: – how much influence does each one have? – what should towns be focussing on?

The Delphi Technique The Delphi method is unique in its method of eliciting and refining group judgement as it is based on the notion that a group of experts is better than one expert when exact knowledge is not available. (Paliwoda, 1983).

22 Experts participated PractitionerAcademic Major retailerManchester Metropolitan University Shopping centres ownerUniversity of Leicester Urban consultantUniversity of Dundee Retail letting agencyUniversity of Ulster Urban policy groupOxford University Trade associationUniversity of Manchester Professional bodyUniversity of Liverpool University of Portsmouth University of Loughborough

Consensus reached on 1.How much influence each factor has on the vitality and viability of the High Street 2.How much control a location has over the factor

Spatial Macro Meso Micro You can’t control everything

The #HSUK2020

Influence relationships Weak inverse relationship between influence town has over factor and influence factor has over vitality and viability As a rule of thumb the more a factor influences vitality and viability, the less you can do about it Towns need to focus on factors they can influence, and where that influence will impact on vitality and viability

Not worth it!Get on with it! Forget it!Live with it!

Top 25 priorities

Forecasting the future of your high #HSUK2020

Spatial factors Location Distance to centre Size/Type of town Spatial structure Towns can’t do anything about these factors! High Street UK 2020

Macro factors Economy Consumer trends Business rates Ageing population Technology Retail planning policy Towns can’t change these on their own High Street UK 2020

Meso factors Barriers to entry Competition (other towns) Comparison/Convenience Out of town shopping Tenant variety Vacancy rates Towns interact with these/have some Influence High Street UK 2020

Micro factors Cleanliness Visual appearance Networking Opening Hours Attractions Centre Marketing Amenities Car-parking Entertainment Leadership High Street UK 2020

Macro Meso Micro Partnerships have % of potential influence Spatial RESULTS from #HSUK2020 towns

How much control do our HSUK2020 towns have?

“..lively, diverse, intense cities contain the seeds of their own regeneration…”

How do you manage change?Repositioning Dr Steve Millington Reinventing John Pal Rebranding Dr Mihalis Kavaratzis Restructuring Professor Deborah Peel